Following softer-than-expected CPI and PPI data, Gold managed to stabilize but failed to generate the momentum needed for a meaningful breakout. The market's reaction suggests that investors are looking beyond short-term inflation data and remain focused on the broader Federal Reserve narrative. Fed officials continue to emphasize that inflation risks have not been fully eliminated, supporting expectations that policy will remain restrictive for longer. With this week's major inflation releases now behind us, the market is temporarily losing macro catalysts, leaving Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar, and Fed rhetoric as the dominant drivers.
At the same time, geopolitical tensions remain elevated as friction surrounding the U.S. and Iran continues. While this normally provides some safe-haven support for Gold, recent price action indicates that geopolitical demand has been insufficient to overcome persistent institutional selling. The inability of Gold to capitalize on both weaker inflation data and geopolitical uncertainty suggests that bullish momentum remains fragile.
Technically, Gold continues to trade below the descending trendline on the H2 timeframe, preserving the broader bearish market structure. Recent rebounds have repeatedly stalled beneath the Demand + Trendline resistance around the 0.50–0.618 Fibonacci retracement, where sellers continue to defend premium pricing. Until buyers can reclaim this confluence and confirm a Break of Structure (BOS), the current recovery appears to be corrective rather than the beginning of a sustainable uptrend.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
Gold could continue consolidating below the descending trendline before another attempt lower. As long as the Demand + Trendline + Fibonacci resistance remains intact, the broader bearish structure favors a move back toward the 4,020 support, followed by the major liquidity zone around 3,980.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
A confirmed H2 close above the descending trendline and the 0.618 Fibonacci resistance would weaken the current bearish structure and suggest that buyers are regaining control. Until such confirmation appears, rallies are likely to remain corrective.
MARKET VIEW
Current Bias: Bearish
Preferred Strategy: Sell the Rally – Wait Confirmation
At the same time, geopolitical tensions remain elevated as friction surrounding the U.S. and Iran continues. While this normally provides some safe-haven support for Gold, recent price action indicates that geopolitical demand has been insufficient to overcome persistent institutional selling. The inability of Gold to capitalize on both weaker inflation data and geopolitical uncertainty suggests that bullish momentum remains fragile.
Technically, Gold continues to trade below the descending trendline on the H2 timeframe, preserving the broader bearish market structure. Recent rebounds have repeatedly stalled beneath the Demand + Trendline resistance around the 0.50–0.618 Fibonacci retracement, where sellers continue to defend premium pricing. Until buyers can reclaim this confluence and confirm a Break of Structure (BOS), the current recovery appears to be corrective rather than the beginning of a sustainable uptrend.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
Gold could continue consolidating below the descending trendline before another attempt lower. As long as the Demand + Trendline + Fibonacci resistance remains intact, the broader bearish structure favors a move back toward the 4,020 support, followed by the major liquidity zone around 3,980.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
A confirmed H2 close above the descending trendline and the 0.618 Fibonacci resistance would weaken the current bearish structure and suggest that buyers are regaining control. Until such confirmation appears, rallies are likely to remain corrective.
MARKET VIEW
Current Bias: Bearish
Preferred Strategy: Sell the Rally – Wait Confirmation
Daily trend & Supply/Demand insights 📊
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High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
👉 t.me/+cZC_DmEr3OwzOTA1
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
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Daily trend & Supply/Demand insights 📊
👉 t.me/+cZC_DmEr3OwzOTA1
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
👉 t.me/+cZC_DmEr3OwzOTA1
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน