Bias: Bearish continuation remains the higher-probability setup, but the pair is short-term oversold, so the cleaner execution is to sell a failed rebound rather than chase the low.
Macro Backdrop
The macro setup from the weekly research favours the USD over the EUR in the near term.
The key driver is the repricing of global rates. U.S. inflation pressure, firm Treasury yields, and “higher-for-longer” Fed pricing keep the dollar supported as both a yield currency and a defensive currency. EUR/USD is also being pressured by the ECB potentially remaining hawkish despite weaker euro area growth, which creates a less supportive mix for the euro.
High-Probability Setup: Bearish Continuation
Setup quality: Higher probability if price rejects below 1.1665–1.1675
Trade type: Trend-continuation short
Entry Zone: 1.1640 –1.1668
Stop Loss: 1.1715 (The stop sits above the 1H 200 EMA and the 4H resistance cluster around 1.1700–1.1710. A clean move above this area would weaken the bearish thesis.)
TP1: 1.1600
TP2: 1.1555
TP3: 1.1490
Reason
This is the cleaner bearish setup because it avoids shorting directly into a short-term oversold condition. The 4H and 1H structures are bearish, price is below the key EMA clusters, MACD remains negative, and macro conditions still favour USD resilience.
Aggressive Bearish Setup: Breakdown Retest
Setup quality: Strong only if there is a clean break and retest
Trade type: Momentum continuation short
Entry: 1.1590–1.1605 (Only after price breaks below 1.1600 and retests it as resistance.)
SL: 1.1645
TP1: 1.1560
TP2: 1.1500
TP3: 1.1415
Reason
This setup has better risk-reward but lower quality than the rally short because the price is already stretched on the 4H RSI. It only becomes attractive if 1.1600 breaks with momentum and then fails on a retest. Avoid chasing the first break if the candle is already extended.
Bull Case Trade Idea: Reclaim and Mean Reversion
Setup quality: Improves materially above 1.1665–1.1710
Trade type: Counter-trend recovery / mean reversion
Entry Zone: 1.1665–1.1680
SL: 1.1615
TP1: 1.1710
TP2: 1.1765
TP2: 1.1765
Reason
The bullish case is mainly a short-covering and mean-reversion thesis, not yet a trend reversal thesis. The 4H RSI is oversold, the 15M MACD is stabilising, and the 1H RSI has started recovering from depressed levels. That creates room for a bounce. However, the bullish setup only improves if EUR/USD reclaims 1.1665 and then 1.1700–1.1710. Without that, the larger trend remains bearish.
Macro Backdrop
The macro setup from the weekly research favours the USD over the EUR in the near term.
The key driver is the repricing of global rates. U.S. inflation pressure, firm Treasury yields, and “higher-for-longer” Fed pricing keep the dollar supported as both a yield currency and a defensive currency. EUR/USD is also being pressured by the ECB potentially remaining hawkish despite weaker euro area growth, which creates a less supportive mix for the euro.
High-Probability Setup: Bearish Continuation
Setup quality: Higher probability if price rejects below 1.1665–1.1675
Trade type: Trend-continuation short
Entry Zone: 1.1640 –1.1668
Stop Loss: 1.1715 (The stop sits above the 1H 200 EMA and the 4H resistance cluster around 1.1700–1.1710. A clean move above this area would weaken the bearish thesis.)
TP1: 1.1600
TP2: 1.1555
TP3: 1.1490
Reason
This is the cleaner bearish setup because it avoids shorting directly into a short-term oversold condition. The 4H and 1H structures are bearish, price is below the key EMA clusters, MACD remains negative, and macro conditions still favour USD resilience.
Aggressive Bearish Setup: Breakdown Retest
Setup quality: Strong only if there is a clean break and retest
Trade type: Momentum continuation short
Entry: 1.1590–1.1605 (Only after price breaks below 1.1600 and retests it as resistance.)
SL: 1.1645
TP1: 1.1560
TP2: 1.1500
TP3: 1.1415
Reason
This setup has better risk-reward but lower quality than the rally short because the price is already stretched on the 4H RSI. It only becomes attractive if 1.1600 breaks with momentum and then fails on a retest. Avoid chasing the first break if the candle is already extended.
Bull Case Trade Idea: Reclaim and Mean Reversion
Setup quality: Improves materially above 1.1665–1.1710
Trade type: Counter-trend recovery / mean reversion
Entry Zone: 1.1665–1.1680
SL: 1.1615
TP1: 1.1710
TP2: 1.1765
TP2: 1.1765
Reason
The bullish case is mainly a short-covering and mean-reversion thesis, not yet a trend reversal thesis. The 4H RSI is oversold, the 15M MACD is stabilising, and the 1H RSI has started recovering from depressed levels. That creates room for a bounce. However, the bullish setup only improves if EUR/USD reclaims 1.1665 and then 1.1700–1.1710. Without that, the larger trend remains bearish.
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คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน