The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates remains high: Despite the growing influence of the hawkish voices, the CME "Fed Watch" data shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December still stands at 69.8%. Moreover, Fed officials such as Fisher have explicitly supported the rate cut, believing that the weak job market constitutes a reason for easing policies. The general trend of policy shift has not been altered by short-term differences.
Policy divergence hides potential for expectation differences: The market has overreacted to the hawkish remarks from within the Fed, but has overlooked the reality that the US real estate market has entered a recession and housing transaction volume has reached a 30-year low. If the non-farm payrolls data subsequently becomes even weaker, the probability of a rate cut is expected to rise to above 75%, becoming a catalyst for the rebound in gold prices.
The easing policy in emerging markets continues to intensify: The "hidden easing" effect of cumulative interest rate cuts by central banks in emerging markets (such as Brazil and India) by 150 basis points in the third quarter has continued to be released. These central banks have simultaneously increased their gold holdings while cutting interest rates, creating a dual benefit of "loose liquidity + asset allocation". The $4010 level has not fully priced in this benefit.
Today's gold trading strategy
buy：4000-4010
tp:4020-4030
sl:3990
Policy divergence hides potential for expectation differences: The market has overreacted to the hawkish remarks from within the Fed, but has overlooked the reality that the US real estate market has entered a recession and housing transaction volume has reached a 30-year low. If the non-farm payrolls data subsequently becomes even weaker, the probability of a rate cut is expected to rise to above 75%, becoming a catalyst for the rebound in gold prices.
The easing policy in emerging markets continues to intensify: The "hidden easing" effect of cumulative interest rate cuts by central banks in emerging markets (such as Brazil and India) by 150 basis points in the third quarter has continued to be released. These central banks have simultaneously increased their gold holdings while cutting interest rates, creating a dual benefit of "loose liquidity + asset allocation". The $4010 level has not fully priced in this benefit.
Today's gold trading strategy
buy：4000-4010
tp:4020-4030
sl:3990
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คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน