Thesis
UPS is breaking out from a multi-month consolidation and transitioning into an impulsive Wave 3 structure, supported by improving price action and strong income characteristics.
Context
- Weekly timeframe
- Prolonged corrective phase followed by tightening consolidation
- Price has recently reclaimed key moving averages
- Dividend yield remains elevated, supporting longer-term positioning
What I see
- Price has broken above the 50-week moving average
- Psychological resistance at the $100 level has been cleared
- The upper boundary of the descending wedge has been breached
- Structure is consistent with the early stages of a Wave 3 advance
What matters now
- Holding above the $100 breakout zone is key to maintaining bullish structure
- Follow-through should remain controlled rather than impulsive, consistent withUPS historical behavior
- Failure to hold the breakout would likely result in consolidation rather than trend failure
Buy / Accumulation zone
- Retests of the breakout area above $100 remain the primary zone of interest
- Risk is defined against the former wedge resistance
Targets
- Wave 3 reference aligns with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension near the $120 area
- Longer-term structure remains capped by the 200-week moving average overhead
Risk / Invalidation
- A sustained move back below the $100 level would weaken the breakout thesis
UPS is breaking out from a multi-month consolidation and transitioning into an impulsive Wave 3 structure, supported by improving price action and strong income characteristics.Context
- Weekly timeframe
- Prolonged corrective phase followed by tightening consolidation
- Price has recently reclaimed key moving averages
- Dividend yield remains elevated, supporting longer-term positioning
What I see
- Price has broken above the 50-week moving average
- Psychological resistance at the $100 level has been cleared
- The upper boundary of the descending wedge has been breached
- Structure is consistent with the early stages of a Wave 3 advance
What matters now
- Holding above the $100 breakout zone is key to maintaining bullish structure
- Follow-through should remain controlled rather than impulsive, consistent with
UPS historical behavior- Failure to hold the breakout would likely result in consolidation rather than trend failure
Buy / Accumulation zone
- Retests of the breakout area above $100 remain the primary zone of interest
- Risk is defined against the former wedge resistance
Targets
- Wave 3 reference aligns with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension near the $120 area
- Longer-term structure remains capped by the 200-week moving average overhead
Risk / Invalidation
- A sustained move back below the $100 level would weaken the breakout thesis
Long term investor. Open portfolio and full thesis on eToro: etoro.com/people/maratteo
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน
Long term investor. Open portfolio and full thesis on eToro: etoro.com/people/maratteo
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน