Stages
the zoomed-out view
Four stages, I identify primarily by where price sits relative to the 50 SMA:
Stage 1 — Bottoming
Price is consolidating after a decline. Selling starts to slow and you begin to see the first signs of buyers stepping in.
Stage 2 — Rising
Price is in an uptrend.
Stage 3 —Topping:
Price action gets more erratic. The move starts to stall, there are levels price can no longer sustain or push above. Watch for lower highs forming.
Stage 4 — Declining:
Price breaks down. Capitulation.
Note: Stages don't always go in order. Topping doesn't always precede a decline, sometimes price resets and pushes back into Stage 2.
Price Cycle
the details within the stages
Phase 1 — Decline & Retest
Price falls below the moving averages. During the decline, there's typically some kind of retest back to the EMAs before continuing lower.
Phase 2 — Stabilization & Transition
Selling slows. Price goes sideways, more doji candles, range compresses. Key question: are we done going down?
Phase 3 — Breakout & Retest
Price breaks above the moving averages. The breakout is almost always followed by a retest, to or through the EMAs, before the next phase begins.
Phase 4 — Expansion & Pullback
Price expands, pulls back, expands, pulls back. This is where most upside trading happens. Track your pullbacks, 3 to 5 is the typical range before the move flattens or transitions.
Phase 5 — Exhaustion & Transition
Price struggles to push past its last high. Movement gets erratic. First break of the 50 SMA can be a signal. Price needs to break down and stabilize before it can attempt another leg up.
The Multi-Timeframe Layer
the zoomed-out view
Four stages, I identify primarily by where price sits relative to the 50 SMA:
Stage 1 — Bottoming
Price is consolidating after a decline. Selling starts to slow and you begin to see the first signs of buyers stepping in.
Stage 2 — Rising
Price is in an uptrend.
Stage 3 —Topping:
Price action gets more erratic. The move starts to stall, there are levels price can no longer sustain or push above. Watch for lower highs forming.
Stage 4 — Declining:
Price breaks down. Capitulation.
Note: Stages don't always go in order. Topping doesn't always precede a decline, sometimes price resets and pushes back into Stage 2.
Price Cycle
the details within the stages
Phase 1 — Decline & Retest
Price falls below the moving averages. During the decline, there's typically some kind of retest back to the EMAs before continuing lower.
Phase 2 — Stabilization & Transition
Selling slows. Price goes sideways, more doji candles, range compresses. Key question: are we done going down?
Phase 3 — Breakout & Retest
Price breaks above the moving averages. The breakout is almost always followed by a retest, to or through the EMAs, before the next phase begins.
Phase 4 — Expansion & Pullback
Price expands, pulls back, expands, pulls back. This is where most upside trading happens. Track your pullbacks, 3 to 5 is the typical range before the move flattens or transitions.
Phase 5 — Exhaustion & Transition
Price struggles to push past its last high. Movement gets erratic. First break of the 50 SMA can be a signal. Price needs to break down and stabilize before it can attempt another leg up.
The Multi-Timeframe Layer
- Every timeframe has its own stage and price cycle running simultaneously
- When the daily is range-bound or topping, you can drop to the hourly and trade shorter moves through the same 5 phases
- When the daily is in a clean Stage 2 uptrend, the hourly will be cycling through all 5 phases within that move — use it to time entries and exits
Emanuela | thetraderreset.com
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน
Emanuela | thetraderreset.com
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน