The US dollar is firmer, front-end Treasury yields are higher and Fed funds futures are pricing close to two full rate hikes over the next year. Yet gold is managing to catch a bid. One day doesn't make a trend, but it's a notable departure from the price action that's dominated in recent weeks.
Perhaps the reversal lower in crude prices following the positive news flow out of Switzerland has something to do with it. It’s impossible to know, but it's one potential explanation for why gold is proving more resilient than the usual macro relationships would suggest.
While the longer-term view still favours selling into strength, in the near term we've seen a higher low print and the oscillators are starting to turn higher. It’s not yet a bullish signal, but it suggests some of the downside momentum evident earlier this month is beginning to fade.
Of course, traders should question the price action seen late last week given the Juneteenth public holiday in the United States. Volumes were weak, immediately raising question marks over the validity of the bounce. However, we've seen an extension of the move during Asia today, giving it a little more credibility.
Looking at the four-hour chart, $4,220 is the immediate focus overhead. The price kissed it earlier in the session before retreating, indicating bears have not packed up and left just yet.
Should that change, a break above $4,220 would bring $4,320 and $4,367 into play, both having acted as support and resistance earlier this month. Beyond that, the downtrend from the March high kicks in around $4,400 per ounce.
On the downside, $4,122 remains the focal point, marking the low struck late last week. A break would put the June 11 swing low at $4,025 into focus, followed by the psychologically important $4,000 per ounce level.
Rather than maintain a strong directional bias, I'd be inclined to take my cues from the price action around these levels. Whether gold remains trapped within its current range or breaks in either direction may provide a clearer steer on where the next meaningful move may lie.
Good luck!
DS
Perhaps the reversal lower in crude prices following the positive news flow out of Switzerland has something to do with it. It’s impossible to know, but it's one potential explanation for why gold is proving more resilient than the usual macro relationships would suggest.
While the longer-term view still favours selling into strength, in the near term we've seen a higher low print and the oscillators are starting to turn higher. It’s not yet a bullish signal, but it suggests some of the downside momentum evident earlier this month is beginning to fade.
Of course, traders should question the price action seen late last week given the Juneteenth public holiday in the United States. Volumes were weak, immediately raising question marks over the validity of the bounce. However, we've seen an extension of the move during Asia today, giving it a little more credibility.
Looking at the four-hour chart, $4,220 is the immediate focus overhead. The price kissed it earlier in the session before retreating, indicating bears have not packed up and left just yet.
Should that change, a break above $4,220 would bring $4,320 and $4,367 into play, both having acted as support and resistance earlier this month. Beyond that, the downtrend from the March high kicks in around $4,400 per ounce.
On the downside, $4,122 remains the focal point, marking the low struck late last week. A break would put the June 11 swing low at $4,025 into focus, followed by the psychologically important $4,000 per ounce level.
Rather than maintain a strong directional bias, I'd be inclined to take my cues from the price action around these levels. Whether gold remains trapped within its current range or breaks in either direction may provide a clearer steer on where the next meaningful move may lie.
Good luck!
DS
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คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน