Opening trend outlook, market analysis and trading suggestions
This week's weekly candlestick chart formed a large bearish engulfing pattern, a clear confirmation of a bearish trend, indicating a complete reversal to a downtrend. The moving average (MA) system is in a standard bearish alignment, with short-term and medium-term MAs diverging downwards in tandem. The KDJ indicator is deeply in oversold territory, but bearish momentum remains strong, with no bottoming signals—indicating that the medium- to long-term downtrend will continue, and there is still room for further declines.
On the daily chart: This week saw several large bearish candlesticks, completely breaking through all key MAs and support levels. Gold prices have remained below the MA system, with rebounds lacking momentum. The MACD indicator maintains a death cross, continuing to diverge downwards, with the green histogram momentum surging to recent highs, indicating that bearish momentum continues to be released without any signs of weakening. The KDJ indicator is stagnant at low levels; even in oversold territory, it failed to trigger a valid rebound, highlighting the strong momentum of the current one-sided downtrend.
On the 4-hour chart: A clear step-down pattern is emerging, with consecutive sharp declines in rebound highs and continuously refreshed lows. Each brief consolidation phase is followed by a new round of sharp declines, with strong downward momentum throughout. Trading volume exhibits a pattern of "surges during crashes and decreases during consolidation": the significant surge in volume during crashes confirms concentrated large sell orders, while the persistently low volume during consolidation reflects cautious market sentiment—a lack of substantial inflows for bottom-fishing, resulting in a lack of financial support for short-term rebounds.
1-Hour Chart: After this week's sustained sharp decline, the short-term trend is extremely bearish. The moving average system is bearish, with the 5-period and 10-period moving averages declining in tandem, indicating weak rebound momentum. The MACD histogram shows persistently high momentum, and the death cross pattern remains unchanged; the KDJ indicator is stagnant in oversold territory, making it difficult to form a valid reversal pattern. Short-term rebounds are merely weak corrections with limited upside potential, and are highly likely to face downward pressure again after the rebound.
This week's closing price has clearly confirmed that gold has entered a strong downtrend, with no signs of reversal in the short term. This week marked a crucial turning point for gold, ushering in a bear market—it experienced its largest weekly drop in six years, breaking through six major psychological levels, driven by a confluence of negative factors. Looking ahead, bears will dominate the market; short-term rebounds are purely technical corrections and cannot alter the overall downtrend.
In the short term, gold will continue to consolidate around $4,500, with key support levels to watch at $4,450-$4,500. A break below $4,450 could see further declines towards the $4,300-$4,200 range. In the medium to long term, the Fed's hawkish stance, high inflation expectations, and a strong dollar environment are unlikely to change in the short term—the downtrend for gold is clear, and there is still room for further decline. Don't be misled by the illusion that the bottom has been reached.
Short-selling strategy: Look for shorting opportunities when gold rebounds to the $4,545-$4,560 range. Once the target price is reached, take profits immediately—do not blindly hold short positions.
Long position strategy: When gold prices retest $4450, a very small long position can be established, with a stop-loss order placed below $4420 (below the key support level). Take profits immediately – do not be greedy for further gains from a rebound.
We welcome all traders to share their opinions, and let's move forward together in this market.
XAUUSD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD1!
On the daily chart: This week saw several large bearish candlesticks, completely breaking through all key MAs and support levels. Gold prices have remained below the MA system, with rebounds lacking momentum. The MACD indicator maintains a death cross, continuing to diverge downwards, with the green histogram momentum surging to recent highs, indicating that bearish momentum continues to be released without any signs of weakening. The KDJ indicator is stagnant at low levels; even in oversold territory, it failed to trigger a valid rebound, highlighting the strong momentum of the current one-sided downtrend.
On the 4-hour chart: A clear step-down pattern is emerging, with consecutive sharp declines in rebound highs and continuously refreshed lows. Each brief consolidation phase is followed by a new round of sharp declines, with strong downward momentum throughout. Trading volume exhibits a pattern of "surges during crashes and decreases during consolidation": the significant surge in volume during crashes confirms concentrated large sell orders, while the persistently low volume during consolidation reflects cautious market sentiment—a lack of substantial inflows for bottom-fishing, resulting in a lack of financial support for short-term rebounds.
1-Hour Chart: After this week's sustained sharp decline, the short-term trend is extremely bearish. The moving average system is bearish, with the 5-period and 10-period moving averages declining in tandem, indicating weak rebound momentum. The MACD histogram shows persistently high momentum, and the death cross pattern remains unchanged; the KDJ indicator is stagnant in oversold territory, making it difficult to form a valid reversal pattern. Short-term rebounds are merely weak corrections with limited upside potential, and are highly likely to face downward pressure again after the rebound.
This week's closing price has clearly confirmed that gold has entered a strong downtrend, with no signs of reversal in the short term. This week marked a crucial turning point for gold, ushering in a bear market—it experienced its largest weekly drop in six years, breaking through six major psychological levels, driven by a confluence of negative factors. Looking ahead, bears will dominate the market; short-term rebounds are purely technical corrections and cannot alter the overall downtrend.
In the short term, gold will continue to consolidate around $4,500, with key support levels to watch at $4,450-$4,500. A break below $4,450 could see further declines towards the $4,300-$4,200 range. In the medium to long term, the Fed's hawkish stance, high inflation expectations, and a strong dollar environment are unlikely to change in the short term—the downtrend for gold is clear, and there is still room for further decline. Don't be misled by the illusion that the bottom has been reached.
Short-selling strategy: Look for shorting opportunities when gold rebounds to the $4,545-$4,560 range. Once the target price is reached, take profits immediately—do not blindly hold short positions.
Long position strategy: When gold prices retest $4450, a very small long position can be established, with a stop-loss order placed below $4420 (below the key support level). Take profits immediately – do not be greedy for further gains from a rebound.
We welcome all traders to share their opinions, and let's move forward together in this market.
XAUUSD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD1! 
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ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน