Hi, I’m Maicol, an Italian trader.
I study Gold since 2019.
I need your support.
Leave a like and follow me.
It’s a small thing for you, but important for my work.
Please read the description to understand the trading plan.
Don’t focus only on the chart. Thanks.
🌞 GOOD MORNING EVERYONE 🌞
🪙 Gold price action
The structural situation is delicate.
As of today:
Weekly: short
Daily: short
H4: short
Today I still want to look for another short.
I know the situation is not simple, mainly because Donald Trump keeps changing stance day by day, but I have to stick to my plan and confirmations.
For now, I’m watching the price zone around 4800. Not going beyond that.
Below is the geopolitical context and what to watch.
⭐ ⭐
Trump has extended the ceasefire again.
Talks are stalled.
The US blockade on Iranian shipments remains in place.
Additional US forces are entering the region.
Both sides accuse each other of violations.
Gold is moving on macro news.
Today the bias is slightly different compared to the beginning of the month.
The Middle East situation has shifted from optimism to a “frozen escalation,” which is more dangerous.
⚠️ Key points
Trump extended the ceasefire, but according to the Financial Times, negotiations are stalled and there are new accusations of violations
The US has enforced a blockade on Iranian ports
The Strait of Hormuz remains restricted
Brent rose above $100, then pulled back to the 98–99 area → the market is still pricing geopolitical risk
The dollar remains strong, and the market doubts the durability of the ceasefire
Austan Goolsbee said that the longer the energy shock lasts, the more rate cuts will be delayed → this is bearish for gold
⭐ Conclusion
The current situation is:
A negotiated pause under military pressure, not a resolution.
A trader would not call it peace.
A politician would call it leverage.
An economist would call it an unresolved supply shock.
And all three views are correct.
What is actually happening
Energy shock → inflation → higher rates
If oil remains high:
inflation expectations rise
central banks delay rate cuts
real yields stay elevated
👉 This is initially bearish for gold
Second effect (more important)
If the shock persists:
growth slows
financial conditions tighten
equities weaken
👉 Then:
the market starts pricing future rate cuts
real yields fall
gold performs better
Current situation
yields: still high
equities: still strong
oil: elevated
👉 This is why gold is struggling to find direction
📌 Bias: uncertain
We are in a transition phase toward potential rate cuts, but not clearly there yet.
Phase 1: inflation shock (current)
War → oil up → inflation up → yields high
It looks bullish for gold, but in reality it is bearish.
If price remains below key levels, gold stays bearish.
Stay sharp.
📬 If you have any questions, message me. I’ll reply.
In the meantime, have a good day.
-GOOD TRADING
-MANAGE RISK
-BE PATIENT
I study Gold since 2019.
I need your support.
Leave a like and follow me.
It’s a small thing for you, but important for my work.
Please read the description to understand the trading plan.
Don’t focus only on the chart. Thanks.
🌞 GOOD MORNING EVERYONE 🌞
🪙 Gold price action
The structural situation is delicate.
As of today:
Weekly: short
Daily: short
H4: short
Today I still want to look for another short.
I know the situation is not simple, mainly because Donald Trump keeps changing stance day by day, but I have to stick to my plan and confirmations.
For now, I’m watching the price zone around 4800. Not going beyond that.
Below is the geopolitical context and what to watch.
⭐ ⭐
Trump has extended the ceasefire again.
Talks are stalled.
The US blockade on Iranian shipments remains in place.
Additional US forces are entering the region.
Both sides accuse each other of violations.
Gold is moving on macro news.
Today the bias is slightly different compared to the beginning of the month.
The Middle East situation has shifted from optimism to a “frozen escalation,” which is more dangerous.
⚠️ Key points
Trump extended the ceasefire, but according to the Financial Times, negotiations are stalled and there are new accusations of violations
The US has enforced a blockade on Iranian ports
The Strait of Hormuz remains restricted
Brent rose above $100, then pulled back to the 98–99 area → the market is still pricing geopolitical risk
The dollar remains strong, and the market doubts the durability of the ceasefire
Austan Goolsbee said that the longer the energy shock lasts, the more rate cuts will be delayed → this is bearish for gold
⭐ Conclusion
The current situation is:
A negotiated pause under military pressure, not a resolution.
A trader would not call it peace.
A politician would call it leverage.
An economist would call it an unresolved supply shock.
And all three views are correct.
What is actually happening
Energy shock → inflation → higher rates
If oil remains high:
inflation expectations rise
central banks delay rate cuts
real yields stay elevated
👉 This is initially bearish for gold
Second effect (more important)
If the shock persists:
growth slows
financial conditions tighten
equities weaken
👉 Then:
the market starts pricing future rate cuts
real yields fall
gold performs better
Current situation
yields: still high
equities: still strong
oil: elevated
👉 This is why gold is struggling to find direction
📌 Bias: uncertain
We are in a transition phase toward potential rate cuts, but not clearly there yet.
Phase 1: inflation shock (current)
War → oil up → inflation up → yields high
It looks bullish for gold, but in reality it is bearish.
If price remains below key levels, gold stays bearish.
Stay sharp.
📬 If you have any questions, message me. I’ll reply.
In the meantime, have a good day.
-GOOD TRADING
-MANAGE RISK
-BE PATIENT
TELEGRAM: t.me/+L2Q2beyDgt84OWI0
TWITCH LIVE SESSION: twitch.tv/goldenboy_maicol
YOUTUBE: youtube.com/@GoldenBoySTrading
TIKTOK: tiktok.com/@maicol_goldenboys
TWITCH LIVE SESSION: twitch.tv/goldenboy_maicol
YOUTUBE: youtube.com/@GoldenBoySTrading
TIKTOK: tiktok.com/@maicol_goldenboys
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน
TELEGRAM: t.me/+L2Q2beyDgt84OWI0
TWITCH LIVE SESSION: twitch.tv/goldenboy_maicol
YOUTUBE: youtube.com/@GoldenBoySTrading
TIKTOK: tiktok.com/@maicol_goldenboys
TWITCH LIVE SESSION: twitch.tv/goldenboy_maicol
YOUTUBE: youtube.com/@GoldenBoySTrading
TIKTOK: tiktok.com/@maicol_goldenboys
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน