Short

GOLD - Retest of 4400. Waiting for a false breakout

is showing local bullish momentum, but price is approaching a major resistance zone at 4382–4400. At the same time, the U.S. dollar remains weak, although its current consolidation continues to create pressure across the markets

The fundamental backdrop remains unstable. Geopolitical risks continue to support the dollar, while expectations for further Fed rate hikes have weakened. Against this mixed backdrop, gold remains within a broader bearish trend.
Gold is consolidating inside the 4300–4382 range while preparing for a potential retest of the recent high. Technically, continued dollar weakness could allow gold to rebound from 4330 toward 4400. However, profit-taking around 4380–4400, followed by a false breakout, could trigger a reversal.
Bullish drivers: Weaker-than-expected inflation data, Continued U.S. dollar weakness, Lower rate expectations
Bearish drivers: U.S. dollar strengthening, Rising oil prices and inflation expectations, Profit-taking ahead of the CPI report

Resistance levels: 4371, 4382, 4400
Support levels: 4327, 4313, 4302

A short squeeze through the resistance zone followed by a bearish reversal pattern could trigger a pullback or even reverse the current local bullish momentum.
However, an unexpected fundamental catalyst or a sustained close above 4400 could invalidate the bearish setup and open the way toward 4450–4475.

Best regards,
R. Linda

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