📌 X WEEKLY TRADE PLAN — EURCAD
🏷️ Status
CONDITIONAL TRADE PLAN
🎯 Trade Idea
SELL the corrective rally into H4 resistance.
Price has already travelled down toward the 1.6000 support area, so selling at 1.6030 would be late. The trade must come from the next lower-high supply zone.
📘 Trade Type
Tactical Corrective Sell / H4 Trend Pullback
📍 Entry Plan
Order Type: Conditional Sell Entry: Sell the first retest after H4 rejection inside the Preferred Execution Band.
Main POI Zone: 1.6085–1.6120 [H4 lower-high supply and previous breakdown area]
Preferred Execution Band: 1.6090–1.6105 [Best premium area for the corrective short]
Set-and-Forget Eligible: NO Monday CAD CPI is immediate event risk, the D1 chart is approaching support, and the recent ECB tightening backdrop conflicts with blind EUR selling.
POI Logic: Bearish H4 structure + rally into lower-high resistance + structural invalidation above supply + sufficient room toward the lower D1 range boundary.
🛑 Stop Loss
SL: 1.6145 [The bearish H4 pullback thesis is wrong above this resistance block]
🎯 Targets
TP1: 1.6000 [First major support and de-risk level]
TP2: 1.5920 [Main D1 range-low objective]
TP3: 1.5850 [Runner only after a confirmed D1/H4 breakdown]
📊 Risk / Reward
Approximate RR to TP2: 1:3.2–1:3.6 Risk: 0.50% maximum
Fundamental alignment is Conflicting, so this does not qualify for increased risk.
✅ Activation
Trade is not active now.
Activate only if:
1. Price rallies into 1.6085–1.6120.
2. An H4 candle closes back below 1.6080, confirming that the rally has failed.
3. Price provides the first retest into 1.6090–1.6105.
Do not enter if the rejection has already driven price below 1.6060 before the retest.
⚠️ Cancel Trade If
* H4 accepts above 1.6145.
* Price reaches 1.6000 before entry.
* Monday’s CAD CPI spikes through and consumes the POI.
* The ECB decision causes stable H4 acceptance above resistance.
* Price rejects from the POI but gives no retest—do not chase.
* The setup remains unfilled by Friday New York close.
*
📰 News Side Note
CAD-positive CPI or retail data supports EURCAD downside; weak CAD data makes the sell more dangerous. A hawkish ECB outcome supports EUR and cancels the short if price accepts above invalidation. Mixed results mean no first-spike execution. (Forex Factory)
🛡️ Trade Management
TP1: Reduce exposure at 1.6000 because this is the first clear daily support area and the trade is corrective rather than a clean D1 trend continuation. If price cannot close below it, do not let the position return to full risk.
TP2: This is the main daily range-low objective. Book most here because the 1.5920 area previously produced a meaningful recovery and may attract buyers again.
TP3: Hold only a small remainder if H4 and D1 accept below 1.5920. A quick reclaim above the range floor means the downside extension has failed.
📝 Trader Note
Price has already fallen from 1.6250 and is now too close to 1.6000 support for a professional market short. Wait for the corrective rally into 1.6085–1.6120 and require sellers to reject that block before acting. If price trades 1.6000 before entry, the opportunity is missed. Acceptance above 1.6145 cancels the plan, and nothing should be chased lower.
🏷️ Status
CONDITIONAL TRADE PLAN
🎯 Trade Idea
SELL the corrective rally into H4 resistance.
Price has already travelled down toward the 1.6000 support area, so selling at 1.6030 would be late. The trade must come from the next lower-high supply zone.
📘 Trade Type
Tactical Corrective Sell / H4 Trend Pullback
📍 Entry Plan
Order Type: Conditional Sell Entry: Sell the first retest after H4 rejection inside the Preferred Execution Band.
Main POI Zone: 1.6085–1.6120 [H4 lower-high supply and previous breakdown area]
Preferred Execution Band: 1.6090–1.6105 [Best premium area for the corrective short]
Set-and-Forget Eligible: NO Monday CAD CPI is immediate event risk, the D1 chart is approaching support, and the recent ECB tightening backdrop conflicts with blind EUR selling.
POI Logic: Bearish H4 structure + rally into lower-high resistance + structural invalidation above supply + sufficient room toward the lower D1 range boundary.
🛑 Stop Loss
SL: 1.6145 [The bearish H4 pullback thesis is wrong above this resistance block]
🎯 Targets
TP1: 1.6000 [First major support and de-risk level]
TP2: 1.5920 [Main D1 range-low objective]
TP3: 1.5850 [Runner only after a confirmed D1/H4 breakdown]
📊 Risk / Reward
Approximate RR to TP2: 1:3.2–1:3.6 Risk: 0.50% maximum
Fundamental alignment is Conflicting, so this does not qualify for increased risk.
✅ Activation
Trade is not active now.
Activate only if:
1. Price rallies into 1.6085–1.6120.
2. An H4 candle closes back below 1.6080, confirming that the rally has failed.
3. Price provides the first retest into 1.6090–1.6105.
Do not enter if the rejection has already driven price below 1.6060 before the retest.
⚠️ Cancel Trade If
* H4 accepts above 1.6145.
* Price reaches 1.6000 before entry.
* Monday’s CAD CPI spikes through and consumes the POI.
* The ECB decision causes stable H4 acceptance above resistance.
* Price rejects from the POI but gives no retest—do not chase.
* The setup remains unfilled by Friday New York close.
*
📰 News Side Note
CAD-positive CPI or retail data supports EURCAD downside; weak CAD data makes the sell more dangerous. A hawkish ECB outcome supports EUR and cancels the short if price accepts above invalidation. Mixed results mean no first-spike execution. (Forex Factory)
🛡️ Trade Management
TP1: Reduce exposure at 1.6000 because this is the first clear daily support area and the trade is corrective rather than a clean D1 trend continuation. If price cannot close below it, do not let the position return to full risk.
TP2: This is the main daily range-low objective. Book most here because the 1.5920 area previously produced a meaningful recovery and may attract buyers again.
TP3: Hold only a small remainder if H4 and D1 accept below 1.5920. A quick reclaim above the range floor means the downside extension has failed.
📝 Trader Note
Price has already fallen from 1.6250 and is now too close to 1.6000 support for a professional market short. Wait for the corrective rally into 1.6085–1.6120 and require sellers to reject that block before acting. If price trades 1.6000 before entry, the opportunity is missed. Acceptance above 1.6145 cancels the plan, and nothing should be chased lower.
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คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน