Gold has been trickling away under cover for some time, but today, something different happened. Price has dipped below the 200 EMA, the only level that had been building steadily underneath this market during the entirety of the bull run without ever having to prove its worth by coming under pressure.
It is the whole new ball game from here.
Support becomes resistance, and price is now trading underneath a $4,197 trendline that will only serve as resistance going forward. Bounces should be seen as buying opportunities, as the discussion is now not about a correction in gold, but about the depth of the move.
There is nothing left for price to rely on beneath the current level aside from another round number level $4,000. This is a very psychological level which markets are known for testing.
Not even the fundamentals can come to the rescue today as gold has seen dollar strength, lower rate-cut probabilities, and easing geopolitical risk premiums take their toll.
Trade recommendation
Direction: Short
Entry horizon: $4,197–$4,283 (former support, now resistance)
Primary target: $4,000
Stop loss: Daily close back above $4,283
Technical scenarios
Bearish: Price stays below $4,197 and bounces fade before reclaiming it. Sellers remain in control and the path toward $4,000 opens up. This is the path of least resistance given yesterdays close.
Bullish: A strong daily close back above $4,283 with real volume would suggest the breakdown was a false move, a liquidity sweep below a major level before a recovery. Only then does the short thesis need to be reconsidered.
The 200 EMA held this market up for the entire bull run. Now it is overhead. That is the story.
It is the whole new ball game from here.
Support becomes resistance, and price is now trading underneath a $4,197 trendline that will only serve as resistance going forward. Bounces should be seen as buying opportunities, as the discussion is now not about a correction in gold, but about the depth of the move.
There is nothing left for price to rely on beneath the current level aside from another round number level $4,000. This is a very psychological level which markets are known for testing.
Not even the fundamentals can come to the rescue today as gold has seen dollar strength, lower rate-cut probabilities, and easing geopolitical risk premiums take their toll.
Trade recommendation
Direction: Short
Entry horizon: $4,197–$4,283 (former support, now resistance)
Primary target: $4,000
Stop loss: Daily close back above $4,283
Technical scenarios
Bearish: Price stays below $4,197 and bounces fade before reclaiming it. Sellers remain in control and the path toward $4,000 opens up. This is the path of least resistance given yesterdays close.
Bullish: A strong daily close back above $4,283 with real volume would suggest the breakdown was a false move, a liquidity sweep below a major level before a recovery. Only then does the short thesis need to be reconsidered.
The 200 EMA held this market up for the entire bull run. Now it is overhead. That is the story.
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Join PrimeXBT via the link below: go.appxbt.link/my6s/vf8j1cp5
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน