Nasdaq (NDX) broke today below its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time after 10 months (since May 09 2025). This is technically a very bearish development as when such a strong long-term Support breaks, the trend rarely stops there, in fact it accelerates more aggressively to new Lows.
During the two previous Bear Cycles of 2022 and 2018, when the index broke below its 1D MA200, the price made the first Low of a series of Lowers Lows and Lower Highs that would eventually form the Cycle's underlying pattern, a Channel Down.
In both cases the index hit at least the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level from the last Bear Cycle, in 2022 even it broke for 6 weeks below its 1W MA200 (red trend-line).
As a result, based on this 4-year Cycle pattern, we just got the confirmation for the 2026 Bear Cycle, which should target at least 20200 (Fib 0.382) and based on the trajectory of the 1W MA200 land very close to it. In fact, that would be almost a -23.40%, similar to the 2018 Bear Cycle.
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During the two previous Bear Cycles of 2022 and 2018, when the index broke below its 1D MA200, the price made the first Low of a series of Lowers Lows and Lower Highs that would eventually form the Cycle's underlying pattern, a Channel Down.
In both cases the index hit at least the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level from the last Bear Cycle, in 2022 even it broke for 6 weeks below its 1W MA200 (red trend-line).
As a result, based on this 4-year Cycle pattern, we just got the confirmation for the 2026 Bear Cycle, which should target at least 20200 (Fib 0.382) and based on the trajectory of the 1W MA200 land very close to it. In fact, that would be almost a -23.40%, similar to the 2018 Bear Cycle.
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** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
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I trade Crypto, Forex, Indices & Commodities on PrimeXBT — all from one account with TradingView charts 👉 tradingshot.short.gy/PrimeXBT
I also use TradeNation for fixed spreads & zero commission 👉 tradingshot.short.gy/Tradenation
I also use TradeNation for fixed spreads & zero commission 👉 tradingshot.short.gy/Tradenation
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน