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ETH looks in terrible shape

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After a mega run up over the new year, ETH has fallen on some hard times.

Right now, ETH is below the daily 20EMA and 50MA; typically this means a move to the 200MA is the next likely target. There are other bearish patterns in the mix as well including a large bear pennant and small bear flag.

The first target for ETH will be ~$600. We should see a large bounce, like it's prior low at the start of Feb. If this fails to hold a target of around $300 is in play, but lets cross that bridge if we get to it.
บันทึก
We've been basically sideways for a couple of days and we are starting to see some sell off due to a pull back in BTC.

We are kind of in no-mans-land at the moment but I'm hoping over the next day or so we get a more decisive move:

สแนปชอต
บันทึก
We certainly got our decisive move:

สแนปชอต

Right on track....
บันทึก
Another day of selling สแนปชอต
บันทึก
We have gone as low as $640, formed a daily hammer but failed to reverse. We are currently trading at $668, but looking at the TD indicator we have at least 2 more days of downside to come. I believe we have almost exhausted the 78.6 support and we will head to the 200MA (~$600) by tomorrow or Monday (EST).

สแนปชอต

As I mentioned in the original post, I believe we should see a bounce at the 200MA, but I'm not confident it will be a reversal.
บันทึก
We have hit our first target of the 200MA. Due to how quickly this final level was run, this may not hold for very long. I'll have an update in a few hours once a bit more price data comes in.

สแนปชอต
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I'm going to close out this idea since it hit the original 200MA target of ~$600.

I believe it is going to continue down further because we haven't seen the sizeable bounce we needed, but I will create a new idea to explore it further.

In the meantime, here is the chart as it stands now: a bear pennant with a target of around $480-$520. There's some confluence with the bear flag and pennant which just strengthens the case.

สแนปชอต
บันทึก
Our bear pennant turned into a bear flag:
สแนปชอต

Watch for a break down below $580 for confirmation and above $630 for invalidation.

We are just holding onto the daily 200MA, and as I've said before, in a down trend, the longer we stay on support, the more likely we are to break it.

สแนปชอต

I say we are still on track to break this over the next 24hrs
บันทึก
As I said above, a break would happen in 24hrs, and it certainly did:

สแนปชอต

And now we are trading below the 1D 200MA.

สแนปชอต

I think the likely targets are:
1. $450-$480
2. $300

Obviously it won't go there in a straight line, but over the next few weeks I expect the 2nd target to hit unless something miraculous happens.

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