1️⃣ Technical Context
NZD/USD is trading around 0.5630, within a descending channel that started in mid-July. After testing the lower boundary of the channel and the demand zone between 0.5570–0.5620, price reacted with a mild technical bounce — yet without any structural reversal confirmation.
The daily RSI shows a bullish divergence and remains above 30, signaling a possible short-term rebound toward 0.5750–0.5800 before a potential continuation lower.
Key Levels
Resistance: 0.5750 / 0.5820 (upper channel + prior supply)
Support: 0.5570 / 0.5500 (demand + channel bottom)
Technical Bias: bearish while below 0.5820, but short-term corrective potential toward the upper channel remains.
2️⃣ COT Data (latest available report)
NZD Futures (CME):
Non-commercial: Long +3,044 | Short +6,160 → rising net short exposure.
Commercial: Long +2,869 | Short -286 → commercials remain hedged, confirming structural weakness in NZD.
USD Index: Non-commercials remain net short but are reducing exposure, signaling gradual USD strength.
→ Interpretation: COT data confirms a pro-USD, bearish bias on NZD, consistent with the broader technical trend.
3️⃣ Seasonality
Historically, November is slightly positive for NZD/USD, especially in shorter time frames (5–2 years).
20 years: -0.001
10 years: -0.003
5 years: +0.004
2 years: +0.005
→ Suggesting a short-term recovery phase in early November, followed by renewed weakness later in the month.
4️⃣ Retail Sentiment
Long: 90%
Short: 10%
Average long price: 0.5766
→ The overwhelming long positioning suggests many retail traders are trying to catch a bottom, which raises the risk of further downside pressure in the short term (potential liquidity sweep below 0.56).
5️⃣ Trading Outlook
Overall Bias: bearish with a short-term corrective potential.
Main Scenario:
→ Pullback toward 0.5750–0.5800 (upper supply zone), then likely continuation lower toward 0.5550–0.5500.
Alternative Scenario:
→ A daily close above 0.5820 would invalidate the bearish setup and open room toward 0.5950.
Confluences:
✅ RSI bullish divergence
✅ Short-term positive seasonality
⚠️ Retail extremely long
⚠️ COT bearish for NZD
NZD/USD is trading around 0.5630, within a descending channel that started in mid-July. After testing the lower boundary of the channel and the demand zone between 0.5570–0.5620, price reacted with a mild technical bounce — yet without any structural reversal confirmation.
The daily RSI shows a bullish divergence and remains above 30, signaling a possible short-term rebound toward 0.5750–0.5800 before a potential continuation lower.
Key Levels
Resistance: 0.5750 / 0.5820 (upper channel + prior supply)
Support: 0.5570 / 0.5500 (demand + channel bottom)
Technical Bias: bearish while below 0.5820, but short-term corrective potential toward the upper channel remains.
2️⃣ COT Data (latest available report)
NZD Futures (CME):
Non-commercial: Long +3,044 | Short +6,160 → rising net short exposure.
Commercial: Long +2,869 | Short -286 → commercials remain hedged, confirming structural weakness in NZD.
USD Index: Non-commercials remain net short but are reducing exposure, signaling gradual USD strength.
→ Interpretation: COT data confirms a pro-USD, bearish bias on NZD, consistent with the broader technical trend.
3️⃣ Seasonality
Historically, November is slightly positive for NZD/USD, especially in shorter time frames (5–2 years).
20 years: -0.001
10 years: -0.003
5 years: +0.004
2 years: +0.005
→ Suggesting a short-term recovery phase in early November, followed by renewed weakness later in the month.
4️⃣ Retail Sentiment
Long: 90%
Short: 10%
Average long price: 0.5766
→ The overwhelming long positioning suggests many retail traders are trying to catch a bottom, which raises the risk of further downside pressure in the short term (potential liquidity sweep below 0.56).
5️⃣ Trading Outlook
Overall Bias: bearish with a short-term corrective potential.
Main Scenario:
→ Pullback toward 0.5750–0.5800 (upper supply zone), then likely continuation lower toward 0.5550–0.5500.
Alternative Scenario:
→ A daily close above 0.5820 would invalidate the bearish setup and open room toward 0.5950.
Confluences:
✅ RSI bullish divergence
✅ Short-term positive seasonality
⚠️ Retail extremely long
⚠️ COT bearish for NZD
การซื้อขายยังคงดำเนินอยู่
On NZD/USD I'm waiting the manipulation inside the weekly demand zone before to look a potential long entry
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน