Third False Breakdown in PlayHello, traders!🌴
Today's update will be brief as we're simply confirming the beginning of the scenario discussed yesterday, with yet another false breakdown now playing out✅:
A break below 62,500 followed by a move back above would signal another false breakdown. If that happens, it would be the third false breakdown we've seen since last Monday, increasing the odds of a quick move back toward 64,890.
Yesterday's breakdown occurred during the U.S. session, and today's Asian session has already brought the recovery back above 62,500.
🦬🚀If this scenario continues to play out, the probability of a fast move toward the next resistance levels increases:
Resistance levels:
• 62,800–63,100 — Cluster of the 1H EMA 100 & EMA 200 and the 4H EMA 100
• 63,700 — 4H EMA 200
• 64,890 — Strong horizontal resistance formed during February–March 2026
🐻🪓While the short-term outlook remains bullish, it's important to keep the bearish scenario in mind as well. If Bitcoin loses 62,500, the next support levels are:
Support levels:
• 62,500 — Key support level where price has been consolidating since early June
• 60,800 — Local horizontal support
• 60,000 — Strong horizontal support
Peace, everyone🌄
⚠️ Disclaimer:
All information shared on this channel is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. The author is not responsible for your trading decisions. Always manage your risk and make your own independent decisions. 
Long
Long
BioNTech (BNTX) LONG — 4H ALMA Setup (WR 80%)█ SETUP
NASDAQ:BNTX · 4H · long only.
(Context: BioNTech — mRNA platform; oncology pivot post-COVID; Pfizer Comirnaty partner.)
ALMA Averaging Strategy: ALMA 3 / σ2, SD band 2, min diff 6/1, 25% per bar, up to 4 adds, hard stop −10% from average entry.
Strategy Tester (BNTX 4H):
Win rate 80% · profit factor 2.3 · max drawdown 17%
Avg winning trade +10.6% · avg losing trade −8.8%
Typical hold ~18×4H bars on winners — biotech mean-reversion sleeve on the US cash grid
█ WHY NOW
Monday US cash open — fresh 4H ALMA long on 13 Jul 13:30 UTC ~ $91.42 .
First lot on the template at the VWAP support cluster (~$91.02–91.36) after a July grind in the low-$90s — bar-close on the 4H sleeve, not an oncology-headline or patent-win chase.
Hard stop zone −10% from fill ~ $82.28 . Exits follow Pine ALMA flip + min diff or the hard stop.
═
█ MACRO
Sector: BNTX = mRNA / immuno-oncology pivot — COVID revenue fade, pipeline catalysts (pumitamig, BNT324 prostate ADC Phase 3), ~€16.8B cash (Q1).
Tape (Jun–13 Jul): Mixed window — UPC patent win vs Promosome (02–08 Jul, Comirnaty cleared in Europe) and Lancet mRNA efficacy meta-analysis vs German manufacturing divestiture talks (~1,860 jobs, Handelsblatt/Reuters 03 Jul). $1B ADS buyback active (~$99M repurchased mid-June, avg ~$88.6). Morgan Stanley Buy maintained, PT $126→$119 (08 Jul); Morningstar 2-star «overvalued» after ~+11% over 30 days on one tape slice. Next: Q2 earnings ~04 Aug 2026 ; H2 oncology readouts on the calendar.
Execution is 4H ALMA at ~$91.42 in the support band — not a post-rally chase into MS’s trimmed PT zone (~$115–119).
█ OUTLOOK
Positive factors
- 80% WR · PF 2.3 · avg win +10.6% vs avg loss −8.8% on 109×4H trades — workable skew for a volatile biotech name
- Fresh 4H entry inside the 24h publish window — first lot at US cash, not a scale-in add
- ALMA — execution TF aligned: 4H LONG · L:1 vs avg L:3.8 — template direction matches the bar
- VWAP — support at fill: active support ~$91.02 / ~$91.36 · chart touch Support — entry sits on the lower VWAP band, not mid-range
- SMC — demand at fill: 4H bull FVG raid ~$91.42 (10 Jul) · 1D bull FVG enter ~$91.49 + OB enter normal bull — same-session demand tags
- EMA — below-session stretch (fuel): 1H Cur S:14 vs Avg S:4.2 · +0.8% dev — entry ladder stretched below on the faster TF
- Macro tailwinds in-window: UPC win + buyback execution vs restructuring noise — mixed tape suits a mean-reversion sleeve, not a breakout call
Negative factors
- ALMA — slow-TF headwind: 1D SHORT · S:5 vs avg S:4.2 · OVERHEAT-S — daily band still short-biased; adds risky if price extends without reset
- EMA — bear stack: 4H / 1D / 3D / 1W all Below — no full MTF reclaim; 4H only S:3 (+0.6% dev), not a deep crash discount
- VWAP — overhead: resistance ~$94.45 / ~$94.17 (Jul) — first mean-reversion ceiling a few percent above fill
- Restructuring headline risk: German site sales, job cuts, JPT Peptide exit — gap risk on US opens
- Analyst caution: MS PT cut · Morningstar overvalued — sentiment not uniformly bullish despite patent win
- Earnings ~04 Aug — binary biotech window ahead; 4H sleeve can whipsaw into the print
- Single first lot — no averaged discount yet if the bar extends lower before adds qualify
- Promosome may appeal UPC ruling — residual legal overhang
Takeaway: the 80% 4H template, VWAP support cluster, bull FVG/OB tags at ~$91, and 1H below-EMA stretch support a disciplined mean-reversion long at the cash open — but 1D ALMA OVERHEAT-SHORT and the full EMA bear stack cap conviction; macro is patent/buyback positive vs restructuring/analyst downgrade negative — biotech grind in the low-$90s, not a clean oncology breakout; nominal risk stays on −10% / Pine exit.
Base case: 4H ALMA holds ~$89–94 · VWAP support absorbs dips · slow work toward ~$94–95 resistance if bull FVG shelf holds.
Bear case: lose 4H ALMA · restructuring headline accelerates · pre-earnings de-risking · flush toward hard stop ~$82.28 from ~$91.42 entry.
Chart: BATS:BNTX 4H — ALMA Averaging Strategy.
Educational idea. Live position — past backtest ≠ future results. NFA. 
Long
Long
SNDK: From Buy the Dip to Losing Grip? Trend is Changing?!!! "buy the dip" to "sell the rally.
Since the beginning of the second bullish leg in March, SNDK had respected a rising trendline remarkably well. Every pullback found buyers at trendline support, while the Daily EMA20 acted as dynamic support throughout the advance.
That bullish structure has now changed.
The stock has broken below the rising trendline, completed a textbook retest, and failed to reclaim it. At the same time, price has closed below the Daily EMA20, turning both the trendline and the EMA into overhead resistance.
Adding to the bearish case, clear bearish divergence is visible, suggesting bullish momentum has been fading despite previous attempts to push higher.
🐻 Bearish Factors
📉 Trendline Breakdown
📊 EMA20 Lost
⚠️ Bearish Divergence
Momentum weakened while price was making higher highs, increasing the probability of a larger correction.
🔄 Market Structure Weakening
The combination of a trendline break, EMA20 loss, and bearish divergence suggests buyers are losing control.
🎯 Bearish Scenario
➡️ As long as SNDK remains below the broken trendline and EMA20, I expect rallies to be sold into rather than bought.
🚧 Immediate Resistance: 1850
🚧 Major Resistance: 2000
🚧 Bullish Reversal Zone: 2350
🎯 Primary Downside Target: 1300
📉 If bearish momentum accelerates, an even deeper correction cannot be ruled out.
⚠️ What I'm Watching
👀 To invalidate the current bearish momentum, I'd like to see:
✅ A decisive reclaim of 2000
✅ A strong daily close back above the broken trendline
✅ A sustained move above 2350, confirming buyers have regained control
Until then, I view rallies as potential relief bounces within a developing downtrend.
❌ Bearish Invalidation
🟢 A decisive daily close above 2350 would invalidate this bearish thesis and significantly improve the probability of a renewed bullish trend.
💡 For now, the technical picture has shifted from "buy the dip" to "sell the rally." Unless SNDK quickly reclaims its lost support levels, the path of least resistance appears to be lower, with 1300 as the first major downside objective. 
Short
Concentrix Corporation | CNXC | Long at $23.00Concentrix Corp NASDAQ:CNXC
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Price is trading within my selected simple moving average channel just below its historical mean (white line). Since the "crash" simple moving average is out of reach (values are negative), this channel now becomes the last remaining area of support/resistance. The lower portion of the channel is near $13.00 and it may get there before a true move up.
There are no more open price gaps below my entry point at $23.00, but so many more above that are likely to be closed if/when this starts to truly reverse.
INSIDERS
Mix of buying and selling: openinsider.com
GROWTH
Forward P/E = 3.2x
EPS and revenue anticipated to grow beyond 2026 .
FUNDAMENTALS
Annual Revenue = $10 billion
Current P/E = (negative, but forward is positive)
Bankruptcy Risk / Alman's Z-Score = 1.4 (some risk)
Debt-to-Equity = 2x (high)
Short-Term Debt / Quick Ratio = 1.2 (moderate risk)
Dividend Yield = 6.49%
Free Cash Flow Yield = 33.4% (high probability of continued dividend support)
Float = 43 million
Short Interest = 22.7% (short-squeeze candidate)
ACTION
While there is some debt strain with the company, NASDAQ:CNXC is an interesting play. More downside may be ahead (especially to the lower teens), but all those open price gaps above, financials likely to turn positive by 2027 (AI...), low float, high short interest, strong dividend, and a global leader as a customer experience provider are bullish signals. The question is whether the fundamentals are accurate. For now, I will assume so. I've created a starter position at $23.00. More will be added to the position if it dips to the lower part of the channel as described above.
TARGETS INTO 2029
$30.00 (30.4%)
$40.00 (73.9%)
If you enjoyed this idea, please consider following for more: www.tradingview.com 
Long
Long
62,500 Will Decide the Next MoveHey traders!👾🌴
Bitcoin held the 64,000 level pretty well over the weekend, but selling pressure kicked in as soon as the Asian session opened. Nothing critical has happened yet, but we're heading into the U.S. session right at the lower boundary of the current trading range around 62,500🛡️ 🛡️ 🛡️
This is a very strong level, and I don't expect the bulls🦬 to give it up without a fight.
Here are the three main scenarios I'm watching:
❌📉A break below 62,500 followed by acceptance under the level would open the door to 60,800 and then 60,000.
📈 A break below followed by a move back above 62,500 would signal another false breakdown. If that happens, it would be the third false breakdown we've seen since last Monday, increasing the odds of a quick move back toward 64,890.
✅ 📈 The market could also bounce immediately at the start of the U.S. session, with buyers stepping in to defend 62,500. In that case, the next target would once again be 64,890.
The support and resistance levels remain unchanged and are marked on the chart.
Peace!🌄 
Long
Long 
BTC Weekly Macro Update We’re approaching another weekly close and it’s looking like we’ll close above $63,500 — the previous resistance/rejection level I’ve been highlighting.
However, the candle is showing a very small body with almost no real momentum.
What matters now:
→ High volatility expected this week, especially with the new escalation in the Middle East. Aggressive moves possible in either direction — I lean toward downside risk, but things are moving fast so I’m staying cautious.
→ Massive resistance stacking on the daily at $65k–67k (as detailed in my previous analysis).
→ On the weekly timeframe, a rally into the $68,400 (200W EMA) – $71,000 (21W EMA) zone remains possible. That would fill the big imbalances and the FVG above. In my view, that’s the absolute best-case high for now.
I left 25% of my short-term longs running in case we see that move higher. My bear market bottom target and most likely bottom zone for BTC remains $53k–$45k.
For the time being, BTC is facing strong resistance. One more short-term sweep higher is still possible, but given the current news flow and order flow, rejection looks most likely.
What’s your bias into the weekly close?
NFA
DATAPATTNS is showing a bullish move at an ascending channelNSE:DATAPATTNS has been in a sustained bullish trend for several months and has recently found support at the lower boundary of its ascending channel on the daily timeframe , reinforcing the likelihood of continued upward momentum.
Additionally, the sectoral index , NSE:NIFTY_IND_DEFENCE , has retested its all-time-high with a morning star pattern , providing further confirmation of relative strength among the sectors and supporting the top-down approach.
The Daily RSI(14) at 47.51 is also indicating a bullish reversal signaling a potential formation of a higher low with a fresh leg up . The stock has currently tested its 50-day EMA with a hammer and a support at its previous broken resistance (Change in polarity) reinforcing the bullish setup.
With a move above 4355 , NSE:DATAPATTNS could potentially move towards 4660. Consider entering above the high of the hammer with a stoploss at 3800 on a daily closing basis.
Key Support Levels: 4230,4140,3800.
Targets: 4660,4930.5
Disclaimer:
Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks, read all related documents carefully before investing. Securities quoted here are exemplary, not recommendatory. I am not a SEBI registered financial advisor, please consult your financial advisor before investing. Please note that I do not guarantee any assured returns for the securities quoted here.
Stay updated with my latest trading ideas and market analysis by following me on TradingView.
Hari Narayan N
Chartered Market Technician (CMT – All 3 Levels Cleared)
Long
Sector View: Leadership Is Broadening — And That's What MattersThe latest TradeSentinel sector dashboard continues to show a constructive market beneath the index headlines. The S&P 500 is not simply being carried by a handful of mega-cap stocks anymore. Participation has broadened into Financials, Industrials, Healthcare and equal-weight Technology, while volatility remains supportive.
1️⃣ Where is capital actually flowing?
Capital continues flowing into Technology, Financials, Industrials, Healthcare and Semiconductors, with equal-weight technology outperforming alongside the major indices. Small caps are also participating, suggesting institutional buying is expanding beyond the largest companies.
Market breadth remains healthy, with improving participation supporting the current advance rather than contradicting it.
2️⃣ What matters
SPY, QQQ and RSP are aligned above their major moving averages.
Financials and Industrials continue to strengthen.
Equal-weight Technology confirms leadership is broadening.
Volatility remains supportive.
Relative rotation is occurring without breaking the overall trend.
3️⃣ What is mostly noise
Daily sector fluctuations.
Individual headline-driven moves.
Short-term weakness in isolated sectors like Communication Services.
Trying to predict the next index move from one day's price action.
The real signal comes from where capital consistently accumulates, not from the noisiest daily performers.
4️⃣ TradeSentinel Takeaway
Our framework focuses on the evidence rather than predictions. The current evidence continues to favor a healthy momentum environment with selective leadership rotation—not broad deterioration. That means screening should stay concentrated on sectors showing sustained institutional accumulation while monitoring emerging rotations rather than reacting to every daily swing.
The objective isn't to predict the next move. It's to identify where the weight of evidence continues to improve. Weekly Review: Internals Still Support the TrendMarkets don't advance because of price alone. Sustainable trends are built on healthy participation, expanding leadership and controlled volatility. This week's Market Pressure Dashboard suggests those foundations remain largely intact.
The market is in an Acceptance phase. Volatility remains subdued, long-term participation is healthy, and price continues to hold above key trend levels. The only notable change is that leadership has narrowed slightly as fewer stocks are making new highs.
1️⃣ Thesis
The primary trend remains constructive because the weight of evidence continues to support price. This is a selective advance rather than a broad surge, which favors disciplined stock selection over indiscriminate buying.
2️⃣ What validates the thesis?
VIX/VIX3M remains at 0.81, confirming a normalized volatility regime.
Around 62% of S&P 500 stocks remain above their 20-day moving average, while roughly 66% remain above their 200-day moving average, reflecting healthy participation across multiple timeframes.
Price continues to respect its intermediate and long-term trend structure.
No evidence of panic selling or abnormal downside volume has emerged.
3️⃣ What invalidates the thesis?
A sustained decline in market breadth, continued deterioration in new highs versus new lows, or a renewed rise in the VIX/VIX3M ratio back above 1.0 would indicate that internal conditions are no longer confirming price.
4️⃣ Why this framework matters
1. Reduction of Uncertainty / Confusion
Rather than predicting the next market move, this dashboard evaluates whether the underlying evidence is improving or deteriorating. It replaces opinions with observable market behavior.
"I don't need to know the future; I need to assess whether evidence is improving."
2. Reduction of Effort
Every week the same core conditions are assessed: volatility, participation, leadership and price confirmation. This creates a repeatable decision process instead of reacting to every headline or market fluctuation.
"I don't need to analyze everything; I need to recognize a handful of recurring conditions."
3. Identity Reinforcement
Consistent investing comes from following a disciplined framework rather than making predictions. The objective is to align decisions with the evidence and let probabilities guide the process.
"I am a process-driven investor, not a prediction-driven investor." The Pressure Is Building Below 65K!Hi traders!
Bitcoin continues to trade confidently near the upper boundary of the 62.5K–65K trading range, gradually approaching the second target at 64,890✅
Over the past 24 hours, the 200 EMA on the 4H timeframe has done a solid job acting as support 🛡️🛡️🛡️, preventing price from closing below it despite the break of the local trendline, which can also be seen on the chart.
In other words, we're now seeing price being squeezed toward the 65K resistance by the 200 EMA (4H). 🚀
As for the lower boundary of the range, the 62,500 support level is now reinforced by the 100 EMA (4H), further strengthening the technical foundation for buyers🛡️🛡️🛡️
In other words, the technical picture continues to strengthen in favor of the bulls 🦬✊🏼 However, until we see a confirmed breakout above 65K, the key levels remain unchanged.
📈 Current resistance:
64,890 — Strong horizontal resistance formed during February–March 2026.
🪓 Current support levels:
62,500 — Key support level where price has been consolidating since early June + 100 EMA (4H).
60,800 — Local horizontal support.
60,000 — Strong horizontal support.
Peace, everyone! 🌄
⚠️ Disclaimer:
All information shared on this channel is for educational and informational purposes only and is not investment advice. The author is not responsible for your trading decisions. Always manage your risks and make decisions independently. Long 
Short 
Long
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) LONG — 3D ALMA Setup (WR 79%)█ SETUP
NASDAQ:NDX · 3D · long only.
(Context: Nasdaq-100 index — mega-cap growth / chip-beta sleeve.)
ALMA Averaging Strategy: ALMA 3 / σ2, SD band 2, min diff 4/3, 25% per bar, up to 4 adds, hard stop −10% from average entry.
Strategy Tester (NDX 3D):
Win rate 79% · profit factor 5.1 · max drawdown 6%
Avg winning trade +21.0% · avg losing trade −9.0%
Typical hold ~52×3D bars on winners — index mean-reversion on the 3D ALMA sleeve
═
█ WHY NOW
Thursday US cash — fresh 3D ALMA long on 10 Jul 13:45 UTC ~ 29,727 .
First lot on the high-WR 3D template after the July pullback into the ~29.7k bull-FVG / support-break cluster — bar-close on the index sleeve, not a “Nasdaq 100 ATH tweet” chase.
Hard stop zone −10% from fill ~ 26,754 . Exits follow Pine ALMA flip + min diff or the hard stop.
═
█ MACRO
Sector: NDX = Nasdaq-100 growth basket — Mag7 + chip complex beta; tape reads index futures, not single-name earnings.
Tape (10 Jul): Wall St flat into SK Hynix US debut while chip names cushion the tape; Nasdaq futures slip on listing / Middle East headline noise — index execution on the 3D bar, not a one-day IPO trade.
Execution is 3D ALMA on ~29,727, not a macro call on Iran headlines alone.
═
█ OUTLOOK
Positive factors
- 79% WR · PF 5.1 · avg win +21.0% vs avg loss −9.0% on a deep 3D sample — rare payoff skew for an index sleeve
- ALMA — OVERHEAT-S (fuel): 3D S:5 vs SAvg:3.0 · 1H S:4 vs SAvg:3.9 — stretched below-band on the entry ladder
- TL AI — support break bounce: Support Break (2 bars) · B68% Br32% (n=47) — post-break bounce history on the tag
- SMC — weekly bid: 1W FVG raid bull ~29,636 · B62% Br38% (n=255) — HTF demand under the fill zone
- Regime shift: 1H / 4H / 1D EMA first-bar close above on the snapshot board — young above-session on faster TFs
Negative factors
- SMC — daily/4H supply at fill: 1D + 4H bear FVG enter ~29,727 · Br59% / Br56% — overhead inefficiency tags the same bar as entry
- EMA — slow stretch above: 3D Cur L:23 vs Avg L:19.1 · −4.8% dev — time above on the execution ladder caps add quality
- EMA — weekly extension: 1W Cur L:15 vs Avg L:36.0 · −12.9% dev — young above-session on the slow chart, not overheat but extended from mean
- Fresh first lot only — no averaged discount if the 3D bar extends lower before adds qualify
Takeaway: the 79% WR 3D template, ALMA below-band stretch, TL support-break bounce skew, and weekly bull FVG support a disciplined index long at ~29,727, but bear FVG on the fill bar and 3D/1W time-above EMA cap quality — Nasdaq grind sleeve, not a chip-IPO rip; nominal risk stays on −10% / Pine exit.
Base case: 3D ALMA holds ~29.4k–30.2k · bear FVG shelf absorbs dips · slow grind if chip tape stays bid.
Bear case: lose 3D ALMA · Br56–59% daily FVG wins · flush toward hard stop ~26,754 from ~29,727 entry.
Chart: NASDAQ_DLY:NDX 3D — ALMA Averaging Strategy.
Educational idea. Live position — past backtest ≠ future results. NFA. 
Long
Can Bulls Clear 7555?Hi everyone!🌴☀️
Yesterday I published a detailed SPX analysis where I mentioned:
"Given the current technical structure, I believe the most likely scenario is a continuation toward the all-time high at 7625, provided the U.S.–Iran conflict does not escalate further and instead remains stable or gradually de-escalates."
✅So far, that's exactly what we're seeing, as the market continues to move confidently toward the ATH.
❗️As a follow-up to yesterday's post, I'd like to draw your attention to the market's reaction (highlighted by the red arrows) to the local resistance level at 7555 on the 4H timeframe.
I consider this level to be the key factor in determining the next move.
📈💎If SPX breaks above 7555 and manages to hold that level, clearing the all-time high at 7625 should not be a major challenge. In that case, the path toward the next target at 7950 opens up.
📉🧨However, if price gets rejected at 7555 once again or forms another false breakout, there's a high probability we'll see a move back toward the 7450–7500 area, where the 100 EMA and 200 EMA on the 4H timeframe are currently located.
If those moving averages are broken with strong momentum, the next key support levels become:
🪓 7300 — Local horizontal support.
🪓 7200 — Area of the 100 EMA (1D).
🪓 7000 — Previous ATH.
Peace, everyone! 🌄 
Long
Short
