🎯 TP1: $0.177293 (+0.86%) │ TP2: $0.176140 (+1.50%)
🛑 SL: $0.181275 (-1.37%) │ R/R: 1 : 1.1
⚠️ SL is placed beyond the nearest candle wicks to reduce the risk of accidental triggering
FUNDAMENTAL BACKGROUND
The XLM/USDT market is moving primarily under the influence of a general decline in risk appetite. Despite the long-term growth of RWA assets on the Stellar network to $4 billion, current project news lacks strong catalysts. The altseason index at 26/100 confirms the weakness of altcoins, while tensions between the US and Iran are intensifying capital outflows from the crypto market. Tomorrow, 09/04/2026, US employment data (NFP) is expected to be released, with a forecast of +55K new jobs compared to the previous -23K, which could increase volatility.
TECHNICAL PICTURE
ADX 17.6 indicates a weak trend with a slight advantage for buyers, but the EMA 20 and EMA 50 are converging at $0.18, forming a resistance zone. MACD shows a neutral position with zero values for the main line and signal. The current price of $0.178830 is in the middle of the range ($0.171250–$0.182400), limiting the potential for movement without a strong impulse.
PROBABILITY MODEL
The probability of a bearish reversal is 38%, with a 37% chance of consolidation. Model confidence is 50%, reflecting the ambiguity of technical signals amid a weak trend.
DIRECTION
🔴 SELL — resistance at the EMA 20 and EMA 50 levels limits upside potential.
🛑 SL: $0.181275 (-1.37%) │ R/R: 1 : 1.1
⚠️ SL is placed beyond the nearest candle wicks to reduce the risk of accidental triggering
FUNDAMENTAL BACKGROUND
The XLM/USDT market is moving primarily under the influence of a general decline in risk appetite. Despite the long-term growth of RWA assets on the Stellar network to $4 billion, current project news lacks strong catalysts. The altseason index at 26/100 confirms the weakness of altcoins, while tensions between the US and Iran are intensifying capital outflows from the crypto market. Tomorrow, 09/04/2026, US employment data (NFP) is expected to be released, with a forecast of +55K new jobs compared to the previous -23K, which could increase volatility.
TECHNICAL PICTURE
ADX 17.6 indicates a weak trend with a slight advantage for buyers, but the EMA 20 and EMA 50 are converging at $0.18, forming a resistance zone. MACD shows a neutral position with zero values for the main line and signal. The current price of $0.178830 is in the middle of the range ($0.171250–$0.182400), limiting the potential for movement without a strong impulse.
PROBABILITY MODEL
The probability of a bearish reversal is 38%, with a 37% chance of consolidation. Model confidence is 50%, reflecting the ambiguity of technical signals amid a weak trend.
DIRECTION
🔴 SELL — resistance at the EMA 20 and EMA 50 levels limits upside potential.
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน