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#AN031: January, 5 Geopolitical Shocks

January 2026 isn't offering a single "black swan" event, but a sequence of progressively unleashed geopolitical shocks: European energy, the Middle East/Iran, Latin America, Ukraine, and renewed US-Europe/Arctic tensions, along with a parallel Asia-Pacific (Taiwan) element that rekindles risk-on/risk-off sentiment. The result, for the FX market, is a month where the risk premium constantly shifts between the dollar, safe-haven currencies, and commodity-related blocs.

1) Europe: Permanent ban on Russian gas (long timeline, immediate impact on expected prices)

On January 26, the EU gave final approval to a regulation to ban Russian gas imports by the end of 2027, including LNG by the end of 2026 and pipelines by September 30, 2027 (with technical possibilities for postponement in specific cases).

Why it matters for FX (now, not in 2027):

FX price in expectations: a trajectory of reduced energy dependence reduces structural tail risk in Europe, but in the short term it can generate a volatility premium (pricing of bottlenecks, contracts, LNG infrastructure, weather/consumption shocks).

If energy returns to being an inflation driver, the chain is: energy → CPI expectations → expected ECB rates → EUR.

Operational implications:

EUR: tends to react more to energy price surprises than to the news itself. The real issue is "how much does it cost to replace" and "with what stability."

NOK/SEK: often become regional proxies when the market recalibrates energy and European growth (focus on oil/gas and global risk).

2) Middle East/Iran: "armada," sanctions, oil, and USD volatility

In just a few days, the Iran → oil → global inflation → USD positioning channel has been rekindled: new US sanctions on entities and vessels linked to Iranian oil transport and military rhetoric/deployment pushed Brent and WTI up about 3% in one session, reactivating the energy risk premium.

Key FX Mechanism:

Oil up → (global) inflation pressure up → expected real rates up → rotation to USD or flight to safe havens (JPY/CHF) if event risk concerns rise.

In parallel, domestic Iran is showing financial stress (equity sell-off and currency under pressure), a sign that the local market is pricing in a higher risk scenario.

Those who tend to move more:

CAD (oil) often benefits if the rally is orderly and growth-friendly.

JPY/CHF (safe havens) if the market interprets escalation as a risk of a sudden shock.

EMFX: suffers if energy translates into higher import bills and tighter financial conditions.

3) Latin America: Venezuela, "hard power" and geopolitical risk on EM flows

The month brought a rare element: a qualitative leap in US posture in the region, with the arrest/capture of Nicolás Maduro and a communication framework that speaks of conflict against narco-networks and pressure on energy assets/routes. The consequences are greater than Venezuela alone: they increase the likelihood that the market will apply a wider risk premium on EM currencies sensitive to geopolitics and sanctions.

FX: What to Really Watch

It's not just "USD vs. VES" (not traditionally tradable): it's the perception of regional instability and "policy unpredictability."

Secondary effect: attention to energy channels and capital flows into USD and liquid instruments when uncertainty rises.

4) Ukraine: harsh winter, infrastructure affected, and European energy risk "returning"

Offensive attacks on infrastructure and power grids (Kharkiv and other areas) are making the Ukraine issue "macro-relevant" again, just as Europe is talking about definitively ending its energy dependence on Moscow.

For Forex:

Any increase in risk on Europe (energy/security) tends to produce:

EUR more fragile during risk aversion peaks, demand for USD/CHF and often JPY, repricing on gas/oil which falls under point (1).

5) US-Europe/Arctic: Greenland, NATO, and the Risk of Transatlantic Friction

Tensions over Greenland and transatlantic relations are becoming a new geopolitical overlay that the market cannot ignore, especially since it impacts defense, Arctic shipping, and European political cohesion.

How it transforms into FX:

The risk of policy shocks (tariffs/retaliation/tense negotiations) increases.

In times of friction, the market tends to favor the most liquid and defensive asset: often the USD, with rapid rotations between risk-on and risk-off.

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