11/2/26 Strong Pullback Testing Prior Breakout Point

Tuesday’s candlestick (Feb. 10) was a big bear bar closing near its low, trading below the 2-day EMA.
In our last report, we stated that traders would observe whether the bears could create more follow-through selling below the 20-day EMA or if the market would stall around the 20-day EMA area, followed by a retest of the January high in the days ahead.
The market traded down to test the January 16 breakout point.
Bulls see the current pullback as a retest of the January 16 breakout point.
They see the current move as a three-legged sideways-to-down pullback and hope the market will reverse above the 20-day EMA.
Bulls need to create strong consecutive bull bars to show they are back in control.
Bears got a reversal from a double top bear flag (November 19).
They created consecutive strong bear bars below the 20-day EMA in a tight bear channel, indicating persistent selling.
If there is a pullback, bears want the 20-day EMA to act as resistance, followed by a second leg sideways to down to retest the current leg low (February 11).
Fundamentals:
• Production: Production for Feb will be down.
• Refineries: Not paying premiums vs spot futures - yet.
• Exports: ITS Feb first 5 days down 10.52
The bulls created a strong bull leg to test the September high, followed by a strong bear leg testing the top of the prior trading range.
The strong pullback indicates the bears are also active.
For Wednesday (February 11), traders will see if the bears can create more follow-through selling below the 20-day EMA.
Or will the market stall around the top of the prior trading range, followed by a retest of the 20-day EMA later this week?

Andrew

Tech_Trader88

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10/2/26 Can the 20-day EMA Act As Support?

โดย Tech_Trader88

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