Gold Analysis & Trading Strategy

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U.S. June CPI data fell short of market expectations. Cooling inflation directly weighed on the U.S. Dollar and U.S. Treasury yields. Combined with sustained long-term gold purchases by central banks worldwide that created bottom-buying support, gold prices staged a sharp rebound after a steep decline. Nevertheless, the overall macro backdrop has not turned fully bullish, and Federal Reserve officials have kept the possibility of interest rate hikes on the table for this year.

Gold remains in a corrective phase following its prior slump, which does not constitute a full trend reversal. Medium-to-long-term moving averages keep pressing prices lower with substantial overhead resistance. While short-term corrective rebound momentum exists, bullish momentum lacks strength.
The key near-term resistance level sits at 4100, acting as the short-term dividing line between bulls and bears. Further up, the 4135–4140 range forms strong resistance, where heavy historical position holdings are concentrated. The 4200 level marks major band resistance; the downtrend will only see a phased reversal if daily candles firmly close above this mark.

Downside support lies at 4040–4050, the primary zone for intraday dip buying. The 4000 psychological threshold holds significant importance, with robust demand from physical gold buyers and central banks. Holding this level intact preserves a sound medium-term bottom structure.

Trading Gameplan
Long entry: 4020–4030
Take-profit targets: 4070–4100
Short entry upon stable rejection at the 4090–4100 rebound zone

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