ALTSEASON: FIVE YEARS OF PAIN
NEXT CHAPTER COULD CHANGE EVERYTHING
5years. Think about that for a moment. Since the extraordinary expansion of 2021, crypto investors have endured crashes, failed recoveries, broken expectations and countless predictions that altcoins would never return. Bitcoin reached new historical highs, institutional adoption accelerated, and yet the broader crypto market never delivered the expansion everyone had been waiting for.
But I believe something important is developing beneath all this disappointment.
Look at TOTAL2, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization excluding Bitcoin. Since the 2022 bottom, the market has maintained a rising long term support structure while repeatedly challenging the same historical resistance region established in 2021. The failures of 2024 and 2025 created enormous frustration, but they also left behind a remarkable technical formation: rising lows pressing against a ceiling that has resisted every major attempt to break higher.
We witnessed a comparable process between 2018 and 2020. After the collapse of the previous cycle, the market spent years rebuilding its foundation beneath an important resistance zone. The final recovery from the 2020 lows eventually produced a decisive breakout, followed by the extraordinary expansion of 2021. The current formation is larger, more mature and has already tested investors' patience for considerably longer.
The momentum picture adds another dimension. The lower indicator has returned to its historical bottom region, near levels associated with the major exhaustion phases of 2019 and 2022. Meanwhile, its declining resistance line reflects years of weakening momentum. A sustained recovery from this floor, followed by a break in the descending momentum structure, would strengthen the case for a new expansion.
Now consider the other two charts.
TOTAL3/BTC, excluding Ethereum and stablecoins, is compressed between long term rising support and a descending resistance line originating from the 2017 altseason. This is where the battle for capital rotation becomes particularly interesting. A breakout would suggest that the broader altcoin market is finally beginning to regain strength against Bitcoin.
ETH/BTC is approaching another decisive confrontation with its nine year descending resistance and two year moving average. Ethereum has historically played an important role in transmitting capital from Bitcoin into the wider cryptocurrency market. A sustained recovery in this ratio could become one of the strongest signals that a genuine altseason is developing.
3 different charts. Three different dimensions of the market. And all three are approaching historically important technical decisions.
The psychological situation may be even more significant than the technical one.
In 2021, investors believed almost anything was possible. Today, after years of disappointment, many struggle to imagine another extraordinary expansion. Expectations have been destroyed so thoroughly that even a return to previous highs feels unrealistic.
That is precisely why I find the current environment so interesting. Historically, some of the greatest opportunities appeared when the market had exhausted investors financially, emotionally and psychologically. The price of waiting was measured in years, not weeks.
My idea remains aggressively bullish. I believe the broader crypto market is preparing for a major expansion, potentially far beyond its previous historical highs. The crucial next step for TOTAL2 is to overcome the resistance region around the 2021 peak, supported by improving momentum and stronger market participation. Until then, the rising support structure remains essential.
market has spent 5 years convincing investors that the next altseason will never come.
And I believe those five years may eventually be remembered as the foundation of something extraordinary. biggest mistake may be surviving the entire decline, only to lose conviction before the recovery.
NEXT CHAPTER COULD CHANGE EVERYTHING
5years. Think about that for a moment. Since the extraordinary expansion of 2021, crypto investors have endured crashes, failed recoveries, broken expectations and countless predictions that altcoins would never return. Bitcoin reached new historical highs, institutional adoption accelerated, and yet the broader crypto market never delivered the expansion everyone had been waiting for.
But I believe something important is developing beneath all this disappointment.
Look at TOTAL2, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization excluding Bitcoin. Since the 2022 bottom, the market has maintained a rising long term support structure while repeatedly challenging the same historical resistance region established in 2021. The failures of 2024 and 2025 created enormous frustration, but they also left behind a remarkable technical formation: rising lows pressing against a ceiling that has resisted every major attempt to break higher.
We witnessed a comparable process between 2018 and 2020. After the collapse of the previous cycle, the market spent years rebuilding its foundation beneath an important resistance zone. The final recovery from the 2020 lows eventually produced a decisive breakout, followed by the extraordinary expansion of 2021. The current formation is larger, more mature and has already tested investors' patience for considerably longer.
The momentum picture adds another dimension. The lower indicator has returned to its historical bottom region, near levels associated with the major exhaustion phases of 2019 and 2022. Meanwhile, its declining resistance line reflects years of weakening momentum. A sustained recovery from this floor, followed by a break in the descending momentum structure, would strengthen the case for a new expansion.
Now consider the other two charts.
TOTAL3/BTC, excluding Ethereum and stablecoins, is compressed between long term rising support and a descending resistance line originating from the 2017 altseason. This is where the battle for capital rotation becomes particularly interesting. A breakout would suggest that the broader altcoin market is finally beginning to regain strength against Bitcoin.
ETH/BTC is approaching another decisive confrontation with its nine year descending resistance and two year moving average. Ethereum has historically played an important role in transmitting capital from Bitcoin into the wider cryptocurrency market. A sustained recovery in this ratio could become one of the strongest signals that a genuine altseason is developing.
3 different charts. Three different dimensions of the market. And all three are approaching historically important technical decisions.
The psychological situation may be even more significant than the technical one.
In 2021, investors believed almost anything was possible. Today, after years of disappointment, many struggle to imagine another extraordinary expansion. Expectations have been destroyed so thoroughly that even a return to previous highs feels unrealistic.
That is precisely why I find the current environment so interesting. Historically, some of the greatest opportunities appeared when the market had exhausted investors financially, emotionally and psychologically. The price of waiting was measured in years, not weeks.
My idea remains aggressively bullish. I believe the broader crypto market is preparing for a major expansion, potentially far beyond its previous historical highs. The crucial next step for TOTAL2 is to overcome the resistance region around the 2021 peak, supported by improving momentum and stronger market participation. Until then, the rising support structure remains essential.
market has spent 5 years convincing investors that the next altseason will never come.
And I believe those five years may eventually be remembered as the foundation of something extraordinary. biggest mistake may be surviving the entire decline, only to lose conviction before the recovery.
Crypto Cycles | Fractals | Onchain | Macro | Market Psychology
Charts here. Daily cycle research on x.com/Cryptollica
Charts here. Daily cycle research on x.com/Cryptollica
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน
Crypto Cycles | Fractals | Onchain | Macro | Market Psychology
Charts here. Daily cycle research on x.com/Cryptollica
Charts here. Daily cycle research on x.com/Cryptollica
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน