The 
USDCAD pair has successfully completed a major Liquidity Grab (Buy-Side Liquidity sweep) at the recent highs. In Smart Money Concepts (SMC), this sweep often signals a reversal as institutional orders are filled.
The Structure (Regular Flat): Currently, we are witnessing a corrective structure—specifically an Expanded/Regular Flat. I expect this correction to push slightly higher to mitigate the unmitigated Supply Zone (the grey box) before the bearish impulse resumes.
Trade Plan:
Bias: Bearish / Short
Entry Zone: Watching for rejection inside the supply block around 1.3780 - 1.3800.
Confirmation: Waiting for the completion of the flat pattern and a LTF (Lower Timeframe) shift in structure.
Target: Once the correction is complete, I anticipate a sell-off targeting the internal range liquidity and lower FVGs below 1.3650.
Invalidation: A solid daily close above the sweep high would invalidate this bearish outlook.
Disclaimer: This is just my personal analysis combining Wave Theory and SMC. Manage your risk.
USDCAD pair has successfully completed a major Liquidity Grab (Buy-Side Liquidity sweep) at the recent highs. In Smart Money Concepts (SMC), this sweep often signals a reversal as institutional orders are filled.The Structure (Regular Flat): Currently, we are witnessing a corrective structure—specifically an Expanded/Regular Flat. I expect this correction to push slightly higher to mitigate the unmitigated Supply Zone (the grey box) before the bearish impulse resumes.
Trade Plan:
Bias: Bearish / Short
Entry Zone: Watching for rejection inside the supply block around 1.3780 - 1.3800.
Confirmation: Waiting for the completion of the flat pattern and a LTF (Lower Timeframe) shift in structure.
Target: Once the correction is complete, I anticipate a sell-off targeting the internal range liquidity and lower FVGs below 1.3650.
Invalidation: A solid daily close above the sweep high would invalidate this bearish outlook.
Disclaimer: This is just my personal analysis combining Wave Theory and SMC. Manage your risk.
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ปิดการเทรด ด้วยตนเอง
Result: Loss (Early Exit).Reason for Closure: The trade thesis was based on a rejection of the 1.3800 Psychological Resistance combined with an expected pullback in the DXY. However, price action and fundamentals shifted in the New York PM session:
Technical Invalidation: The price closed a 15-minute candle solidly above the 1.3800 - 1.3805 "Hard Deck." Once this key resistance converted to support, the probability of a squeeze to 1.3840 increased significantly. I exited early to save 1% of capital rather than hoping for a reversal that the chart was not showing.
Correlation Breakdown:
DXY (USD): Broke critical intraday resistance at 98.68, confirming a "Risk-Off" USD continuation.
Oil (WTI): Failed to rally, leaving the CAD weak.
Net Result: Strong USD + Weak CAD = High probability of Bullish Continuation.
Conclusion: Better to pay a small "insurance premium" to exit a failing setup than to hold a full risk position against momentum. We wait for the next clear structure.
SMC & Wave Analyst | Funded Trader Visit my official site: mustafijur.com
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SMC & Wave Analyst | Funded Trader Visit my official site: mustafijur.com
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน