Gold prices (XAU/USD) 
XAUUSD recorded a sharp daily surge, hitting a more than two-week high of $4,140-$4,141 per troy ounce during Wednesday's Asian trading session.
Market sensitivity increased sharply following the thawing of speculation about political de-escalation through backdoor diplomacy. However, this sharp rally rests on a very fragile foundation, given that the real kinetic warfare on the ground is actually escalating.
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✅ Diplomacy: Pakistan's Mediating Role in Rubio & Eskandar Momeni
The daily bullish sentiment in gold was fueled by geopolitical maneuvers that raised hopes for a easing of energy price shocks:
- Pakistani Mediator Moves: Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni paid an official visit to Islamabad to request Pakistan to act as the primary mediator. This signal echoes US Secretary of State Marco Rubio's statement that Washington remains open to negotiations.
- Hopes of Easing Energy Inflation: Speculation that neither side has fully abandoned the negotiating table triggered a flash short-covering in gold, as traders projected a potential de-escalation that could ease upstream inflationary pressures.
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✅ Kinetic Reality: 11th Night of Attacks, Tankers Hit & Houthi Blockade
Despite the prevailing diplomatic narrative, the physical battleground confirms the deepening military confrontation:
- Trump's Nuclear Strike & 11th Night: The US military confirmed the completion of an 11th consecutive night of airstrikes that destroyed an Iranian drone hangar. Donald Trump asserted that the strikes would intensify to hit every location in Tehran's nuclear facilities.
- Two Tankers Hit in Hormuz: Iran retaliated by raining down missiles on US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan, and confirmed the successful missile strikes on two oil tankers that attempted to breach the Strait of Hormuz.
- New Houthi Front & 88% Rate Hike Bets: The Houthi militia in Yemen officially opened a new front by blockading Saudi Arabia's maritime borders. The closure of the Gulf energy corridor sent crude oil prices to a new high since June 12. According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, bets that the Fed will raise its benchmark interest rate by the end of the year skyrocketed to 88%, locking the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) in a long-term uptrend.
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✅ XAU/USD Technical Analysis (Intraday H4)
Technically, on the 4-hour (H4) chart, the surge to $4,141 has brought gold to test the upper limit of its overhead supply zone, where the risk of a bull trap is very high:
- Bull Trap Warning at $4,140: The sharp rise, coupled with an 88% probability of a Fed rate hike, indicates that this rally is highly vulnerable to a rapid fading. As long as gold fails to close consistently above $4,145, the current rally is seen as a sell-on-rally opportunity for major players.
- Reversal Scenario: If the post-diplomacy news surge loses steam, a drop below $4,095 would quickly drag gold back down to test the psychological base of $4,020.
XAUUSD recorded a sharp daily surge, hitting a more than two-week high of $4,140-$4,141 per troy ounce during Wednesday's Asian trading session. Market sensitivity increased sharply following the thawing of speculation about political de-escalation through backdoor diplomacy. However, this sharp rally rests on a very fragile foundation, given that the real kinetic warfare on the ground is actually escalating.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
✅ Diplomacy: Pakistan's Mediating Role in Rubio & Eskandar Momeni
The daily bullish sentiment in gold was fueled by geopolitical maneuvers that raised hopes for a easing of energy price shocks:
- Pakistani Mediator Moves: Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni paid an official visit to Islamabad to request Pakistan to act as the primary mediator. This signal echoes US Secretary of State Marco Rubio's statement that Washington remains open to negotiations.
- Hopes of Easing Energy Inflation: Speculation that neither side has fully abandoned the negotiating table triggered a flash short-covering in gold, as traders projected a potential de-escalation that could ease upstream inflationary pressures.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
✅ Kinetic Reality: 11th Night of Attacks, Tankers Hit & Houthi Blockade
Despite the prevailing diplomatic narrative, the physical battleground confirms the deepening military confrontation:
- Trump's Nuclear Strike & 11th Night: The US military confirmed the completion of an 11th consecutive night of airstrikes that destroyed an Iranian drone hangar. Donald Trump asserted that the strikes would intensify to hit every location in Tehran's nuclear facilities.
- Two Tankers Hit in Hormuz: Iran retaliated by raining down missiles on US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan, and confirmed the successful missile strikes on two oil tankers that attempted to breach the Strait of Hormuz.
- New Houthi Front & 88% Rate Hike Bets: The Houthi militia in Yemen officially opened a new front by blockading Saudi Arabia's maritime borders. The closure of the Gulf energy corridor sent crude oil prices to a new high since June 12. According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, bets that the Fed will raise its benchmark interest rate by the end of the year skyrocketed to 88%, locking the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) in a long-term uptrend.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
✅ XAU/USD Technical Analysis (Intraday H4)
Technically, on the 4-hour (H4) chart, the surge to $4,141 has brought gold to test the upper limit of its overhead supply zone, where the risk of a bull trap is very high:
- Bull Trap Warning at $4,140: The sharp rise, coupled with an 88% probability of a Fed rate hike, indicates that this rally is highly vulnerable to a rapid fading. As long as gold fails to close consistently above $4,145, the current rally is seen as a sell-on-rally opportunity for major players.
- Reversal Scenario: If the post-diplomacy news surge loses steam, a drop below $4,095 would quickly drag gold back down to test the psychological base of $4,020.
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การนำเสนอที่เกี่ยวข้อง
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน