The 
EURUSD EURUSD currency pair demonstrated strong resilience by rebounding from the psychological 1.1600 level during Thursday's Asian session.
The euro's move successfully erased most of its daily losses from its previous weekly low, capitalizing on easing tensions on the Lebanon-Israel border, although tomorrow's major employment data release limited any aggressive upward movement.
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✅ Fundamental Dynamics: Beirut Ceasefire vs. Gulf Missile War
The euro's direction today is driven by complex geopolitical confluence and central bank divergences:
- Lebanon-Israel Peace Pact: Risk-on sentiment received a boost after Lebanon and Israel formally agreed to a ceasefire at an emergency meeting in Washington. This diplomatic success eased fears of a full-blown regional war and immediately curtailed the strength of the US dollar (USD) as a safe haven asset.
- 🔸Missile Rain in the Gulf Remains Fiery: On the other hand, the de-escalation in Lebanon contrasts with the situation in the Persian Gulf. The direct exchange of fire between the US military (CENTCOM) launching an attack on Qeshm Island and the retaliatory Iranian armed forces raining missiles/drones on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain continues to keep the macro risk premium active.
- 🔸Monetary Divergence (ECB 25bp vs Fed 50%): The euro is gaining internal strength as bets mount that the European Central Bank (ECB) will raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its meeting this month to tame eurozone inflation.
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✅Technical Analysis: Maintaining the Daily Round Number Floor (H4)
Technically, EUR/USD's ability to bounce just above the 1.1600 round number level confirms the accumulation of institutional defensive buyers.
- 🔸Caution Ahead of NFP: Although the price moved up daily towards the mid-1.1600 area, sustained appreciation is projected to be contained. Large market participants (institutions) are likely to refrain from placing aggressive bullish positions before the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.
- 🔸Nearest Resistance Test: Any intraday recovery will immediately encounter a supply barrier at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level in the 1.1675-1.1680 range. The euro needs a daily close above this area to trigger a more robust recovery.
EURUSD EURUSD currency pair demonstrated strong resilience by rebounding from the psychological 1.1600 level during Thursday's Asian session.The euro's move successfully erased most of its daily losses from its previous weekly low, capitalizing on easing tensions on the Lebanon-Israel border, although tomorrow's major employment data release limited any aggressive upward movement.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
✅ Fundamental Dynamics: Beirut Ceasefire vs. Gulf Missile War
The euro's direction today is driven by complex geopolitical confluence and central bank divergences:
- Lebanon-Israel Peace Pact: Risk-on sentiment received a boost after Lebanon and Israel formally agreed to a ceasefire at an emergency meeting in Washington. This diplomatic success eased fears of a full-blown regional war and immediately curtailed the strength of the US dollar (USD) as a safe haven asset.
- 🔸Missile Rain in the Gulf Remains Fiery: On the other hand, the de-escalation in Lebanon contrasts with the situation in the Persian Gulf. The direct exchange of fire between the US military (CENTCOM) launching an attack on Qeshm Island and the retaliatory Iranian armed forces raining missiles/drones on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain continues to keep the macro risk premium active.
- 🔸Monetary Divergence (ECB 25bp vs Fed 50%): The euro is gaining internal strength as bets mount that the European Central Bank (ECB) will raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its meeting this month to tame eurozone inflation.
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✅Technical Analysis: Maintaining the Daily Round Number Floor (H4)
Technically, EUR/USD's ability to bounce just above the 1.1600 round number level confirms the accumulation of institutional defensive buyers.
- 🔸Caution Ahead of NFP: Although the price moved up daily towards the mid-1.1600 area, sustained appreciation is projected to be contained. Large market participants (institutions) are likely to refrain from placing aggressive bullish positions before the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.
- 🔸Nearest Resistance Test: Any intraday recovery will immediately encounter a supply barrier at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level in the 1.1675-1.1680 range. The euro needs a daily close above this area to trigger a more robust recovery.
การนำเสนอที่เกี่ยวข้อง
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน
การนำเสนอที่เกี่ยวข้อง
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน