🔹 COT (Commitment of Traders)
GBP Futures: Non-commercial longs increased (+3,704) while shorts decreased (-912) → speculators are turning more bullish on the Pound. Commercials slightly increased shorts (-1,853) but remain largely neutral.
Euro Futures: Non-commercial longs decreased (-789) while shorts increased (+2,625) → signaling bearish pressure on the Euro.
📌 Combined Result: Clear imbalance in favor of GBP, with stronger net positioning compared to the Euro.
🔹 FX Sentiment (retail positioning)
EUR/GBP: 87% short vs 13% long.
📌 Extremely skewed retail positioning → contrarian signal → short-term upside potential for EUR/GBP, but macro context still favors GBP strength.
🔹 Seasonality
September and October show a historically neutral to slightly bearish bias over 15–20 years.
November–December tend to favor the Euro with seasonal rebounds.
📌 In the short term, there is no strong seasonal support for an EUR/GBP rally.
🔹 Price Action
Strong rejection from the 0.8740–0.8760 supply zone, with consolidation below resistance.
Possible retracement toward demand area 0.8660–0.8680, aligning with the dynamic trendline.
RSI is neutral, no major divergences, but momentum is cooling.
Structure remains bullish only above 0.8760; otherwise, risk of reversal toward 0.8620–0.8600.
GBP Futures: Non-commercial longs increased (+3,704) while shorts decreased (-912) → speculators are turning more bullish on the Pound. Commercials slightly increased shorts (-1,853) but remain largely neutral.
Euro Futures: Non-commercial longs decreased (-789) while shorts increased (+2,625) → signaling bearish pressure on the Euro.
📌 Combined Result: Clear imbalance in favor of GBP, with stronger net positioning compared to the Euro.
🔹 FX Sentiment (retail positioning)
EUR/GBP: 87% short vs 13% long.
📌 Extremely skewed retail positioning → contrarian signal → short-term upside potential for EUR/GBP, but macro context still favors GBP strength.
🔹 Seasonality
September and October show a historically neutral to slightly bearish bias over 15–20 years.
November–December tend to favor the Euro with seasonal rebounds.
📌 In the short term, there is no strong seasonal support for an EUR/GBP rally.
🔹 Price Action
Strong rejection from the 0.8740–0.8760 supply zone, with consolidation below resistance.
Possible retracement toward demand area 0.8660–0.8680, aligning with the dynamic trendline.
RSI is neutral, no major divergences, but momentum is cooling.
Structure remains bullish only above 0.8760; otherwise, risk of reversal toward 0.8620–0.8600.
การซื้อขายยังคงดำเนินอยู่
Institutional are buying GBP, waiting for a good signals to enter on the market
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
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ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน