Trading Idea: Short CADJPY & USDJPY
Date: August 14, 2025
Strategy Type: Short-term bearish play on JPY crosses
📰 Key News Drivers
- Japan GDP Data (Q2 Preliminary):
- QoQ: 0.0% (flat growth)
- YoY: -0.2% (mild contraction)
- GDP Deflator YoY: 3.3% (strong inflation signal)
- USDJPY Technical Outlook:
- Current price: ~146.60
- Bearish momentum confirmed by moving averages
- Key support: 146.386
- Break below 146.500 could trigger further downside
- JPY Strength Factors:
- Modest improvement in Japan’s M2 Money Stock
- Lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data weakening USD
- Risk-off sentiment favoring safe-haven JPY
📊 Trade Rationale
| Pair | Bearish Catalyst | Technical Setup | Target Zone |
| USDJPY | Weak U.S. inflation + strong JPY deflator | Testing support at 146.386 | 146.00 or lower |
| CADJPY | CAD vulnerable to oil price volatility + JPY strength | Likely to follow USDJPY breakdown | 106.50–107.00 |
- JPY Strength Thesis: Despite flat GDP growth, the strong deflator suggests inflationary pressure, which may prompt the BoJ to maintain or tighten policy. This supports JPY appreciation.
- USD Weakness: Lower inflation expectations in the U.S. reduce the likelihood of further Fed hikes, weakening USD.
- CAD Vulnerability: CADJPY often correlates with risk sentiment and oil prices. With JPY gaining and global risk tone cautious, CADJPY is exposed.
📌 Execution Plan
- USDJPY:
- Entry: Short below 146.50
- Stop: 147.10
- Target: 146.00 / 145.50
- CADJPY:
- Entry: Short below 107.50
- Stop: 108.20
- Target: 106.50 / 106.00
Date: August 14, 2025
Strategy Type: Short-term bearish play on JPY crosses
📰 Key News Drivers
- Japan GDP Data (Q2 Preliminary):
- QoQ: 0.0% (flat growth)
- YoY: -0.2% (mild contraction)
- GDP Deflator YoY: 3.3% (strong inflation signal)
- USDJPY Technical Outlook:
- Current price: ~146.60
- Bearish momentum confirmed by moving averages
- Key support: 146.386
- Break below 146.500 could trigger further downside
- JPY Strength Factors:
- Modest improvement in Japan’s M2 Money Stock
- Lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data weakening USD
- Risk-off sentiment favoring safe-haven JPY
📊 Trade Rationale
| Pair | Bearish Catalyst | Technical Setup | Target Zone |
| USDJPY | Weak U.S. inflation + strong JPY deflator | Testing support at 146.386 | 146.00 or lower |
| CADJPY | CAD vulnerable to oil price volatility + JPY strength | Likely to follow USDJPY breakdown | 106.50–107.00 |
- JPY Strength Thesis: Despite flat GDP growth, the strong deflator suggests inflationary pressure, which may prompt the BoJ to maintain or tighten policy. This supports JPY appreciation.
- USD Weakness: Lower inflation expectations in the U.S. reduce the likelihood of further Fed hikes, weakening USD.
- CAD Vulnerability: CADJPY often correlates with risk sentiment and oil prices. With JPY gaining and global risk tone cautious, CADJPY is exposed.
📌 Execution Plan
- USDJPY:
- Entry: Short below 146.50
- Stop: 147.10
- Target: 146.00 / 145.50
- CADJPY:
- Entry: Short below 107.50
- Stop: 108.20
- Target: 106.50 / 106.00
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t.me/strengthboosters
~1 Forex setup per day. With ICT setup for intraday trading —— Accuracy +80%
-Booster highlight:
US stocks and Crypto watch list update each weekend.
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน
🔥my free signals and AI trading indicators channel telegram
t.me/strengthboosters
~1 Forex setup per day. With ICT setup for intraday trading —— Accuracy +80%
-Booster highlight:
US stocks and Crypto watch list update each weekend.
t.me/strengthboosters
~1 Forex setup per day. With ICT setup for intraday trading —— Accuracy +80%
-Booster highlight:
US stocks and Crypto watch list update each weekend.
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน