Repsol closes the year with solid performance and sets a higher dividend for 2026
Ion Jauregui - Analyst at ActivTrades
Repsol closed 2025 with a net profit of €1.899 billion, up 8% from 2024, demonstrating resilience in a year marked by lower crude prices, elevated energy volatility and an uncertain geopolitical environment.
Adjusted net income — the company’s key metric to measure underlying business performance — reached €2.568 billion, down 15% year-on-year, mainly reflecting the impact of an average Brent price of $69.1 per barrel (-14.5%) and weaker margins in certain industrial segments.
The broader interpretation is not one of structural deterioration, but rather a normalization of the energy cycle following the extraordinary years that followed the global supply crisis.
Stable upstream, pressured downstream
The Exploration & Production division contributed €957 million in adjusted net income, with average production of 548,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, in line with company guidance. The start-up of the León Castilla field in the Gulf of Mexico and progress in assets in Bolivia and Trinidad and Tobago reinforce geographic diversification and production stability.
In contrast, the Industrial division reported €963 million (-33%), affected by raw material volatility and weaker chemical margins. However, the fourth quarter showed a significant recovery in refining, generating €423 million (+66% year-on-year), pointing to a progressive improvement in margins toward year-end.
Customer and Low-Carbon Generation: the transformation axis
The Customer division continues to consolidate its position as one of the group’s core pillars, delivering €754 million in adjusted net income (+17%) and EBITDA of €1.423 billion (+20%). The company surpassed 3 million electricity and gas customers in Spain and Portugal after adding more than 500,000 new contracts during the year, while digital customers reached 10.8 million.
This growth is strategically relevant: it progressively reduces dependence on crude price cycles and strengthens recurring cash flow generation.
In Low-Carbon Generation, adjusted net income amounted to €53 million, improving by €77 million versus 2024. During the year, 2,200 MW were brought online, raising total installed capacity to 5,900 MW. Although its contribution to consolidated earnings remains limited, the growth trajectory is clear and strategically aligned with the energy transition.
Financial discipline and a growing dividend
One of the most relevant messages from the year is shareholder remuneration. In 2025, Repsol distributed €0.975 gross per share (+8.3%) and executed share buybacks and cancellations totaling €700 million.
For 2026, the company plans to increase the dividend to €1.051 per share (+7.8%) and allocate around €1.9 billion to total shareholder remuneration, including a new buyback program of up to €350 million. Repsol is therefore reinforcing a clear shareholder-return profile.
The balance sheet remains solid, with €10.271 billion in liquidity and net debt of €4.487 billion under the new segment reporting model, adopted to enhance international comparability and better reflect the growing weight of joint ventures and minority interests.
Technical Analysis – Repsol (Ticker AT: REP)
Since late January, the stock has developed a clearly bullish structure, breaking above the key resistance level at €16.795 and extending the move to recent highs of €18.310. The technical breakout has been structurally clean, although the latest bullish session occurred on relatively lower volume, suggesting some short-term loss of buying intensity.
From an indicator perspective:
RSI (14) at 71.11%: in overbought territory, increasing the probability of a short-term pause or consolidation.
MACD: maintains a positive crossover and upward slope, confirming ongoing bullish momentum.
This setup suggests that, while the primary trend remains bullish, the stock may enter a digestion or sideways phase before attempting a further extension.
The previous range’s Point of Control (POC) is located around €15.9, a former equilibrium area that now acts as a key structural support. As long as price remains above the former breakout level (€16.795), the technical bias remains constructive.
The stock is currently in a technical “blue-sky breakout” situation, with no relevant horizontal resistance levels above. In this context, the market is likely to attempt to build a new acceptance area above the former resistance. Should buying flow weaken, the most reasonable corrective scenario would be a technical pullback toward the breakout zone to validate it as support.
Meanwhile, the ActivTrades Europe Market Pulse indicator signals a neutral risk environment in equities, albeit with a slight tilt toward an unconfirmed risk-off bias. This macro sentiment backdrop reinforces the view that any deterioration in risk appetite could accelerate profit-taking in technically overbought assets such as this one.
In conclusion, the structure remains bullish, but short-term consolidation signals are emerging before any potential continuation of the trend.
Looking ahead to 2026–2028
Production guidance for 2026 stands between 560,000 and 570,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. Even more relevant will be the strategic update scheduled for the March Capital Markets Day, where the market will seek greater visibility on the renewables business and the potential “liquidity event” in this segment.
In a more moderate energy price environment, the key question will be whether growth in the Customer and Low-Carbon Generation divisions can structurally offset industrial and upstream volatility.
Repsol enters 2026 with a dividend already above €1 per share, a solid balance sheet and a more diversified business structure. The market will now assess whether this energy transition strategy begins to translate into a structural premium versus companies more dependent on the crude cycle.
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The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
Ion Jauregui - Analyst at ActivTrades
Repsol closed 2025 with a net profit of €1.899 billion, up 8% from 2024, demonstrating resilience in a year marked by lower crude prices, elevated energy volatility and an uncertain geopolitical environment.
Adjusted net income — the company’s key metric to measure underlying business performance — reached €2.568 billion, down 15% year-on-year, mainly reflecting the impact of an average Brent price of $69.1 per barrel (-14.5%) and weaker margins in certain industrial segments.
The broader interpretation is not one of structural deterioration, but rather a normalization of the energy cycle following the extraordinary years that followed the global supply crisis.
Stable upstream, pressured downstream
The Exploration & Production division contributed €957 million in adjusted net income, with average production of 548,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, in line with company guidance. The start-up of the León Castilla field in the Gulf of Mexico and progress in assets in Bolivia and Trinidad and Tobago reinforce geographic diversification and production stability.
In contrast, the Industrial division reported €963 million (-33%), affected by raw material volatility and weaker chemical margins. However, the fourth quarter showed a significant recovery in refining, generating €423 million (+66% year-on-year), pointing to a progressive improvement in margins toward year-end.
Customer and Low-Carbon Generation: the transformation axis
The Customer division continues to consolidate its position as one of the group’s core pillars, delivering €754 million in adjusted net income (+17%) and EBITDA of €1.423 billion (+20%). The company surpassed 3 million electricity and gas customers in Spain and Portugal after adding more than 500,000 new contracts during the year, while digital customers reached 10.8 million.
This growth is strategically relevant: it progressively reduces dependence on crude price cycles and strengthens recurring cash flow generation.
In Low-Carbon Generation, adjusted net income amounted to €53 million, improving by €77 million versus 2024. During the year, 2,200 MW were brought online, raising total installed capacity to 5,900 MW. Although its contribution to consolidated earnings remains limited, the growth trajectory is clear and strategically aligned with the energy transition.
Financial discipline and a growing dividend
One of the most relevant messages from the year is shareholder remuneration. In 2025, Repsol distributed €0.975 gross per share (+8.3%) and executed share buybacks and cancellations totaling €700 million.
For 2026, the company plans to increase the dividend to €1.051 per share (+7.8%) and allocate around €1.9 billion to total shareholder remuneration, including a new buyback program of up to €350 million. Repsol is therefore reinforcing a clear shareholder-return profile.
The balance sheet remains solid, with €10.271 billion in liquidity and net debt of €4.487 billion under the new segment reporting model, adopted to enhance international comparability and better reflect the growing weight of joint ventures and minority interests.
Technical Analysis – Repsol (Ticker AT: REP)
Since late January, the stock has developed a clearly bullish structure, breaking above the key resistance level at €16.795 and extending the move to recent highs of €18.310. The technical breakout has been structurally clean, although the latest bullish session occurred on relatively lower volume, suggesting some short-term loss of buying intensity.
From an indicator perspective:
RSI (14) at 71.11%: in overbought territory, increasing the probability of a short-term pause or consolidation.
MACD: maintains a positive crossover and upward slope, confirming ongoing bullish momentum.
This setup suggests that, while the primary trend remains bullish, the stock may enter a digestion or sideways phase before attempting a further extension.
The previous range’s Point of Control (POC) is located around €15.9, a former equilibrium area that now acts as a key structural support. As long as price remains above the former breakout level (€16.795), the technical bias remains constructive.
The stock is currently in a technical “blue-sky breakout” situation, with no relevant horizontal resistance levels above. In this context, the market is likely to attempt to build a new acceptance area above the former resistance. Should buying flow weaken, the most reasonable corrective scenario would be a technical pullback toward the breakout zone to validate it as support.
Meanwhile, the ActivTrades Europe Market Pulse indicator signals a neutral risk environment in equities, albeit with a slight tilt toward an unconfirmed risk-off bias. This macro sentiment backdrop reinforces the view that any deterioration in risk appetite could accelerate profit-taking in technically overbought assets such as this one.
In conclusion, the structure remains bullish, but short-term consolidation signals are emerging before any potential continuation of the trend.
Looking ahead to 2026–2028
Production guidance for 2026 stands between 560,000 and 570,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. Even more relevant will be the strategic update scheduled for the March Capital Markets Day, where the market will seek greater visibility on the renewables business and the potential “liquidity event” in this segment.
In a more moderate energy price environment, the key question will be whether growth in the Customer and Low-Carbon Generation divisions can structurally offset industrial and upstream volatility.
Repsol enters 2026 with a dividend already above €1 per share, a solid balance sheet and a more diversified business structure. The market will now assess whether this energy transition strategy begins to translate into a structural premium versus companies more dependent on the crude cycle.
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
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คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน