Today FED ended QN (Quantitative Normalizing NOT "T" = tightening. 1st, you normalize, then you tighten. Right??)
The Fed is continuing to let mortgage-backed securities roll off its balance sheet, while the U.S. Treasury increases T-bill issuance (cash-like instruments). That combination means more gov securities are hitting the market even as the Fed’s balance sheet stays roughly unchanged.
More Treasury supply + no Fed buying = higher yields and tighter liquidity. More MBS roll-off = higher mortgage rates and pressure on housing. Treasury bills soak up cash, while longer bonds suffer.
🔥 REALMACRO summary:
The Fed is doing this to:
This combo lets them tighten just enough to cool asset prices, without breaking the plumbing again like in 2019.
The success of this experiment will largely determine how long the Fed can avoid returning to QE. If liquidity tightens too far as the economy continues to weaken, they’ll be forced back into some form of balance sheet expansion sooner rather than later.
Lastly, let's check how right I was when I posted "MMT Everything."
As of April 2020, US debt was $ 24T. Today, it is $38T, representing a total increase of $14T in 5 years.
✅ CAGR ≈ 9.6% per year
✅ S&P 500 CAGR (Apr 2020 → Today): ~18.6% per year
Both are completely unsustainable growth rates.
I nailed that back in April 2020. Trump & MMT "print and play" will be the death of us! SIGH!
Lastly, the DOGE gimmick was a complete and total failure as expected. No reduction in deficit and no fraud found. Imagine that!
As I keep saying, "NEVER INVEST IN TOXIC PEOPLE! THEY WILL ALWAYS BURN YOU IN THE END!" It's not political it's a FACT!
THANK YOU for getting me to 5,000 followers! 🙏🔥
Let’s keep climbing.
If you enjoy the work:
👉 Drop a solid comment
Let’s push it to 6,000 and keep building a community grounded in truth, not hype.
The Fed is continuing to let mortgage-backed securities roll off its balance sheet, while the U.S. Treasury increases T-bill issuance (cash-like instruments). That combination means more gov securities are hitting the market even as the Fed’s balance sheet stays roughly unchanged.
More Treasury supply + no Fed buying = higher yields and tighter liquidity. More MBS roll-off = higher mortgage rates and pressure on housing. Treasury bills soak up cash, while longer bonds suffer.
🔥 REALMACRO summary:
The Fed is doing this to:
- Get out of the mortgage market.
- Strengthen the Treasury bill market (the foundation of dollar liquidity).
- Keep bank reserves “ample” without restarting QE.
This combo lets them tighten just enough to cool asset prices, without breaking the plumbing again like in 2019.
The success of this experiment will largely determine how long the Fed can avoid returning to QE. If liquidity tightens too far as the economy continues to weaken, they’ll be forced back into some form of balance sheet expansion sooner rather than later.
Lastly, let's check how right I was when I posted "MMT Everything."
As of April 2020, US debt was $ 24T. Today, it is $38T, representing a total increase of $14T in 5 years.
✅ CAGR ≈ 9.6% per year
✅ S&P 500 CAGR (Apr 2020 → Today): ~18.6% per year
Both are completely unsustainable growth rates.
I nailed that back in April 2020. Trump & MMT "print and play" will be the death of us! SIGH!
Lastly, the DOGE gimmick was a complete and total failure as expected. No reduction in deficit and no fraud found. Imagine that!
As I keep saying, "NEVER INVEST IN TOXIC PEOPLE! THEY WILL ALWAYS BURN YOU IN THE END!" It's not political it's a FACT!
THANK YOU for getting me to 5,000 followers! 🙏🔥
Let’s keep climbing.
If you enjoy the work:
👉 Drop a solid comment
Let’s push it to 6,000 and keep building a community grounded in truth, not hype.
การซื้อขายยังคงดำเนินอยู่
I have overlaid M2 to depict the importance of money supply and price.M2 leads. SPX follows.
M2 peaked in early 2022.
SPX topped after — exactly how liquidity cycles work.
The 2023–24 rally was not M2-driven.
Money supply was flat while equities rose on rate expectations, narratives, buybacks, and flow concentration.
That’s multiple expansion without broad money growth — fragile by definition.
From here:
M2 re-accelerates → equities can justify higher nominal prices
M2 stays flat / rolls → SPX must adjust via time, price, or leadership collapse
There is no third option.
Liquidity is the tide.
Price is the boat.
Real Macro Economic Investing
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Real Macro Economic Investing
patreon.com/Realmacro
patreon.com/Realmacro
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน