การศึกษา

#AN027: US Shutdown Agreement, Effects on the Dollar and Forex

The historic political impasse in the United States – with the 2025 United States federal government shutdown – appears to be nearing a resolution. Hello, I'm Forex Trader Andrea Russo, an independent trader and prop trader with $200,000 in capital under management. Thank you in advance for your time.

A Senate agreement provides for the reopening of the federal government through a continuing resolution, with the reinstatement of public employees' arrears.

In the FX context, this event has immediate and medium-term implications for the US dollar (USD) and major global currencies. In this article, we analyze the dynamics and provide a guide for those trading on TradingView.

What Happened

The Senate obtained an initial procedural yes to the resolution to reopen the government.

Markets are showing initial relief: the US dollar has halted its recent bullish momentum, pending operational confirmation.

The government shutdown had already caused delays in economic data and a climate of political uncertainty that is hindering the Federal Reserve's clear definition of monetary strategies.

Impact on Forex: Key Factors

1. Political Risk Effect and Sentiment

With the prospect of an end to the shutdown, the risk premium associated with the US government and fiscal governance is decreasing. This tends to favor the dollar in the short term, especially against safe-haven currencies. However, sentiment remains cautious, given the residual uncertainty.

2. Delayed Macroeconomic Data and Volatility

The lack or delay in the release of economic data (e.g., employment, inflation) complicates forecasting the Fed's moves and reduces traders' ability to confidently position themselves on the USD.

3. Yields and Carry Trades

If the agreement fuels an improvement in the US economic profile, US bond yields could rise, attracting flows into the dollar. On the other hand, if the economy shows signs of post-shutdown weakness, the effect could reverse.

4. Technical scenarios in major FX pairs

EUR/USD: Possible dollar rebound → downward pressure on EUR/USD. However, if US data deteriorates, a strong USD-weak trend could be triggered.

USD/JPY: The dollar could benefit from rising yields + carry trades; but a safe-haven turn on the yen if global risks emerge.

GBP/USD / AUD/USD: Commodity or risk-linked currencies could benefit from risk-on, but a strong dollar will limit rebounds.

Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP

If you’re looking for:
✅ Precise TAKE PROFIT
✅ Precise STOP LOSS
🚀 Join Telegram Channel: t.me/swipeuptrading

📖 NEW BOOK - Avaiable on Amazon
Title: The Institutional Code of Forex

🌐 My Website: andrearussoforextrader.com

และใน:

คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ

ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน

Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP

และใน: