Economic Cycles

18-Year Cycle — Late 2020s Risk Window This chart looks at the 18-year market cycle and how major financial disruptions have repeatedly appeared around similar phases of the cycle. The tops and bottoms of the red sine wave both represent financial-stress windows. The idea is not that only the peaks or only the troughs matter. Different crisis events have appeared around both extremes of the cycle, which is why the chart marks crashes, panics, bear markets, and financial disruptions near both the upper and lower turning points. Hist

by MarketWarfare

Nifty 50 – Long-Term Trend at a Critical Level The 200-week SMA has acted as an important long-term trend reference for the Nifty 50 across multiple market cycles. The chart highlights several instances where prolonged corrections found support around this moving average before the broader uptrend resumed. Nifty is now approaching the 200-week SMA near 22,606, with the index currently around 22,716 with a low at 22569. The investment thesis is simple: this is an important zone to monitor for a long-term trend response. A sustained hold aro

Elliott Wave View: Gold (XAUUSD) Working Through Zigzag Pattern The short‑term Elliott Wave view in Gold (XAUUSD) indicates that the cycle from the August 25, 2026 high is unfolding as a zigzag corrective structure. From the August 25 peak, wave A concluded at $4282.23, followed by a rally in wave B that terminated at $4509.59. The metal has since resumed its decline in wave C, which is subdividing into a five‑wave impulse pattern. This development highlights the continuation of corrective pressure within the broader structure. From the peak of wave B, wave

by Elliottwave-Forecast

Iran | When the Value of Money Tells the Story ⏱️ Reading Time: ~2 minutes This is not just a chart about the dollar. It is a long-term look at the changing value of the Iranian rial against the U.S. dollar. When we step back and look at USD/IRR over several decades, the scale of this move becomes difficult to ignore. But Elliott Wave asks a different question: What is the structure behind the move? On the chart, the area around 42,000 stands out as an important structural reference. The powerful move that followed raises a larger quest

by Mehdi_Abbasi_EWP

Silver: The Bullish Case Rests on the Zigzag Family ⏱️ Reading time: about 3 minutes In the bullish case, the current structure could complete with a Simple Zigzag. One reason this scenario remains structurally valid from the perspective of the Elliott Wave Principle is the alternation between corrective waves. The Wave II at the higher degree was an Extended Flat, while the current correction may develop with a sharper and different personality. From a corrective-character perspective, this combination can therefore remain consistent with the pr

by Mehdi_Abbasi_EWP

Episode 09 — When Elliott Began Drawing the Boundaries 🎬 Mr. Nobody’s Chronicle Season I — The History of Elliott Wave Principle Episode 09 — When Elliott Began Drawing the Boundaries ⏱️ Reading time: ~3 minutes “If this pattern truly exists, there must be a point where it can no longer continue.” In the previous episode, we followed Ralph Nelson Elliott deeper into the world of structure. He was no longer simply watching prices move up and down. He wanted to understand something deeper. How was a large movement built from smaller movements? W

by Mehdi_Abbasi_EWP

Gold moving towards $3,750 !!!It will take days, but the price target is here; sell into any upward move.

BTC Mirror Candidate The current sequence is showing a possible 4 → 3 → 2 → 3 → 4 time structure, measured in monthly bars between alternating pivots. If the mirror continues to develop, B′ would fall around October and A′ around January. One detail worth watching: B′ may inherit the character of a relatively minor swing, while A′ carries the possibility of becoming a more significant H or L. Still only a candidate at this stage. The next pivots will tell us whether the symmetry holds.

Gold: Fear or Structure?⏱️ Reading Time: ~2 minutes In the market, no structure is carved in stone. Price itself creates the structure with every move—and as its behavior changes, that structure can change with it. On the Gold chart, what matters to me is not simply where the market goes next. The real question is: What structure are the bulls and bears building? Sometimes price looks calm and corrective, while underneath it, a force is developing that could completely change the path. At other times, a structure

by Mehdi_Abbasi_EWP

Bitcoin Halving Cycle Midpoints Suggest a Final Leg Down Bitcoin Halving Cycle Midpoints The yellow lines mark each Bitcoin halving date, while the red lines mark the halfway point between each halving cycle. What stands out is how Bitcoin has historically behaved after moving beyond those red midpoint markers. In prior cycles, that part of the cycle has tended to coincide with increased downside pressure before the next major halving window. Based on this structure, I’m still expecting one final leg lower before I’m willing to call the cycle low.

by MarketWarfare

Week 40 - A Potential Turning Point Looking backwards from the current week, four previous weekly pivots fall at Fibonacci intervals: 13, 21, 34, and 89 weeks. Just another piece of timing information to keep in mind as the week unfolds.

XAUUSD 4H Disclaimer : Not Financial advice there is some target for XAUUSD 4H using Price Theory

Bitcoin 1H | Understanding Structure, Not Predicting Price ⏱️ Reading Time: ~2 minutes The Daily chart gives us the bigger picture. The 1H chart helps us understand what Bitcoin may do next as that structure develops. Right now, Bitcoin is still forming a corrective structure, so both paths remain on the table. 🟦 Bullish Scenario If the current structure breaks higher and develops into a clear five-wave move, the bullish scenario gains strength. The first key confirmation level is around 84,601. Above that, the next important levels are: 85,662 →

by Mehdi_Abbasi_EWP

Mr. Nobody | Bitcoin Daily — Structure Before Prediction ⏱️ Reading Time: ~4 minutes I want to begin this analysis with one simple rule: We are not here to prove the bullish scenario or the bearish scenario. First, we read the structure and let price show us which path is developing. On the Daily timeframe, Bitcoin’s larger structure still allows for more than one interpretation. The recent decline can be viewed as a five-wave impulse at a higher degree, while the sideways structure that followed may be part of a more complex correction. But this

by Mehdi_Abbasi_EWP

Gold short term view. 28/Sept/26 XAUUSD is still on ABC (yellow circled) correction. an accumulation stage /forming a wedge pattern at base before a Mark up / Rally where price now is still yet to complete wave (3) (green)..

$INTC Hopped into Intel end of July at $81, rode the Q2 Earnings Reports and CPI and Labor Statistics Reports. Lost some money with some call options right after they sold their stock at $95 diluting a small portion of their outstanding shares. However, this seems like an easy 1:4 RR set up. NASDAQ:INTC is trading close to record high. After the dilution there has been a rather sharp uptrend, buyers dominating the auction, until end of last week (Thu. Sept. 24), VWAP indicating sellers are dominatin

Fed Leadership Cycle & Bitcoin Turning Points This chart highlights a repeating Bitcoin structure around major Federal Reserve leadership dates. The blue circles are simply copy-and-pasted from one another to show how similar the price behavior looks around each event: 2014 — Janet Yellen 2018 — Jerome Powell 2021 — Powell renomination 2026 — Kevin Warsh The point is not that a Fed chair change directly causes Bitcoin to fall. The idea I’m exploring is whether these dates are occurring around the same stage of a broader monetary, liquidi

by MarketWarfare

MNT to the Clouds? A 5-Wave Decline May Have Just Ended Something interesting is happening on the MNT weekly chart . After a prolonged decline from the previous highs, price has started recovering — but the recovery itself isn’t the most important development. What matters more is that MNT has broken above the descending trendline that defined much of the previous bearish structure. When we combine that breakout with a possible Elliott Wave count, an interesting scenario begins to emerge: Could the 5-wave decline be complete, with MNT now ente

by ProTrado_com

SUI even after a 80% rally this chart isn't bullish enough Same behaviour three times now. Each leg down has ended with a vertical spike through the range high that held for a handful of daily candles and then failed: 2 in January, 1.4 in May, and 1.2 this month. The 80% move off 0.65 looks impressive in isolation, but structurally it's the third instance of the same failed breakout, not a trend change. The other problem is time. Real accumulation takes years of flat, boring range with volatility bleeding out of the market. What we have here is a base

My 3-Phase Bitcoin Bear Market Timing Model This is my Bitcoin Timing Model, designed to break the bear market cycle into three distinct phases. The model is based on recurring timing relationships I’ve observed across previous Bitcoin cycles and the broader macro environment. Phase 1 — Initial breakdown / transition into the bear market Phase 2 — Continuation and consolidation as the cycle develops Phase 3 — Final stage of the bear market, where I watch for the last major leg down and eventual cycle low One of the more interesting c

by MarketWarfare

Gold | Has the Triangle Completed and Is the Next Bearish Wave B ⏱️ Reading Time: ~2 minutes In our previous analysis, we considered both bullish and bearish scenarios. However, based on the current structure, the bullish scenario is temporarily off the table. 🔻 Bearish Scenario If the Triangle shown on the chart has indeed completed, the current move may mark the beginning of a new bearish structure. In this case, we would expect the decline to develop through at least a three-wave structure. The important point is that a deeper decline could retrace a s

by Mehdi_Abbasi_EWP

Target hit 4256 hit. now looking to see price move a little lower at least towards the 4244 price level

Bitcoin 15M | Structure Must Confirm the Path ⏱️ Reading Time: ~2 minutes Hey everyone, In this short-term Bitcoin update, I’m looking at two main paths. At the moment, however, the bearish scenario has the stronger structural position. 🟢 Bullish Scenario For the bullish scenario to become more convincing, the market needs to prove itself through a clear motive structure. Simply breaking above a resistance level or making a sharp move higher is not enough for me. The new advance should develop a recognizable impulsive structure, follow

by Mehdi_Abbasi_EWP

Brent Crude Oil | Is a Nested Structure Developing?⏱️ Reading time: About 2 minutes In this latest 4H update of Brent crude oil, the main focus remains on the bullish structure. However, this scenario can only become stronger if the market continues to maintain a sequence of nested structures across multiple degrees. At the moment, after the initial wave, we are watching the development of 1&2 structures across different degrees. The recent decline does not invalidate this scenario by itself, as it could still be part of a lower-degree correct

by Mehdi_Abbasi_EWP