On the M15 timeframe, gold is currently moving in a sideways structure while waiting for its next bullish leg, with price holding around 4009–4012 and still unable to break decisively out of the short-term consolidation zone. The current setup suggests that the market is compressed between nearby support below and resistance above, which means short-term moves are more likely to be liquidity tests rather than a confirmed directional breakout.
From a technical perspective, there are two main scenarios to watch. The first is a move higher into Turn Area 2 around 4072, where price may face profit-taking pressure and pull back toward the 4040 zone. The second scenario is a drop into Turn Area 1 around 3948–3959 to build momentum, followed by a rebound back toward 3982 and potentially higher if buying pressure returns more clearly. The key idea here is to avoid entering in the middle of a noisy range; instead, traders should wait for price to react clearly at Turn Area 1 or Turn Area 2 to improve the quality of scalping entries.
On the macro side, gold is still being driven by two opposing forces. On one hand, US–Iran tensions and energy risks around the Strait of Hormuz continue to support safe-haven demand. On the other hand, elevated energy prices are keeping inflation concerns alive, reinforcing the view that US interest rates may stay higher for longer, which prevents gold from breaking out decisively. The latest gold price is around 4011.73 USD/oz, down 0.13% on the day, down 4.29% over the past month, but still 18.03% higher than a year ago.
On the US data side, the more important upcoming catalysts are medium-term events such as Jobless Claims (23/07), the PCE Price Index (30/07), and especially the Fed Interest Rate Decision (29/07, 06:00 PM US time). This means that, in the short term, gold is still likely to be driven more by price action and technical reaction at the turn zones than by a major same-day macro shock.
For short-term traders, the more appropriate approach right now is to focus on entries around Turn Area 1 or Turn Area 2, or drop down to M1/M5 for more precise scalping confirmation. In a compressed market like this, the edge does not come from guessing direction too early, but from waiting for the right zone and following real price reaction.
Core idea: gold is still ranging while waiting for its next bullish move, but the best setups remain the ones taken from clear reactions at Turn Area 1 or Turn Area 2 — personal view of Leo_WarRoom.
From a technical perspective, there are two main scenarios to watch. The first is a move higher into Turn Area 2 around 4072, where price may face profit-taking pressure and pull back toward the 4040 zone. The second scenario is a drop into Turn Area 1 around 3948–3959 to build momentum, followed by a rebound back toward 3982 and potentially higher if buying pressure returns more clearly. The key idea here is to avoid entering in the middle of a noisy range; instead, traders should wait for price to react clearly at Turn Area 1 or Turn Area 2 to improve the quality of scalping entries.
On the macro side, gold is still being driven by two opposing forces. On one hand, US–Iran tensions and energy risks around the Strait of Hormuz continue to support safe-haven demand. On the other hand, elevated energy prices are keeping inflation concerns alive, reinforcing the view that US interest rates may stay higher for longer, which prevents gold from breaking out decisively. The latest gold price is around 4011.73 USD/oz, down 0.13% on the day, down 4.29% over the past month, but still 18.03% higher than a year ago.
On the US data side, the more important upcoming catalysts are medium-term events such as Jobless Claims (23/07), the PCE Price Index (30/07), and especially the Fed Interest Rate Decision (29/07, 06:00 PM US time). This means that, in the short term, gold is still likely to be driven more by price action and technical reaction at the turn zones than by a major same-day macro shock.
For short-term traders, the more appropriate approach right now is to focus on entries around Turn Area 1 or Turn Area 2, or drop down to M1/M5 for more precise scalping confirmation. In a compressed market like this, the edge does not come from guessing direction too early, but from waiting for the right zone and following real price reaction.
Core idea: gold is still ranging while waiting for its next bullish move, but the best setups remain the ones taken from clear reactions at Turn Area 1 or Turn Area 2 — personal view of Leo_WarRoom.
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