The Macro Picture 🗺️
UNI has carved out a horizontal range between $3.00 and $4.00 over the past four months, a structural reset that followed the descent from $6.50. Two weeks ago, the read on this chart pointed toward a retest of the ceiling at $4.00–$4.10, and price delivered — pushing back to $4.00 on May 22 before being rejected hard. That second rejection has flipped the playground: the bulls failed to convert the ceiling, the bears took control, and the structure is now bleeding toward the lower boundary. Price sits at $3.05, hovering directly above the Range Floor with RSI cooled from above 75 to the low 40s. The path of least resistance has rotated downward, and the macro floor at $2.90 desperately needs to be tested.
The Setup ⚙️
The Ceiling Defense: The $4.00–$4.15 zone absorbed two sweep attempts in May — the mid-May liquidity grab above $4.10 and the May 22 retest that failed cleanly at $4.00. Bears are defending the ceiling with conviction, and every push higher has arrived on thinner volume and weaker structure.
The Rejection: The decline from $4.00 to $3.05 has been mechanical rather than panicked — a slow bleed that clears out late longs without triggering a violent capitulation. This is the kind of structural drift that typically precedes a final sweep of the macro floor, not a reversal.
The Decision Zone: Price sits inside the $3.00–$3.10 confluence pocket where every April dip found buyers. A clean break below $3.00 opens the path toward $2.90, where the February capitulation low lives. A defended hold here would invalidate the bearish lean and rotate focus back to the range mid at $3.50.
The Roadmap: Primary target sits at $2.90 — the path of least resistance points toward a structural sweep of the macro floor where over-leveraged longs from the April accumulation will be cleared. Invalidation: a sustained daily close above $3.20 would invalidate this bearish thesis and reopen the range with $3.50 as the immediate target.
UNI has carved out a horizontal range between $3.00 and $4.00 over the past four months, a structural reset that followed the descent from $6.50. Two weeks ago, the read on this chart pointed toward a retest of the ceiling at $4.00–$4.10, and price delivered — pushing back to $4.00 on May 22 before being rejected hard. That second rejection has flipped the playground: the bulls failed to convert the ceiling, the bears took control, and the structure is now bleeding toward the lower boundary. Price sits at $3.05, hovering directly above the Range Floor with RSI cooled from above 75 to the low 40s. The path of least resistance has rotated downward, and the macro floor at $2.90 desperately needs to be tested.
The Setup ⚙️
The Ceiling Defense: The $4.00–$4.15 zone absorbed two sweep attempts in May — the mid-May liquidity grab above $4.10 and the May 22 retest that failed cleanly at $4.00. Bears are defending the ceiling with conviction, and every push higher has arrived on thinner volume and weaker structure.
The Rejection: The decline from $4.00 to $3.05 has been mechanical rather than panicked — a slow bleed that clears out late longs without triggering a violent capitulation. This is the kind of structural drift that typically precedes a final sweep of the macro floor, not a reversal.
The Decision Zone: Price sits inside the $3.00–$3.10 confluence pocket where every April dip found buyers. A clean break below $3.00 opens the path toward $2.90, where the February capitulation low lives. A defended hold here would invalidate the bearish lean and rotate focus back to the range mid at $3.50.
The Roadmap: Primary target sits at $2.90 — the path of least resistance points toward a structural sweep of the macro floor where over-leveraged longs from the April accumulation will be cleared. Invalidation: a sustained daily close above $3.20 would invalidate this bearish thesis and reopen the range with $3.50 as the immediate target.
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คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน
📈 Stop guessing your settings — backtest & optimize with QuantPilot
🎁 Free to start
🎁 Free to start
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน