XAUUSD – Weekly Outlook: Gold Is Testing A Medium-Term Decision Zone
Gold is entering next week at a very important technical area.
On the H4 chart, price is still moving inside a broad descending channel that has controlled the market since the previous major high. The recent recovery from the lower zone is noticeable, but gold has not fully broken the medium-term bearish structure yet.
Current price is around 4,175, right below the trendline resistance and the sell reaction area. This makes next week very interesting: gold can either break the channel and continue higher, or reject again and return to the lower buy zone.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Gold remains sensitive to the U.S. dollar, Treasury yields, inflation expectations, and upcoming U.S. economic data.
For next week, the market may continue to react strongly to any change in rate expectations. If the U.S. dollar weakens, gold may have room to extend its recovery. But if yields remain firm, sellers may continue to defend higher resistance zones.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – SMC + FIBONACCI
From an SMC perspective, gold has recovered from the lower part of the descending channel, but the recovery is now approaching a major decision area.
The current resistance zone around 4,200 – 4,213 is important because it aligns with the descending trendline and the previous sell reaction structure. If price rejects from this area, sellers may regain control and push gold back toward 4,090.
The 4,090 zone is the medium-term buy order area on the chart. This is a key support zone where buyers may look for another reaction if price pulls back.
Above the current price, the Fibonacci psychological resistance around 4,305 is the next important target. If gold breaks and holds above the trendline, price may continue toward 4,305. Higher than that, the swing sell order zone around 4,411 becomes the major upside liquidity target.
The structure is simple: 4,200 – 4,213 decides the first move, while 4,090 decides whether buyers can keep the recovery alive.
KEY PRICE ZONES TO WATCH
Current price: 4,175
Trendline resistance: 4,200 – 4,213
Sell resistance zone: Around 4,213
Medium-term buy order zone: Around 4,090
Fibonacci psychological resistance: 4,305
Swing sell order zone: 4,411
Main support for recovery: 4,090
Bullish continuation target: 4,305
Major upside liquidity: 4,411
Invalidation for bullish recovery: Below 4,090
TRADING SCENARIOS
Buy Scenario – Medium-Term Recovery View
If gold holds above 4,090 and shows bullish confirmation, I will watch for a medium-term recovery continuation.
Buy Zone: Around 4,090
Entry: Bullish rejection, liquidity sweep, lower-timeframe bullish CHoCH, or strong bullish displacement from the buy zone
SL: Below 4,090 or below the nearest swing low
TP1: 4,213
TP2: 4,305
TP3: 4,411
Breakout Buy Scenario
If gold breaks above 4,213 and holds above the trendline, buyers may continue pushing price toward the next Fibonacci resistance.
Buy Condition: Clean breakout above 4,213, followed by retest and bullish confirmation
Target: 4,305 – 4,411
Sell Scenario – Reaction From Resistance
If gold reaches 4,200 – 4,213 and shows rejection, I will watch for a bearish reaction from the trendline area.
Sell Zone: 4,200 – 4,213
Entry: Bearish rejection, failed breakout, lower-timeframe bearish CHoCH, or strong bearish displacement
SL: Above 4,213 or above the nearest swing high
TP1: 4,090
TP2: 4,000
TP3: Lower channel area if selling pressure expands
Alternative Sell Scenario
If gold breaks below 4,090 with strong momentum, the recovery structure becomes weaker.
Sell Condition: Clean break below 4,090, followed by retest and bearish confirmation
Target: 4,000 and lower channel support
MY VIEW ON GOLD
My medium-term view for gold next week is cautiously bullish only if price can hold above 4,090.
Gold is recovering from the lower part of the channel, but the bigger downtrend has not been fully broken yet. The most important area to watch first is 4,200 – 4,213. If buyers break this zone clearly, the path toward 4,305 becomes much cleaner.
However, if price rejects from the trendline again, I will not force the bullish view. In that case, gold may pull back toward the 4,090 buy order zone before choosing the next direction.
For next week, gold is standing between recovery and rejection.
Do you think gold will break above 4,213 and continue toward 4,305, or will sellers defend the trendline again?
Gold is entering next week at a very important technical area.
On the H4 chart, price is still moving inside a broad descending channel that has controlled the market since the previous major high. The recent recovery from the lower zone is noticeable, but gold has not fully broken the medium-term bearish structure yet.
Current price is around 4,175, right below the trendline resistance and the sell reaction area. This makes next week very interesting: gold can either break the channel and continue higher, or reject again and return to the lower buy zone.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Gold remains sensitive to the U.S. dollar, Treasury yields, inflation expectations, and upcoming U.S. economic data.
For next week, the market may continue to react strongly to any change in rate expectations. If the U.S. dollar weakens, gold may have room to extend its recovery. But if yields remain firm, sellers may continue to defend higher resistance zones.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – SMC + FIBONACCI
From an SMC perspective, gold has recovered from the lower part of the descending channel, but the recovery is now approaching a major decision area.
The current resistance zone around 4,200 – 4,213 is important because it aligns with the descending trendline and the previous sell reaction structure. If price rejects from this area, sellers may regain control and push gold back toward 4,090.
The 4,090 zone is the medium-term buy order area on the chart. This is a key support zone where buyers may look for another reaction if price pulls back.
Above the current price, the Fibonacci psychological resistance around 4,305 is the next important target. If gold breaks and holds above the trendline, price may continue toward 4,305. Higher than that, the swing sell order zone around 4,411 becomes the major upside liquidity target.
The structure is simple: 4,200 – 4,213 decides the first move, while 4,090 decides whether buyers can keep the recovery alive.
KEY PRICE ZONES TO WATCH
Current price: 4,175
Trendline resistance: 4,200 – 4,213
Sell resistance zone: Around 4,213
Medium-term buy order zone: Around 4,090
Fibonacci psychological resistance: 4,305
Swing sell order zone: 4,411
Main support for recovery: 4,090
Bullish continuation target: 4,305
Major upside liquidity: 4,411
Invalidation for bullish recovery: Below 4,090
TRADING SCENARIOS
Buy Scenario – Medium-Term Recovery View
If gold holds above 4,090 and shows bullish confirmation, I will watch for a medium-term recovery continuation.
Buy Zone: Around 4,090
Entry: Bullish rejection, liquidity sweep, lower-timeframe bullish CHoCH, or strong bullish displacement from the buy zone
SL: Below 4,090 or below the nearest swing low
TP1: 4,213
TP2: 4,305
TP3: 4,411
Breakout Buy Scenario
If gold breaks above 4,213 and holds above the trendline, buyers may continue pushing price toward the next Fibonacci resistance.
Buy Condition: Clean breakout above 4,213, followed by retest and bullish confirmation
Target: 4,305 – 4,411
Sell Scenario – Reaction From Resistance
If gold reaches 4,200 – 4,213 and shows rejection, I will watch for a bearish reaction from the trendline area.
Sell Zone: 4,200 – 4,213
Entry: Bearish rejection, failed breakout, lower-timeframe bearish CHoCH, or strong bearish displacement
SL: Above 4,213 or above the nearest swing high
TP1: 4,090
TP2: 4,000
TP3: Lower channel area if selling pressure expands
Alternative Sell Scenario
If gold breaks below 4,090 with strong momentum, the recovery structure becomes weaker.
Sell Condition: Clean break below 4,090, followed by retest and bearish confirmation
Target: 4,000 and lower channel support
MY VIEW ON GOLD
My medium-term view for gold next week is cautiously bullish only if price can hold above 4,090.
Gold is recovering from the lower part of the channel, but the bigger downtrend has not been fully broken yet. The most important area to watch first is 4,200 – 4,213. If buyers break this zone clearly, the path toward 4,305 becomes much cleaner.
However, if price rejects from the trendline again, I will not force the bullish view. In that case, gold may pull back toward the 4,090 buy order zone before choosing the next direction.
For next week, gold is standing between recovery and rejection.
Do you think gold will break above 4,213 and continue toward 4,305, or will sellers defend the trendline again?
Trading is a journey. The destination is mastering yourself
t.me/+qqEvv7Li9Tg2NTE1
t.me/+qqEvv7Li9Tg2NTE1
การนำเสนอที่เกี่ยวข้อง
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน
Trading is a journey. The destination is mastering yourself
t.me/+qqEvv7Li9Tg2NTE1
t.me/+qqEvv7Li9Tg2NTE1
การนำเสนอที่เกี่ยวข้อง
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน