Oil is no longer falling in panic mode, but the current decline is even more uncomfortable: weak rebounds, early rejection, and then a slow slide toward new lows.
On H4, USOIL is trading around $72.79, far below the EMA34 at $75.74 and the EMA89 at $81.49. Both EMAs are sloping downward, creating a heavy “roof” above price. With this structure, the main trend remains bearish.
My preferred scenario: USOIL may stage a technical rebound toward $74.50–75.70, retest resistance near the EMA34, and then continue lower toward $70.00.
The key point is that the $72–73 area is no longer generating strong buying reactions. Price is moving sideways near the lows, candles are small, and rebounds remain weak — often a sign that the market lacks real buyers rather than preparing for a strong reversal.
Fundamentally, the news also leans bearish. Reuters reported that oil prices continued to fall on June 24, moving close to a four-month low as markets expected oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz to normalize after signs of easing US-Iran tensions. WTI was reported around $72.85 in that update.
In addition, the API report showed US crude inventories fell by only 765,000 barrels, much less than the expected 4.5 million-barrel drawdown. Such a weak drawdown is not enough to provide strong short-term support for oil.
On H4, USOIL is trading around $72.79, far below the EMA34 at $75.74 and the EMA89 at $81.49. Both EMAs are sloping downward, creating a heavy “roof” above price. With this structure, the main trend remains bearish.
My preferred scenario: USOIL may stage a technical rebound toward $74.50–75.70, retest resistance near the EMA34, and then continue lower toward $70.00.
The key point is that the $72–73 area is no longer generating strong buying reactions. Price is moving sideways near the lows, candles are small, and rebounds remain weak — often a sign that the market lacks real buyers rather than preparing for a strong reversal.
Fundamentally, the news also leans bearish. Reuters reported that oil prices continued to fall on June 24, moving close to a four-month low as markets expected oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz to normalize after signs of easing US-Iran tensions. WTI was reported around $72.85 in that update.
In addition, the API report showed US crude inventories fell by only 765,000 barrels, much less than the expected 4.5 million-barrel drawdown. Such a weak drawdown is not enough to provide strong short-term support for oil.
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