Is Alt season dead? - June 2025
Let me start by saying, Youtube influencers are lying to you. The collective narrative (from those links shared with me) talk almost exclusively about the same set of narratives for triggering “alt season”:
It is the same rubbish time and time again. Rarely will one of those influencers << Look left << to tell you the News as it is written on the chart.
Let me tell you the News…
The highly anticipated "alt season," where alternative cryptocurrencies (alt coins) significantly outperform Bitcoin, faces considerable challenges to deliver the much awaited “alt season” where everything blows up. However I’ve long argued those days are behind us, we’re not going to see an “alt season” again, at least not in the sense many understand the term "alt season".
Alt season refers mainly to those tokens that reside outside the top ten crypto tokens. The total market cap of this cohort outside the top 10 is referred to as INDEX:OTHERS total, as is shown in the main chart. Now I’ve long argued corrections for Ethereum to $700 and below, Litecoin to $20 and lower, generally legacy tokens should perform the worst during this bull market, that outlook does not change.
Why so pessimistic?
Headline 1 - Support and resistance
Headline 2 - Bitcoin halving
Headline 3 - The number of circulating tokens
There are projects out there that’ll buck the trend, do you know which ones they are?
Not everything will collapse to zero.
Ww
- M2 money supply. The printer will be turned on any minute.
- The FED is going to cut rates, the market will then explode.
- Institutions are buying the dip! “Blackrock fills Ethereum long positions” etc
- A dollar collapse.
- The real season begins in 2026, stack now!
It is the same rubbish time and time again. Rarely will one of those influencers << Look left << to tell you the News as it is written on the chart.
Let me tell you the News…
The highly anticipated "alt season," where alternative cryptocurrencies (alt coins) significantly outperform Bitcoin, faces considerable challenges to deliver the much awaited “alt season” where everything blows up. However I’ve long argued those days are behind us, we’re not going to see an “alt season” again, at least not in the sense many understand the term "alt season".
Alt season refers mainly to those tokens that reside outside the top ten crypto tokens. The total market cap of this cohort outside the top 10 is referred to as INDEX:OTHERS total, as is shown in the main chart. Now I’ve long argued corrections for Ethereum to $700 and below, Litecoin to $20 and lower, generally legacy tokens should perform the worst during this bull market, that outlook does not change.
Why so pessimistic?
Headline 1 - Support and resistance
It is that simple. look left. Each alt season closed a monthly candle above the monthly 7 SMA and monthly 10 SMA (Green areas) before getting underway. Not only has this not happened during this bull market, support from the rising channel has failed and if the current monthly candle closes as it (in 7 days), then past support shall confirm as resistance. This would mean a collapse back to the 2017 market top of circa $50 billion.
Headline 2 - Bitcoin halving
The truth is “alt season” began in May 2024, that is if you’re a believer in the halving cycles. If you’re a believer then you must accept this bull market comes to an end in 90 days.
The orange vertical lines represent each Bitcoin halving, occurring in August 2016, June 2020, and lately May 2024. The so called “alt season” would follow the halving for a 518 day period. There is only 90 days left for alt tokens to do their stuff before this cycle comes to an end. However, influencers only seem to talk about how great 2026 is going to be and how now is the time to start stacking. Instead 2025 is really going to create a whole new number of bag holders of dead projects.
Headline 3 - The number of circulating tokens
In January 2017 there was 8885 tokens, the good ole days.
June 2020, still only 19,500 tokens
Fast forward to June 2025 and we have 17.45 million tokens. Utterly ridiculous.
The sheer proliferation of alt coins, now numbering in the millions, creates an overwhelming supply that far outstrips demand. This fragmentation of liquidity means that even when some tokens see brief pumps, it's often selective with only a handful of projects having strong narratives or specific utility that truly thrive.
The simple truth is the market must kill off millions of those dud projects to free liquidity to the few that matter. If you really must know where the money is going to come from that causes growth in the remaining winners, it is from the realisation that a number of those projects are dead. That includes projects such as Ethereum and Litecoin. Both those charts share an important distinction no one wants to talk or hear about.
There are projects out there that’ll buck the trend, do you know which ones they are?
Not everything will collapse to zero.
Ww
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Can you imagine a situation in 2017 or 2021 whereby Bitcoin adds $46k in price action from the recent swing low of $76k not 60 days ago (lets call it 60%) and alt tokens don't budge an inch?The main chart above is shown below but now with a key bit of information previously withheld on publication. The Bitcoin ETF introduction in January 2024.
You see, all good Ponzi Schemes need to lure in new capital to allow earlier investors to exit. In previous cycles post Halving new money that entered Bitcoin was shortly afterwards convinced, by clever marketing, of the opportunity offered by alt tokens. This led to the ICO mania, NFTs, ETFs, AI, what am I missing but you get the point. Spot holders traded away their future.
Today the new money purchasing Bitcoin is via Exchange Traded Funds (ETF), and that's where its staying. The spot Bitcoin is managed on behalf of the beneficiary. Now unless those funds start speculating with their customers money, then the majority of alt tokens are not going to go anywhere. In fact, quite the opposite, once the community realises what is happen it'll likely be too late.
It is somewhat ironic, the Bitcoin movement began with the idea of decentralised finance and the community celebrates with the introduction of a centralised exchange traded fund the killed the rest of the market.
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Still think this is a bull market?68 days to go until the market top.
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60 days remaining until the cycle top, hopefully you're all enjoying those life change gains influencers endlessly talk about.Sarcasm aside, 60 days are all the remain until the cycle top. Whatever happens in the next 60 days is not a precursor for better things to come by year end. Perhaps you've already noticed influencer talk on the amazing things to come in quarter 4 (October through December). There is no evidence in the main chart to support that outlook.
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Will activate this trade in the days ahead should the conditions on the 12 day chart below print.It will see the OTHERS market total drop from $290 billion to around $65 billion. To be clear, OTHERS is the total market capitalisation of the top-125 cryptocurrencies, excluding BTC and some other top cryptocurrencies, it is not the entire market.
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Ps the chart above is a zoomed in version (12 day) of the 1 month main chart.บันทึก
If you're still waiting for alt token season during the remaining 54 days of this Bitcoin bull market cycle, consider this:With the month of July now closed we can say the king of alt tokens (Ethereum) has experienced its worst ever bull market. That is a fact of the chart.
2017 saw 9 out of 12 green months
2021 had 8 out of 12 green months.
2025 so far has 2
There is a far far greater warning on Ethereum, however. Shall we make a Ethereum only post?
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45 days remaining of this bull market. Whatever happens between now and then, you'd be wise to exit the crypto market in full.บันทึก
2 months have past since the post was published. Is Alt season dead with 37 days to go until the market cycle top? Or is alt season alive and kicking as the influencers would have us believe?
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32 days left until this Bitcoin bull market is officially over.Influencers continue to gaslight their audiences with "Alt season is coming" stories... sigh.
Bitcoin market cycles - The end is nigh, seriously.
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The Bitcoin market cycle top is almost in. Full details in the post below.Do you really believe there is still going to be an alt token season?
Influencers across Youtube seem very certain of the fact that millions of tokens for no reasons are going to produce life changing returns.
If you want something life changing, learn to read the chart, and most importantly listen to what its telling you.
All that said, it is likely a few tokens will put out a last ditch effort for a higher high print, I've made a list. However the majority of them will roll over. The tech bubble is close to bursting, with crypto currencies taking the biggest hit.
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Just a little over 30 days until this Bitcoin bull market completes.It will be the first Bitcoin bull market without an "alt token" season. Yet influencers across social media continue gaslighting their audience.
Notice the bearish divergence growth on the 3 week chart below? While there's hope of a suckers rally, it is likely such an event will be received as a signal to start a false alt token season.
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Hopefully you're all enjoying those life changing gains influencers have been promoting.(sarcasm alert).
There is one month left (at most) for the alt token market to do something of interest. After that the cycle top is in, and the OTHERS total collapses from a $321billion market to a $60billion market cap.
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Alt token holders wipe $27billion off the OTHERS total, near 10%, in rush to exit alt token positions.It tells you something, there's not the liquidity in this area of the market many would have you believe.
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The final days of the Bitcoin bull market grow fewer as the influencer shills continue (Since June when this idea was published) to advertise the "alt-season" narrative.Are you bullish or bearish for alt season?
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The OTHERS total cannot close under $300 billon at the month end. The Bitcoin cycle top is largely in by this point.A close under $300billion confirms the main bear flag.
I wish there was something else I could tell you, something positive. The facts of the chart are very clear, there was not an "alt token season" during this Bitcoin bull market post halving. Liquidity entered the ETF and stayed there.
A melt up situation for Bitcoin still exists, how that impacts alts is unknown. Bitcoin has melted up from $15k with alts unaffected.
The majority of retail traders continue to use margin and leverage products forcing larger sell offs into alts tokens when there's never been any real liquidity entering that market. You can start to understand how the above forecast could easily play out as this process continues to unwind.
Ww
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It's been years since such a bearish divergence print on the 3 day has occurred. Years. If the rising wedges confirms, $170billion should be wiped of the OTHERS market total, that's the first 125 tokens by market capital whilst ignoring the first 10 and stable coins.Such a collapse would likely enable the collapse of Tether, they don't have the collateral to repay USDT for rear USD of this scale in a short period of time, especially as their 90 day Bond market position is crashing.
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As influencers convince their flock a full on blown alt-season is just around the corner, the market continues to print more red candles. The end of the cycle is very close, the OTHERS total continues to find rejection from past support right up until the end of the 10 month window. You only need look left to see how different this was from previous alt seasons, completely different picture.
Zooming in to the daily a large bearish divergence is seen. The bulls really must come out of hiding to prevent the top 125 tokens from collapse to oblivion.
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Hopefully you're all enjoying the alt token season promised by the Influencers as Bitcoin throws its weight around.As you look through the monthly charts you'll find no shortage of bearish signals. Solana for example, a favourite amongst many crypto bros. A text book Gravestone DOJI candle as the right shoulder print takes place.
This token alone will collapse to $50 on confirmation. Yet if you look up ideas on the platform, everyone is a bull with long ideas after a 3000% rally. There's a reason why 90% lose money in this space, greed.
The life of a contrarian, to tell others what they don't want to hear.
25 day
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OTHERS market total idea gets a lot of questions...1) The top is not in. Be patient.
2) Yes this idea is still valid, only becoming active once the Bitcoin top is in.
3) Look at the 10 day below, for whatever reason some market participants are not allowing a 10 day print below $300 billion since July. You should take comfort in that.
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Would be curious to learn who believes there's still going to be an alt token season in this Bitcoin bull market, which ends in a handful of weeks from now.Who really believes a 3-5 month alt token season is coming, as so many influencers are promising? Leave your comments below with a technical argument. Would be happy to read them.
When I read some of the comments at publication:
" MasterAnanda Jun 24
It is about to become really fun right now. Literally now and within days marketwide bullish action."
"Suhulo Jun 24
Altseason is a must, same as the BTC halving pattern repeats, this has not changed." a must ;-)
"aytekus Jun 30
The graph you draw and what you tell are very different. The graph says we will fly, you say it's over. I think you should learn to read graphs. I'm unfollowing you. It's an empty post." Oh no, have lost a follower..
I wonder how those opinions have changed if at all with 4 months already past, alt tokens have moved no where in that time as the bull market arrives at the 11th hour.
Ww
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Influencers.. "Alt season is here guys"Meanwhile...
การซื้อขายยังคงดำเนินอยู่
Officially there was never a "alt token" season in 2024-2025 Bitcoin bull market. OTHERS market cap dropped $180b in the last few hours taking this idea to -50% of the projected 77% forecast area.No doubt influencers will be telling everyone “now is the moment”, as they have been for months. Am not too sure I’d be dipping my toes into this market anytime soon.
Ww
ปิดการเทรด ด้วยตนเอง
Will close this idea now. The purchase was to highlight the absence of an alt-season. That does not mean there'll not be further opportunity as the market enters the final phase.บันทึก
A question asking if this idea is still valid. It was closed. A new idea was published in it's place:
Regardless, as alt token holders continue to soak up the green quarter 4 stories influencers sold them, you should consider the chart. Currently if this cohort is unable to move the total back above $230billion before the week is out.. then you should prepare yourself for a further 40% correction.
The correction itself would invite a test of the 2017 top at around $55 billion, which seems unbelievable until you accept there's millions of nonsense tokens in circulation.
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Price action continues its collapse to the 2017 top, completing a lost decade in the alt token space back to $60b from $460.Where did all that money go? Mostly to Binance on forced liquidations ;-)
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Someone ask me about this idea...The original chart below.
Not only was there no alt-season but we're enjoying the bear market of a post alt-season without the alt-season part ever occurring!
Not studied it a huge amount but if the flag follows through together with halving cycles then the OTHERS total should finally come to rest circa <$50 billion by late December 2026. The stock market will be at new highs by this time. Yes, crypto is deader than Julius Caesar. No one uses it, no one cares. Get over 2017 already.
Does this mean alt ideas are toast?
Throughout publications one phrase has been repeated:
"You must be selective"
They are opportunities, but as this idea alluded.. there's far too many tokens for a market wide alt-season, not to mention a complete lack of interest in the space.
What is selective mean?
Let's take a look at some 2 month charts, which would you chose? From a purely random selection / technical point of view using a 4 week chart that's about to print:
Option A - Ethereum:
Option B - HMSTR
Option C - ADA
It's not rocket science but so many retail trader will listen to Micheal Saylor before they read a chart.
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