🔴 MSFT Short — Breaking Below the $390 Pivot
🔴 Side: SHORT
💰 Entry: $389
🛑 Stop: $395.20
🎯 Target: $382.50
⚖️ R:R: 1.05
⭐ Confidence: 4/5
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🔍 Thesis
Microsoft is breaking below the $390 structural pivot after a sustained downtrend from $540. Every bounce since February has been shallower — sellers are in control and buyers are exhausted.
📉 Price Action
- HTF (4h): Persistent downtrend — lower highs, lower lows since Oct 2025. The Feb gap-down shifted MSFT into a weaker structure with no recovery
- LTF (1h): Stair-step selling from $413 → $405 → $399 → $395 → $389. Each bounce gets sold from a lower level. Volume expanding on red candles
- $390 was support, now resistance — polarity flip confirmed
🎯 Key Levels
- Resistance: $390 (broken pivot), $395-400 (supply zone)
- Support: $382.50 (target — late Feb swing lows), $380 (psychological)
📋 Options Flow
- 🐻 Net bearish — -$1.1M sentiment
- 📊 Bearish premium: $2.45M vs bullish $1.33M
- 🔑 Heavy put buying on $387.50P and $390P strikes
- 📉 Calls sold on bid across $390-395 = institutional distribution
💡 Trade Plan
Stock: Short at $389, stop above $395.20, target $382.50
Options: Apr 10 $390/$380 Put Spread
- Buy $390P @ $9.95, Sell $380P @ $6.28
- Max risk: ~$368 | Max gain: ~$633
- Breakeven: $386.33
⚠️ Risk
- Broad market bounce / risk-on rally could squeeze
- Invalidated above $395.20 (back inside prior range)
- MSFT is a mega-cap — moves can be slow, patience required
🔴 Side: SHORT
💰 Entry: $389
🛑 Stop: $395.20
🎯 Target: $382.50
⚖️ R:R: 1.05
⭐ Confidence: 4/5
---
🔍 Thesis
Microsoft is breaking below the $390 structural pivot after a sustained downtrend from $540. Every bounce since February has been shallower — sellers are in control and buyers are exhausted.
📉 Price Action
- HTF (4h): Persistent downtrend — lower highs, lower lows since Oct 2025. The Feb gap-down shifted MSFT into a weaker structure with no recovery
- LTF (1h): Stair-step selling from $413 → $405 → $399 → $395 → $389. Each bounce gets sold from a lower level. Volume expanding on red candles
- $390 was support, now resistance — polarity flip confirmed
🎯 Key Levels
- Resistance: $390 (broken pivot), $395-400 (supply zone)
- Support: $382.50 (target — late Feb swing lows), $380 (psychological)
📋 Options Flow
- 🐻 Net bearish — -$1.1M sentiment
- 📊 Bearish premium: $2.45M vs bullish $1.33M
- 🔑 Heavy put buying on $387.50P and $390P strikes
- 📉 Calls sold on bid across $390-395 = institutional distribution
💡 Trade Plan
Stock: Short at $389, stop above $395.20, target $382.50
Options: Apr 10 $390/$380 Put Spread
- Buy $390P @ $9.95, Sell $380P @ $6.28
- Max risk: ~$368 | Max gain: ~$633
- Breakeven: $386.33
⚠️ Risk
- Broad market bounce / risk-on rally could squeeze
- Invalidated above $395.20 (back inside prior range)
- MSFT is a mega-cap — moves can be slow, patience required
monk.trade — Trade setups and market intelligence
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monk.trade — Trade setups and market intelligence
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน