My current view on EURJPY remains constructive, although price is testing a key technical area and must hold support to preserve the bullish structure. On the daily timeframe, the pair is retracing into the 182.00–183.00 demand zone after failing to break higher. I still interpret this as a correction within a broader uptrend rather than a confirmed reversal. Price continues to hold above the rising trendline and the base formed since mid-February. As long as 181.45–180.70 remains intact, I consider pullbacks as retracements. On the upside, I’m watching 184.60–184.90 first, with higher resistance around 186.00–186.20.
The COT data supports this view. EUR positioning is slightly net long, indicating no structural weakness, while JPY remains clearly bearish with increasing short exposure. This reinforces a favorable macro backdrop for EURJPY as long as yen pressure persists.
Seasonality is also aligned, with March historically positive and no significant deterioration expected into April. While not a trigger, it supports the broader directional bias.
Retail sentiment adds a contrarian signal, with around 65% of traders short. Combined with price holding support and institutional positioning, this suggests downside may remain limited unless support breaks decisively.
Overall, I maintain a mildly bullish bias. I’m watching for stabilization around 182.00–183.00 and a potential move toward 184.70, then 186.00+. A break below 181.45 would open the door to a deeper retracement toward 180.70 and shift my stance to neutral.
The COT data supports this view. EUR positioning is slightly net long, indicating no structural weakness, while JPY remains clearly bearish with increasing short exposure. This reinforces a favorable macro backdrop for EURJPY as long as yen pressure persists.
Seasonality is also aligned, with March historically positive and no significant deterioration expected into April. While not a trigger, it supports the broader directional bias.
Retail sentiment adds a contrarian signal, with around 65% of traders short. Combined with price holding support and institutional positioning, this suggests downside may remain limited unless support breaks decisively.
Overall, I maintain a mildly bullish bias. I’m watching for stabilization around 182.00–183.00 and a potential move toward 184.70, then 186.00+. A break below 181.45 would open the door to a deeper retracement toward 180.70 and shift my stance to neutral.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
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📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน