3/11/25 - Nov Likely to Trade at Least a Little Lower

Friday’s candlestick (Oct 31) was a bear bar closing near its low.
In our previous report, we noted that the bulls wanted a strong bull bar to form a weekly candlestick with a long tail below, reducing the week’s bearishness. Conversely, the bears wanted a strong bear bar to confirm control and close the week strongly bearish.
The market traded lower, and the weekly candlestick indeed closed as a strong bear bar near its low.
The bulls hope the current move is simply a deep pullback.
They want to see a failed breakout below the September 23 low.
To show they’re regaining control, the bulls must now produce strong consecutive bull bars breaking clearly above the bear microchannel.
The bears, on the other hand, wanted follow-through selling below the September low — and they got it.
The current move has formed a 9-bar bear microchannel, signaling strong bears and persistent selling pressure.
The first pullback will likely be minor, followed by at least a small sideways-to-down leg retesting the current low (Oct 31 low).
The bears’ measured-move target, based on the height of the prior trading range, projects toward the 4000–3950 area.
Production: October output likely increased; November figures are yet to be announced.
Refineries: Buying interest remains, though slightly less enthusiastic.
Exports: October exports rose 5.19%, according to ITS.
Overall, the market is breaking out from an 11-week trading range in a persistent 9-bar bear microchannel — evidence of strong selling momentum.
The market remains Always-In-Short.
For Monday (Nov 3), traders will watch whether the bulls can produce a minor pullback and a few decent bull bars in the days ahead, or if the bears will extend their follow-through selling.
For now, odds still slightly favor the first pullback being minor, with sellers likely waiting above the bear microchannel.

Andrew

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