Hi, I'm Maicol, an Italian trader.
I've been studying Gold since 2019.
My trading approach focuses on swing trading and intraday setups.
I need your support.
Please leave a like and follow my profile.
It may seem like a small gesture, but it makes a big difference to my work.
Make sure to read the full description to understand today's trading plan.
Don't focus only on the chart. Thank you.
🌞 GOOD MORNING EVERYONE 🌞
🔍 Gold Price Action 🔍
We are currently trading at a major historical weekly rotation zone, with weekly highs and an imbalance area around **360–380**.
For now, we remain patient. Since today is Monday, the focus is on observing price action and evaluating opportunities as the week develops.
## Key Factors to Watch: US–Iran Agreement and FOMC
US–Iran Peace Agreement
If the agreement between the United States and Iran is officially signed:
* Geopolitical risk would decrease.
* The Strait of Hormuz would reopen.
* Oil supply could normalize.
* Oil prices could move lower.
* US Treasury yields could continue to decline.
A peace agreement could be supportive for Gold in the short term, but later on, a risk-on environment may shift capital toward higher-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies and equity indices.
1️⃣ Initial Phase
When a major geopolitical agreement is announced:
* Volatility increases.
* Investors often buy Gold as a hedge.
* Gold can move higher.
2️⃣ Second Phase
If markets gain confidence that the agreement is sustainable:
* Fear declines.
* Investors reduce exposure to defensive assets.
* Capital rotates into equities, indices, and cryptocurrencies.
Therefore:
Short-term → Bullish for Gold 🟢
Medium-term → Bearish for Gold 🔴
---
⚠️ FOMC Meeting on Wednesday ⚠️
What Matters Most?
The Federal Reserve's economic projections:
* GDP growth
* Inflation
* Unemployment
- Dot Plot
Markets will focus on:
How many rate cuts policymakers expect.
When they expect to deliver those cuts.
This is one of the most important events of the year for financial markets.
---
⭐ Inflation Outlook
Will the Fed signal higher inflation expectations?
If yes:
➡️ Fewer rate cuts expected
➡️ Stronger US Dollar
➡️ Higher Treasury yields
➡️ Downward pressure on Gold
---
⭐ Economic Growth
Does the Fed still see the economy as resilient?
If yes:
➡️ Less urgency to cut rates
➡️ Higher yields
---
⭐ Rate Cuts in 2026 and 2027
Markets want clarity on the future path of monetary policy:
* 1 cut?
* 2 cuts?
* 3 cuts?
More expected cuts:
➡️ Bullish for Gold
➡️ Bearish for USD
Fewer expected cuts:
➡️ Bearish for Gold
➡️ Bullish for USD
---
⭐ Higher for Longer
The market will closely watch whether the Fed maintains its:
Higher for Longer stance.
If the Fed reinforces this message:
➡️ USD strengthens
➡️ Treasury yields rise
➡️ Gold weakens
➡️ Nasdaq and S&P 500 could come under pressure
---
Attention to Wednesday's Press Conference
The market will focus on:
The tone of the statement and press conference.
The Fed's level of concern regarding inflation.
Any hints about future rate cuts.
---
⭐ US–Iran Update ⭐
Trump stated that:
* The US–Iran agreement is essentially finalized.
* The Strait of Hormuz will reopen.
* Naval mines will be removed.
* Oil transportation will return to normal.
Iran's Supreme National Security Council has also reportedly stated that the agreement text has been finalized.
The official signing is expected to take place in Switzerland.
---
What Could This Mean for Gold?
Scenario 1️⃣: Agreement Confirmed
* Oil prices decline.
* Treasury yields decline.
* US Dollar weakens.
* Geopolitical fear declines.
Initially, Gold could benefit from the increased volatility surrounding the announcement.
However, as confidence grows and risk appetite returns:
➡️ S&P 500 higher
➡️ Nasdaq higher
➡️ Cryptocurrencies higher
➡️ Gold lower
---
Scenario 2️⃣: Agreement Collapses
* Oil prices surge.
* Geopolitical tensions increase.
* Market volatility rises.
In this scenario, Gold would likely resume its bullish trend and move higher.
🔔 Turn on notifications so you don't miss any updates!
📬 If you have any questions, feel free to message me. I'll be happy to help.
🔍 Reminder 🔍
I avoid trading during the Asian and London sessions.
My main focus is on the high-impact news releases at 8:30 AM ET and the New York session open at 9:30 AM ET.
In the meantime, I wish everyone a great day.
* HAPPY TRADING
* MANAGE YOUR RISK
* BE PATIENT
I've been studying Gold since 2019.
My trading approach focuses on swing trading and intraday setups.
I need your support.
Please leave a like and follow my profile.
It may seem like a small gesture, but it makes a big difference to my work.
Make sure to read the full description to understand today's trading plan.
Don't focus only on the chart. Thank you.
🌞 GOOD MORNING EVERYONE 🌞
🔍 Gold Price Action 🔍
We are currently trading at a major historical weekly rotation zone, with weekly highs and an imbalance area around **360–380**.
For now, we remain patient. Since today is Monday, the focus is on observing price action and evaluating opportunities as the week develops.
## Key Factors to Watch: US–Iran Agreement and FOMC
US–Iran Peace Agreement
If the agreement between the United States and Iran is officially signed:
* Geopolitical risk would decrease.
* The Strait of Hormuz would reopen.
* Oil supply could normalize.
* Oil prices could move lower.
* US Treasury yields could continue to decline.
A peace agreement could be supportive for Gold in the short term, but later on, a risk-on environment may shift capital toward higher-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies and equity indices.
1️⃣ Initial Phase
When a major geopolitical agreement is announced:
* Volatility increases.
* Investors often buy Gold as a hedge.
* Gold can move higher.
2️⃣ Second Phase
If markets gain confidence that the agreement is sustainable:
* Fear declines.
* Investors reduce exposure to defensive assets.
* Capital rotates into equities, indices, and cryptocurrencies.
Therefore:
Short-term → Bullish for Gold 🟢
Medium-term → Bearish for Gold 🔴
---
⚠️ FOMC Meeting on Wednesday ⚠️
What Matters Most?
The Federal Reserve's economic projections:
* GDP growth
* Inflation
* Unemployment
- Dot Plot
Markets will focus on:
How many rate cuts policymakers expect.
When they expect to deliver those cuts.
This is one of the most important events of the year for financial markets.
---
⭐ Inflation Outlook
Will the Fed signal higher inflation expectations?
If yes:
➡️ Fewer rate cuts expected
➡️ Stronger US Dollar
➡️ Higher Treasury yields
➡️ Downward pressure on Gold
---
⭐ Economic Growth
Does the Fed still see the economy as resilient?
If yes:
➡️ Less urgency to cut rates
➡️ Higher yields
---
⭐ Rate Cuts in 2026 and 2027
Markets want clarity on the future path of monetary policy:
* 1 cut?
* 2 cuts?
* 3 cuts?
More expected cuts:
➡️ Bullish for Gold
➡️ Bearish for USD
Fewer expected cuts:
➡️ Bearish for Gold
➡️ Bullish for USD
---
⭐ Higher for Longer
The market will closely watch whether the Fed maintains its:
Higher for Longer stance.
If the Fed reinforces this message:
➡️ USD strengthens
➡️ Treasury yields rise
➡️ Gold weakens
➡️ Nasdaq and S&P 500 could come under pressure
---
Attention to Wednesday's Press Conference
The market will focus on:
The tone of the statement and press conference.
The Fed's level of concern regarding inflation.
Any hints about future rate cuts.
---
⭐ US–Iran Update ⭐
Trump stated that:
* The US–Iran agreement is essentially finalized.
* The Strait of Hormuz will reopen.
* Naval mines will be removed.
* Oil transportation will return to normal.
Iran's Supreme National Security Council has also reportedly stated that the agreement text has been finalized.
The official signing is expected to take place in Switzerland.
---
What Could This Mean for Gold?
Scenario 1️⃣: Agreement Confirmed
* Oil prices decline.
* Treasury yields decline.
* US Dollar weakens.
* Geopolitical fear declines.
Initially, Gold could benefit from the increased volatility surrounding the announcement.
However, as confidence grows and risk appetite returns:
➡️ S&P 500 higher
➡️ Nasdaq higher
➡️ Cryptocurrencies higher
➡️ Gold lower
---
Scenario 2️⃣: Agreement Collapses
* Oil prices surge.
* Geopolitical tensions increase.
* Market volatility rises.
In this scenario, Gold would likely resume its bullish trend and move higher.
🔔 Turn on notifications so you don't miss any updates!
📬 If you have any questions, feel free to message me. I'll be happy to help.
🔍 Reminder 🔍
I avoid trading during the Asian and London sessions.
My main focus is on the high-impact news releases at 8:30 AM ET and the New York session open at 9:30 AM ET.
In the meantime, I wish everyone a great day.
* HAPPY TRADING
* MANAGE YOUR RISK
* BE PATIENT
TELEGRAM: t.me/+L2Q2beyDgt84OWI0
TWITCH LIVE SESSION: twitch.tv/goldenboy_maicol
YOUTUBE: youtube.com/@GoldenBoySTrading
TIKTOK: tiktok.com/@maicol_goldenboys
TWITCH LIVE SESSION: twitch.tv/goldenboy_maicol
YOUTUBE: youtube.com/@GoldenBoySTrading
TIKTOK: tiktok.com/@maicol_goldenboys
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน
TELEGRAM: t.me/+L2Q2beyDgt84OWI0
TWITCH LIVE SESSION: twitch.tv/goldenboy_maicol
YOUTUBE: youtube.com/@GoldenBoySTrading
TIKTOK: tiktok.com/@maicol_goldenboys
TWITCH LIVE SESSION: twitch.tv/goldenboy_maicol
YOUTUBE: youtube.com/@GoldenBoySTrading
TIKTOK: tiktok.com/@maicol_goldenboys
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน