# NEM Daily | World's Largest Gold Miner Retesting Channel Support at 0.618 Fib
**WaverVanir International LLC | March 9, 2026**
---
## STRUCTURE
Newmont (NEM) has been in a parabolic uptrend since mid-2024, running from the low $30s to a high near $134.61. Price is now pulling back into confluent support.
Fibonacci retracement from the impulse leg shows:
- **0.618 retracement sits at $114.11** — price closed Friday at $116.54, testing this level
- **0.541 at $109.38** aligns with horizontal support at $109.77 — this is the secondary catch zone
- Ascending trendline from the 2024 base is providing dynamic support right at current price
If 0.618 holds, the extension targets are significant:
- **T1: $161.44** (1.5 extension)
- **T2: $167.77** (1.618 extension) — confluent with horizontal resistance at $167.35-$167.51
- **T3: $188.27** (2.0 extension)
- **Stretch: $221.44** (2.618 extension)
The setup: channel support + 0.618 fib + horizontal demand zone. A bounce here has room to run 40-90% from entry.
---
## MACRO CATALYST: GOLD AT $5,100 AND THE EVERYTHING HEDGE
Gold is trading at ~$5,095/oz as of this morning — up nearly 95% year-over-year. But here's the nuance: gold actually pulled back ~4.7% this past week despite being the ultimate safe haven during the Hormuz crisis.
Why? Oil surging above $100/bbl reignited inflation fears, which pushed rate cut expectations further out. The Fed is expected to hold at 3.50-3.75% at the March 18 meeting. Since gold doesn't pay a coupon, higher-for-longer rates create a headwind.
But the structural bull case for gold remains intact:
- **Central bank buying continues.** Gold ETFs absorbed $5.3B (+26 tonnes) in February alone, led by North American and Asian institutional flows
- **De-dollarization is accelerating.** The Hormuz crisis is forcing Asian nations to diversify away from USD-denominated energy dependence
- **Real rates are still the driver.** If inflation reaccelerates from $100+ oil, the Fed eventually has to cut to prevent recession — that's the scenario where gold goes parabolic above $6,000
- **Chinese physical demand holding firm** even as Indian demand softened on price sensitivity
The near-term tension: gold needs the oil spike to either cool (ceasefire) or persist long enough to force a Fed pivot. Both paths eventually lead higher for gold — it's a question of timing.
---
## WHY NEM SPECIFICALLY
Newmont is the world's largest gold miner. At $5,100 gold, NEM's all-in sustaining costs (~$1,400/oz) give it roughly $3,700/oz in margin — the widest in the company's history. This translates to massive free cash flow expansion that hasn't been fully priced in.
NEM offers operational leverage to gold that physical gold and GLD don't. When gold moves 10%, NEM historically moves 20-30%. The pullback from $134 to $116 while gold remains near all-time highs creates a divergence that typically resolves to the upside.
---
## THE TRADE
**Entry zone:** $114-117 (current price in the zone)
**Stop:** Below $109.77 (0.541 fib + horizontal support — a break here invalidates the channel)
**T1:** $134.61 (retest of prior high) — +15.5%
**T2:** $167 zone (1.618 fib extension + horizontal confluence) — +43%
**Risk/Reward:** ~$7 risk for $50+ reward at T2. ~7:1 R/R.
---
## RISK FACTORS
- Fed holds hawkish longer than expected if oil-driven inflation reaccelerates — this is the active headwind right now
- Gold flash crash if Hormuz reopens suddenly and safe-haven premium unwinds
- Break below $109.77 would violate the ascending channel and open a path to $97-100 (0.309 fib)
- NEM-specific: operational disruptions, cost inflation from higher energy inputs eating into margins
The counterargument to the risk: even if gold pulls back to $4,800, NEM still has $3,400/oz in margin. The floor for this stock is much higher than where it was 12 months ago. The downside scenario is a correction, not a collapse.
NEM 
GLD 
GDX 
GOLD
*Disclaimer: WaverVanir International LLC. Not financial advice. Do your own due diligence.*
**WaverVanir International LLC | March 9, 2026**
---
## STRUCTURE
Newmont (NEM) has been in a parabolic uptrend since mid-2024, running from the low $30s to a high near $134.61. Price is now pulling back into confluent support.
Fibonacci retracement from the impulse leg shows:
- **0.618 retracement sits at $114.11** — price closed Friday at $116.54, testing this level
- **0.541 at $109.38** aligns with horizontal support at $109.77 — this is the secondary catch zone
- Ascending trendline from the 2024 base is providing dynamic support right at current price
If 0.618 holds, the extension targets are significant:
- **T1: $161.44** (1.5 extension)
- **T2: $167.77** (1.618 extension) — confluent with horizontal resistance at $167.35-$167.51
- **T3: $188.27** (2.0 extension)
- **Stretch: $221.44** (2.618 extension)
The setup: channel support + 0.618 fib + horizontal demand zone. A bounce here has room to run 40-90% from entry.
---
## MACRO CATALYST: GOLD AT $5,100 AND THE EVERYTHING HEDGE
Gold is trading at ~$5,095/oz as of this morning — up nearly 95% year-over-year. But here's the nuance: gold actually pulled back ~4.7% this past week despite being the ultimate safe haven during the Hormuz crisis.
Why? Oil surging above $100/bbl reignited inflation fears, which pushed rate cut expectations further out. The Fed is expected to hold at 3.50-3.75% at the March 18 meeting. Since gold doesn't pay a coupon, higher-for-longer rates create a headwind.
But the structural bull case for gold remains intact:
- **Central bank buying continues.** Gold ETFs absorbed $5.3B (+26 tonnes) in February alone, led by North American and Asian institutional flows
- **De-dollarization is accelerating.** The Hormuz crisis is forcing Asian nations to diversify away from USD-denominated energy dependence
- **Real rates are still the driver.** If inflation reaccelerates from $100+ oil, the Fed eventually has to cut to prevent recession — that's the scenario where gold goes parabolic above $6,000
- **Chinese physical demand holding firm** even as Indian demand softened on price sensitivity
The near-term tension: gold needs the oil spike to either cool (ceasefire) or persist long enough to force a Fed pivot. Both paths eventually lead higher for gold — it's a question of timing.
---
## WHY NEM SPECIFICALLY
Newmont is the world's largest gold miner. At $5,100 gold, NEM's all-in sustaining costs (~$1,400/oz) give it roughly $3,700/oz in margin — the widest in the company's history. This translates to massive free cash flow expansion that hasn't been fully priced in.
NEM offers operational leverage to gold that physical gold and GLD don't. When gold moves 10%, NEM historically moves 20-30%. The pullback from $134 to $116 while gold remains near all-time highs creates a divergence that typically resolves to the upside.
---
## THE TRADE
**Entry zone:** $114-117 (current price in the zone)
**Stop:** Below $109.77 (0.541 fib + horizontal support — a break here invalidates the channel)
**T1:** $134.61 (retest of prior high) — +15.5%
**T2:** $167 zone (1.618 fib extension + horizontal confluence) — +43%
**Risk/Reward:** ~$7 risk for $50+ reward at T2. ~7:1 R/R.
---
## RISK FACTORS
- Fed holds hawkish longer than expected if oil-driven inflation reaccelerates — this is the active headwind right now
- Gold flash crash if Hormuz reopens suddenly and safe-haven premium unwinds
- Break below $109.77 would violate the ascending channel and open a path to $97-100 (0.309 fib)
- NEM-specific: operational disruptions, cost inflation from higher energy inputs eating into margins
The counterargument to the risk: even if gold pulls back to $4,800, NEM still has $3,400/oz in margin. The floor for this stock is much higher than where it was 12 months ago. The downside scenario is a correction, not a collapse.
NEM GLD GDX GOLD*Disclaimer: WaverVanir International LLC. Not financial advice. Do your own due diligence.*
WaverVanir ⚖ Process over prediction.
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🌐 wavervanir.com
📊 stocktwits.com/Pravo_Koirala
✈ t.me/wavervanir
💼 linkedin.com/in/prabhawa
🐙 github.com/pravo123
🎬 youtu.be/-Sedov3GUrU?si=-AYAsAGhWLbXvcK_
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WaverVanir ⚖ Process over prediction.
🌐 wavervanir.com
📊 stocktwits.com/Pravo_Koirala
✈ t.me/wavervanir
💼 linkedin.com/in/prabhawa
🐙 github.com/pravo123
🎬 youtu.be/-Sedov3GUrU?si=-AYAsAGhWLbXvcK_
🌐 wavervanir.com
📊 stocktwits.com/Pravo_Koirala
✈ t.me/wavervanir
💼 linkedin.com/in/prabhawa
🐙 github.com/pravo123
🎬 youtu.be/-Sedov3GUrU?si=-AYAsAGhWLbXvcK_
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน