BTC briefly broke below the key $58k support level on Wednesday, touching a low around $57.7k before rebounding. A softer than expected headline nonfarm payrolls report on Thursday sparked a relief rally, pushing BTC back above $60k and as high as $61k overnight.
ETH led the recovery, climbing back above $1,700. That's almost 10% above its midweek low and well clear of the $1,500 support level that held up last week
Volatility Eases
The options market has quickly dialed back last week's panic. Front end implied volatility has given up most of its spike, with 1 week ATM IV falling from the mid-40s into the high-30s after peaking near 48. The term structure has also normalized, moving back into contango after briefly inverting during the sell off
Skew has softened as well. Front end risk reversals have come off their extremes, although downside protection is still in demand. One to two week puts continue to trade at a 10 to 13 volatility premium over ATM options, suggesting investors are still paying up for protection, just not with the same urgency
Flow data tells a similar story. The busiest July contracts on Thursday were calls in the $63k to $66k range, mainly in the 10 July and 31 July expiries. July put to call volume fell to 0.6, pointing to a more constructive tone. On the downside, larger positions have shifted into the 17 July $56k and 31 July $50k puts. Today's expiry also removes a meaningful amount of open interest in the $56k to $58k put strikes, which may help keep BTC trading around the $60k level. With realized volatility running in the low 30s and implied volatility still in the high 30s, option sellers are once again collecting a positive volatility premium
Soft Headline, Tougher Underneath
While the headline payroll number missed expectations, the rest of the report was far less dovish. Wage growth accelerated, unemployment declined, and consumer spending remains resilient. Together, those signals point more toward a tightening labor market than weakening demand, giving the Fed little reason to change its stance because of one softer payroll print
Inflation also remains sticky. Core PCE continued to rise last week, while PPI excluding food, energy, and transportation is still running at 5.1%, even after oil prices have fallen significantly from their April highs. The new Fed Chair also has reason to maintain a hawkish tone early in the role to build credibility, and Warsh's comments so far have reflected that approach
Rate Cuts Still Look Premature
Markets have shifted expectations for the next rate hike from September to December, but other asset classes are not fully buying into a policy pivot
Treasuries barely reacted. The 10 year yield remains around 4.47%, close to the mid-May highs reached after inflation surprised to the upside. That suggests the bond market is not convinced the Fed is turning more dovish
Equities sent mixed signals. The S&P 500 finished little changed, while the Nasdaq fell 1.7% as concerns around AI-related valuations resurfaced.
Gold delivered the clearest dovish reaction, rising 2%. Even so, that move looks more like demand for a safe haven and lower real rates than a stronger view on economic growth
Crypto is beginning to look more constructive. Spot BTC ETFs recorded $224 million of inflows on Thursday, ending a six-session streak of outflows. It was the first positive day in more than a week and suggests buyers are starting to return after roughly $2.4 billion in recent redemptions.
The next major test comes with the 14 July CPI release and 15 July PPI data ahead of the month-end FOMC meeting. Those reports are likely to determine whether markets continue to price a more dovish outlook. For now, improving ETF flows suggest spot demand is stabilizing. With U.S markets closed today and liquidity expected to stay light through the long weekend, volatility is likely to remain elevated in both directions
Key Events
-Tentative: Second round of U.S.-Iran talks
-Monday, 6 July: ISM Services PMI (June)
-Wednesday, 8 July: June FOMC meeting minutes
-Thursday, 9 July: Initial Jobless Claims
What do you think? Is this the start of a sustained move higher, or just a relief bounce before the next leg down?
ETH led the recovery, climbing back above $1,700. That's almost 10% above its midweek low and well clear of the $1,500 support level that held up last week
Volatility Eases
The options market has quickly dialed back last week's panic. Front end implied volatility has given up most of its spike, with 1 week ATM IV falling from the mid-40s into the high-30s after peaking near 48. The term structure has also normalized, moving back into contango after briefly inverting during the sell off
Skew has softened as well. Front end risk reversals have come off their extremes, although downside protection is still in demand. One to two week puts continue to trade at a 10 to 13 volatility premium over ATM options, suggesting investors are still paying up for protection, just not with the same urgency
Flow data tells a similar story. The busiest July contracts on Thursday were calls in the $63k to $66k range, mainly in the 10 July and 31 July expiries. July put to call volume fell to 0.6, pointing to a more constructive tone. On the downside, larger positions have shifted into the 17 July $56k and 31 July $50k puts. Today's expiry also removes a meaningful amount of open interest in the $56k to $58k put strikes, which may help keep BTC trading around the $60k level. With realized volatility running in the low 30s and implied volatility still in the high 30s, option sellers are once again collecting a positive volatility premium
Soft Headline, Tougher Underneath
While the headline payroll number missed expectations, the rest of the report was far less dovish. Wage growth accelerated, unemployment declined, and consumer spending remains resilient. Together, those signals point more toward a tightening labor market than weakening demand, giving the Fed little reason to change its stance because of one softer payroll print
Inflation also remains sticky. Core PCE continued to rise last week, while PPI excluding food, energy, and transportation is still running at 5.1%, even after oil prices have fallen significantly from their April highs. The new Fed Chair also has reason to maintain a hawkish tone early in the role to build credibility, and Warsh's comments so far have reflected that approach
Rate Cuts Still Look Premature
Markets have shifted expectations for the next rate hike from September to December, but other asset classes are not fully buying into a policy pivot
Treasuries barely reacted. The 10 year yield remains around 4.47%, close to the mid-May highs reached after inflation surprised to the upside. That suggests the bond market is not convinced the Fed is turning more dovish
Equities sent mixed signals. The S&P 500 finished little changed, while the Nasdaq fell 1.7% as concerns around AI-related valuations resurfaced.
Gold delivered the clearest dovish reaction, rising 2%. Even so, that move looks more like demand for a safe haven and lower real rates than a stronger view on economic growth
Crypto is beginning to look more constructive. Spot BTC ETFs recorded $224 million of inflows on Thursday, ending a six-session streak of outflows. It was the first positive day in more than a week and suggests buyers are starting to return after roughly $2.4 billion in recent redemptions.
The next major test comes with the 14 July CPI release and 15 July PPI data ahead of the month-end FOMC meeting. Those reports are likely to determine whether markets continue to price a more dovish outlook. For now, improving ETF flows suggest spot demand is stabilizing. With U.S markets closed today and liquidity expected to stay light through the long weekend, volatility is likely to remain elevated in both directions
Key Events
-Tentative: Second round of U.S.-Iran talks
-Monday, 6 July: ISM Services PMI (June)
-Wednesday, 8 July: June FOMC meeting minutes
-Thursday, 9 July: Initial Jobless Claims
What do you think? Is this the start of a sustained move higher, or just a relief bounce before the next leg down?
การซื้อขายยังคงดำเนินอยู่
Bitcoin has started July on a strong note, which lines up with its typical seasonal pattern. After what is often a weaker June, July has historically been one of Bitcoin's best performing months, delivering an average return of 7.5%The rebound has also been helped by quieter market conditions over the long Independence Day weekend. With the U.S. observing the Fourth of July holiday and Iran holding the funeral for the late Ayatollah Khamenei, trading activity was relatively subdued. That allowed the positive reaction to Thursday's weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report to carry into the extended weekend with few major distractions.
Thursday's employment data showed June nonfarm payrolls increased by just 57,000, about half of what economists had expected. While additional rate hikes remain a possibility this year, the softer report leaves Fed Chair Warsh dealing with a difficult mix of challenges: a cooling labour market, inflation that remains stubbornly high, and growing political pressure to loosen monetary policy.
Volatility Eases as Crypto Stays Resilient
Despite the uncertain macro backdrop, crypto markets have held up well. After finding support around $58,000, Bitcoin has recovered, while implied volatility has gradually moved lower. At the same time, near-term put skew has eased from recent highs, suggesting downside hedging has become less aggressive
Options activity also showed notable interest in $70,000 calls expiring at the end of July, which may reflect expectations that Bitcoin's historically strong July performance could continue.
Not everyone is convinced the recovery will last. Some investors have compared the current setup to 2022, when Bitcoin briefly climbed back above its 200-week moving average in July following a sharp sell-off, only to resume falling in August before eventually reaching its cycle low in October. That caution is still visible in the options market, where demand for year-end $58,000 puts remains strong
Bulls Gain Some Breathing Room
It's too early to know whether history will follow the same path, but the near-term outlook has improved, especially if spot Bitcoin ETFs continue attracting inflows after Friday's reversal, which ended more than a week of steady outflows.
A convincing move back above $64,000 would further strengthen sentiment and could also ease some of the recent concerns surrounding Strategy. For now, buyers have regained some control, but there is still plenty of work to do before the broader trend can be considered secure.
Dont forget these Key Events
Monday, 6 July: ISM Services PMI
Wednesday, 8 July: FOMC Meeting Minutes
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คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน