BTC Lost 78,028 And Tagged 76,219.BTC Lost 78,028 And Tagged 76,219.
BTC kept falling after losing the 78,028 shelf, tagged 76,219 overnight, and is now trying to base near 76,480. The 4H leans up on the bounce attempt with a compression signal, while the hourly reads neutral, so the two are split - and a Bitcoin break has never been leanable on this desk regardless. Neutral.
Resistance: 78,028 - the lost shelf, now overhead
Key resistance: 79,318 - the next level up
Current price: 76,480
Support: 76,219 - the overnight low
Key support: 74,182 - the level that matters below
Structural floor: 71,323 - deeper support
Two paths from here:
It holds 76,219 and reclaims 78,028 on a close. That turns this leg into a flush-and-recover and reopens the move back toward 79,318. The compression on the higher timeframe says a sharp move is loading, but it does not say which way.
It loses 76,219 instead. That opens 74,182, the real structural test underneath, where the larger parabola gets its first serious question. Below the overnight low the pullback stops being shallow.
74,182 is the line that matters below; a reclaim of 78,028 would call today a flush.
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Study, not financial advice. SPY Held Below The 765.71 Floor It Broke.SPY Held Below The 765.71 Floor It Broke.
SPY is trading near 761, still below the 765.71 floor it broke yesterday, so the range breakdown stands and it is now testing 759.13. The 4H structure is short and accelerating, but the hourly has turned up on a bounce off the low, so the two timeframes disagree on timing - which keeps a fresh lean off the table this morning even though the bias below 765.71 is lower. There is data on the clock too: JOLTS job openings at 10:00 Eastern, and Friday's jobs report is the bigger event later this week. Neutral.
Resistance: 765.71 - the broken floor, now overhead
Key resistance: 771.58 - the old range top
Current price: 761.07
Support: 759.13 - the shelf being tested
Key support: 753.22 - the next level down
Structural floor: 746.26 - deeper support
Two paths from here:
The bounce fails under 765.71 and it loses 759.13 on a close. That extends the breakdown to 753.22 and then 746.26, and keeps the lower structure in control. As long as price stays under 765.71 this is the path with the wind behind it.
It reclaims 765.71 on a close instead. That negates the breakdown, pulls price back inside the two-week range, and points at 771.58 again. The hourly bounce is the early hint of this, but it needs the level back to mean anything.
759.13 is the level that keeps the breakdown going; 765.71 is the one that undoes it.
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Study, not financial advice. Crude Oil | Three Nested Structures or a Larger Correction?⏱️ Reading Time: About 2 Minutes
On the 1-hour crude oil chart, the current structure has reached an important point where two main paths remain possible. However, for now, my primary focus remains on the bullish structure.
From the recent low, the market is showing signs of impulsive behavior and may be developing several nested 1 and 2 structures across different degrees. It is still too early to say with certainty that all of these Waves 1 and 2 have been completed, as part of the current movement may still be developing or completing its Wave 2 correction.
If this count is correct, once the final correction is completed, the market should begin to reveal impulsive behavior again and continue higher. Such a move could become part of the development of Wave 3 at a larger degree.
Of course, the exact form of this advance cannot be determined yet. The market could develop a classic impulse, continue building nested structures, or see extensions develop within some of its internal waves. For this reason, at this stage, the behavior and personality of the next wave are more important than trying to predict its exact shape in advance.
On the other hand, the bearish scenario will become more relevant if the current advance fails to maintain its impulsive character and, after reaching higher levels, begins to develop into a larger sideways corrective structure.
That correction could take the form of a Flat in one of its variations, or develop into a more complex structure such as a Double Three / Double Zigzag, where two corrective patterns unfold through Waves W and Y.
For now, the bullish structure remains the main focus. However, before reaching a final conclusion, we need to allow the market to reveal its own intentions: whether it resumes its advance with clear impulsive behavior after the current correction, or transitions into a larger and more complex corrective structure.
In the end, my goal is not to choose between a bullish or bearish market.
I simply follow the structure that the market is building.
Patterns whisper. I listen.
— Mr. Nobody
CFDs on Crude Oil (WTI)
Jun 25
US Oil – 4H Elliott Wave Update
Long
Long
Short
Short
Long 
S&P 500 — Healthy Correction or Trend Reversal?Market Structure
The S&P 500 remains within a broader bullish trend despite the recent pullback from its record highs. Price continues to trade above previous breakout levels, suggesting that the current decline is more likely a corrective retracement than a confirmed reversal. Buyers still hold the broader structural advantage as long as key support remains intact.
Market Sentiment - Moderately Bullish
Short-term momentum has weakened following the recent rejection near the highs, but overall market sentiment remains cautiously constructive. The broader uptrend continues to favor buyers while price stays above major support.
Bullish Scenario
If buyers defend the current support area and reclaim 7,680, bullish momentum could strengthen again. A sustained move above 7,740 would increase the probability of another attempt toward the recent record highs around 7,800.
Bearish Scenario
If sellers break decisively below 7,600, the current correction could extend toward the next support zone near 7,500. Losing that level would increase the likelihood of a deeper pullback within the broader uptrend.
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Market Outlook
The recent decline appears to be a normal retracement following a strong rally rather than the start of a major bearish reversal. Buyers are testing an important demand zone, and the next directional move will likely depend on whether price can establish another higher low before challenging resistance again.
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Key Levels
First Resistance 7,680
Second Resistance 7,740
First Support 7,600
Second Support 7,500
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Future Scenarios
A sustained recovery above 7,680 would indicate that buyers are regaining control and could drive price back toward 7,740 and potentially retest the recent highs near 7,800.
However, if price fails to hold above 7,600, selling pressure may accelerate toward 7,500, increasing the probability of a broader corrective phase before the primary uptrend resumes.
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Event Risk
The S&P 500 remains highly sensitive to both macroeconomic data and Federal Reserve expectations.
Investors continue to monitor inflation trends, labor market data, Treasury yields, corporate earnings, and developments surrounding artificial intelligence spending across major technology companies. Changes in risk appetite and bond market expectations are likely to remain key drivers of short-term price action.
The next confirmed major macro event is the Federal Reserve meeting on September 15–16, 2026. Any adjustment in interest-rate expectations could influence equity valuations, investor sentiment, and overall market volatility.
Ultimately, price reaction matters more than the headlines. If positive news cannot push the S&P 500 back above 7,680–7,740, upside momentum may continue to fade. Conversely, if negative news fails to break 7,600–7,500, buyers could be preparing for another advance within the broader uptrend.
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Please share your view below:
Do you expect the S&P 500 to resume its primary uptrend from current support, or is a deeper correction becoming more likely?
More market structure and key level updates will be shared regularly. Dell's 289% surge faces its first real testDELL | 4H Technical Analysis — Sep 2, 2026
Dell reported Q2 after market close with revenue of $46.97B, beating the $44.92B consensus by a wide margin, and adjusted EPS of $7.04, crushing the $4.92 estimate. Net income nearly quadrupled YoY from $1.16B to $4.13B. Q3 guidance came in at $49B revenue and EPS of $6.50, both significantly above the $41.42B and $4.49 consensus, respectively. COO Jeff Clarke noted that customers requiring substantial CPU computing capacity to support AI and agent-based workloads are an accelerating trend. The stock fell 6.8% during the regular session before surging 8%+ in after-hours trading on the print, a sign that the market had already priced in weakness but the beat was too large to ignore.
DELL has surged 289.39% YTD, driven entirely by the AI infrastructure buildout cycle. However, the price has been consolidating within a wide 360–500 range for about three months, forming what appears to be a distribution or digestion zone after the near-vertical advance. Price is currently trading around 423, with EMA21 (451.57) above EMA78 (436.00), the bullish cross is intact, but both EMAs are flattening, reflecting the months-long range-bound structure.
The key structural observation is the range itself. Every rally to the 480–500 zone has been sold, and every dip toward 360–380 has been bought. This 140-point range has now contained price for nearly four months. RSI at 38.03 has reset to the lower end of the range, the same zone that has reliably preceded bounces back toward 460–500 on three prior occasions since June.
With the after-hours earnings reaction pushing price back toward 470+, the immediate question is whether the beat is strong enough to break the 500 ceiling or whether the range simply resets higher from the current EMA cluster.
Key levels to watch:
Resistance: 440 / 460–465 (EMA21 / post-earnings target) / 480–485 / 500 (range ceiling)
Support: 400 / 360 (range floor) / 325
Bear case: If the after-hours surge fades on the open and price fails to hold above 400, the price may retreat toward the 360 range. A close below 400 would be the first meaningful structural warning, with the 360 range floor as the next reference. At a post-289% YTD run, any moderation in AI server demand could trigger a sharper de-rating than the range implies.
Bull case: The Q2 beat, and Q3 guidance of $49B represent a clear fundamental re-acceleration. If the after-hours move holds above 440 on the open and price breaks above 480–485 on volume, the 500 range ceiling becomes the next test. A confirmed break above 500 would mark the end of the four-month consolidation and open a new leg higher, supported by COO commentary pointing to accelerating AI workload demand as a multi-quarter tailwind.
Bias is range-bound — after a 289% YTD run, the 360–500 consolidation zone has held for four months, and neither side has convincingly broken it. The earnings beat is strong enough to push price back toward the upper end of the range, but 500 needs to break on volume before the broader trend can resume.
DAX Pulls Back Into Support — Will Buyers Step In Again?Market Structure
DAX remains within a broader bullish structure despite the latest pullback. The recent decline appears to be a corrective move after failing to sustain a breakout above the recent highs. Price is now approaching an important support zone where buyers may attempt to regain control. Unless this support breaks decisively, the primary uptrend remains technically intact.
Market Sentiment - Moderately Bullish
Although short-term momentum has weakened following the recent rejection, the broader market structure continues to favor buyers. Market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic while price holds above major support.
Bullish Scenario
If buyers successfully defend the current support area and reclaim 26,150, bullish momentum could gradually return. A move above 26,350 would confirm renewed buying interest and expose the recent swing high near 26,600.
Bearish Scenario
If sellers continue pushing below 25,900, the correction may extend toward the next demand zone around 25,700. A decisive break beneath that level would weaken the broader bullish structure and increase the probability of a deeper retracement.
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Market Outlook
The recent decline looks more like profit-taking than a confirmed trend reversal. Buyers are now testing a key demand area, and the next directional move will likely depend on whether this support can generate another higher low. A recovery above nearby resistance would reinforce the broader bullish trend.
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Key Levels
First Resistance 26,150
Second Resistance 26,350
First Support 25,900
Second Support 25,700
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Future Scenarios
A sustained move above 26,150 would indicate that buyers are regaining control and could drive price back toward 26,350 and potentially 26,600.
However, if price fails to hold above 25,900, selling pressure could accelerate toward 25,700, increasing the risk of a deeper corrective phase before the broader uptrend resumes.
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Event Risk
DAX continues to react to both European and global macroeconomic developments.
Traders remain focused on European Central Bank policy expectations, Germany's economic outlook, Eurozone inflation data, corporate earnings, and movements in U.S. equity markets. Broader risk sentiment and bond yields are also likely to influence short-term price action.
The next confirmed major macro event is the Federal Reserve meeting on September 15–16, 2026. Any change in interest-rate expectations could affect global equity markets, including European indices, through shifts in risk appetite and capital flows.
Ultimately, price reaction is more important than the headlines. If positive news cannot lift DAX back above 26,150–26,350, sellers may retain near-term control. Conversely, if negative news fails to break 25,900–25,700, buyers may be preparing for another recovery.
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Please share your view below:
Do you expect DAX to rebound from the current support area, or is this correction likely to extend before buyers return?
More market structure and key level updates will be shared regularly. Japan 225 Breaks Support — Is Another Leg Lower Beginning?Market Structure
Japan 225 remains in a short-term bearish structure after failing to establish a sustained recovery. The recent rebound stalled below previous swing highs, and sellers have regained control by pushing price below the recent consolidation range. The sequence of lower highs and lower lows suggests bearish momentum remains dominant unless buyers reclaim key resistance.
Market Sentiment - Moderately Bearish
Market sentiment has weakened as repeated selling pressure continues to limit upside attempts. Buyers are beginning to defend nearby support, but stronger confirmation is still required before a meaningful recovery can develop.
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Market Outlook
The broader trend has shifted into a corrective phase following the sharp decline from the August highs. Price is now testing an important demand area where buyers may attempt to stabilize the market. Whether this becomes a temporary bounce or the beginning of a larger recovery will depend on price behavior around nearby resistance.
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Key Levels
First Resistance 64,900
Second Resistance 65,600
First Support 64,200
Second Support 63,500
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Future Scenarios
Bullish Scenario
If buyers successfully defend 64,200 and reclaim 64,900, bullish momentum could gradually improve and open the way toward 65,600, suggesting that the recent selloff was only a corrective move.
Bearish Scenario
If sellers break below 64,200, downside pressure may accelerate toward 63,500. A decisive break below that level would reinforce the current bearish structure and increase the probability of another leg lower.
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Event Risk
Japan 225 remains highly sensitive to both domestic and global macroeconomic developments.
Investors continue to monitor Bank of Japan policy expectations, the U.S. Federal Reserve interest-rate outlook, Treasury yields, USD/JPY movements, global technology stocks, and overall risk sentiment. As many major Japanese exporters benefit from currency weakness, fluctuations in the Japanese yen remain an important driver of index performance.
The next confirmed major macro event is the Federal Reserve meeting on September 15–16, 2026. Any shift in interest-rate expectations could influence global equity markets and Japanese stocks through changes in risk appetite and currency movements.
Ultimately, price reaction matters more than the headlines. If positive news cannot lift Japan 225 back above 64,900–65,600, sellers are likely to remain in control. Conversely, if negative news fails to break 64,200–63,500, the market may begin forming a stronger base for recovery.
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Please share your view below:
Do you expect Japan 225 to recover above 64,900 and regain bullish momentum, or will sellers extend the correction toward lower support?
More market structure and key level updates will be shared regularly. Nasdaq 100 — Can Buyers Prevent a Deeper Pullback?Market Structure
The Nasdaq 100 remains in a broad consolidation after failing to sustain its recent recovery. Price continues to trade below the major swing high and is forming lower highs in the short term, indicating that bullish momentum has weakened. However, the index is approaching an important demand zone where buyers may attempt to stabilize the market before another directional move develops.
Market Sentiment - Neutral to Slightly Bearish
Market sentiment has become more cautious as buyers lose momentum near resistance. Sellers currently have a slight short-term advantage, although no confirmed medium-term bearish trend has emerged yet.
Bullish Scenario
If buyers successfully defend the first support and reclaim the first resistance, the current pullback could develop into a higher low, opening the way toward the second resistance and restoring bullish momentum.
Bearish Scenario
If price breaks below the first support, selling pressure may accelerate toward the second support. A decisive breakdown would increase the probability of a broader corrective phase.
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Market Outlook
The Nasdaq 100 is currently correcting within a broader range rather than establishing a confirmed downtrend. The next meaningful move will likely depend on whether buyers can defend support and regain control above nearby resistance.
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Key Levels
First Resistance 29,500
Second Resistance 30,350
First Support 29,000
Second Support 28,500
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Future Scenarios
A sustained break above 29,500 would suggest buyers are regaining control and could trigger a move toward 30,350, reinforcing the broader recovery structure.
However, if price falls below 29,000, downside momentum may strengthen toward 28,500, increasing the likelihood of a deeper correction.
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Event Risk
The Nasdaq 100 remains highly sensitive to macroeconomic data and Federal Reserve policy expectations.
Investors continue to monitor inflation reports, labor-market data, Treasury yields, corporate earnings, AI-related investment trends, and guidance from major technology companies. Because the index has a heavy concentration of large-cap technology stocks, earnings and forward guidance from leading AI companies remain important market catalysts.
The next confirmed major macro event is the Federal Reserve meeting on September 15–16, 2026. Any change in interest-rate expectations could significantly affect equity valuations and overall risk sentiment.
Ultimately, market reaction matters more than the headlines themselves. If positive news cannot push the Nasdaq 100 above 29,500–30,350, bullish expectations may already be priced in. Conversely, if negative news fails to break 29,000–28,500, buyers may continue defending the broader consolidation structure.
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Please share your view below:
Do you expect the Nasdaq 100 to reclaim 30,350 and resume its broader recovery, or will sellers extend the current correction toward lower support?
More market structure and key level updates will be shared regularly. XPeng (XPEV) – Key decision levelNYSE:XPEV
XPeng is positioning itself as a leading global Physical AI company. Beyond electric vehicles, the company is developing three additional directions: robotaxis, IRON humanoid robots, and autonomous driving technologies.
I want to share my view on the technical picture of the stock, which is now approaching the most important point of its long-term cycle. Looking at history, back in 2003–2004 this range acted as strong resistance, which later, after breaking upward, turned into key support. Now we are seeing a classic mirror level playout.
A grid has been drawn from the all-time high to the low. The key level lands exactly at $10.53. This confirms that the $9.70–$10.53 range is the strongest zone where major decisions will be made. Price is currently drifting down toward the upper boundary of this area, and this is where I plan to assess the next moves for the coming months.
The technical slowdown near the zone is backed by strong fundamentals. On September 1, XPeng released August delivery data: 39,107 vehicles, up 4% year-over-year. Cumulative deliveries since the start of the year have exceeded 1.2 million units.
In August, the company received approval for remote testing of autonomous vehicles without a safety driver on designated roads in Guangzhou – a key step toward full commercial robotaxis.
On August 24, XPeng's robotics division announced it had raised over $900 million – the largest single round in China's embodied AI sector. The round was led by IDG Capital , with Tencent and Alibaba as strategic investors, and Gaorong Ventures also participating. The post-money valuation of the division reached $6.3 billion. IRON will enter mass production by the end of 2026, with commercial deliveries to customers starting in 2027. XPeng retains a controlling stake in the division.
Large capital is not rushing to exit the stock amid these transformations. The current drift toward support is happening on declining trading volumes – a clear signal of seller exhaustion. Additionally, around 6% of shares are currently shorted. If a confident buyback begins from this zone, sellers will be forced to cover their positions, technically accelerating the upside impulse.
Important context: on the day of the $900 million funding announcement, the stock fell 8.5% on volume 16.3 times above average. The market reacted to potential dilution rather than the substance of the deal. This divergence between market reaction and fundamental value is what creates the current technical opportunity.
The trading plan is as follows. The $9.70–$10.53 range is the main zone of interest for position building. If price holds within these boundaries and shows a reversal impulse above $12.00, a solid medium-term opportunity will open with a first target of $15.99 and a second target of $21.46. If the zone is broken to the downside and price closes below $9.70, the upside scenario would be completely invalidated.
This publication is for analytical purposes only and does not constitute individual investment advice. Share your thoughts in the comments and don't forget to support the idea with a like if you found the analysis useful! 
Long
XAUUSD | 15M Bearish Continuation SetupGold remains under bearish pressure on the 15-minute timeframe, with price continuing to respect the lower-high structure.
🔻 Market Structure: Bearish
📌 15M Supply Zone: 4,318–4,330
📌 SMT / OB Resistance: 4,368–4,375
📌 Major 15M OB: 4,378–4,388
🧠 Technical View
Price has been forming a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, maintaining the broader intraday bearish structure.
The highlighted 15M Supply Zone is the first area I would monitor for a potential bearish reaction. A deeper retracement into the SMT/OB region around 4,368–4,375 could provide additional confirmation if price shows rejection there.
If resistance continues to hold and bearish structure remains intact, the downside scenario points toward the 4,290–4,283 area shown on the chart. 🎯
⚠️ A sustained move above the 4,378–4,388 OB would weaken or invalidate this bearish scenario and would require reassessment.
🔑 Key Structure
Resistance → Supply → Rejection → Bearish continuation 📉
The setup is conditional on price reaction and confirmation; it should not be interpreted as a guaranteed outcome. Risk management remains essential. 🛡️📊
⚠️ Technical analysis for educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Short 
Ethereum — Can Buyers Defend the Uptrend?Market Structure
Ethereum remains within a broader bullish structure despite the recent pullback. Following an explosive breakout above 2,400, price entered a consolidation phase near the highs and is now retracing toward an important support area. While short-term momentum has weakened, the series of higher lows remains intact, suggesting the broader trend still favors buyers unless key support fails.
Market Sentiment - Moderately Bullish
Market sentiment remains cautiously constructive. Buyers are becoming more selective after the recent rally, while sellers are testing support levels. The current decline appears more like profit-taking than a confirmed trend reversal.
Bullish Scenario
If Ethereum stabilizes above the first support and breaks back above the first resistance, buying momentum could return quickly and expose the second resistance, reinforcing the broader uptrend.
Bearish Scenario
If sellers push price below the first support, downside pressure may accelerate toward the second support. Losing that level would suggest the current correction is becoming deeper than a normal pullback.
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Market Outlook
Ethereum is currently digesting its strong rally through a controlled correction. As long as price remains above the key support zone, the broader bullish structure remains valid. The next directional move will likely depend on whether buyers can reclaim the recent supply area.
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Key Levels
First Resistance 2,470
Second Resistance 2,530
First Support 2,400
Second Support 2,340
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Future Scenarios
A sustained move above 2,470 would indicate renewed buying strength and could open the way toward 2,530, confirming continuation of the broader uptrend.
However, if price breaks below 2,400, selling pressure could increase toward 2,340, where buyers would need to defend the structure to avoid a larger correction.
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Event Risk
Ethereum remains sensitive to both macroeconomic developments and crypto-specific catalysts.
Market participants continue to monitor Federal Reserve policy expectations, spot ETF flows, Ethereum network activity, Layer-2 adoption, institutional demand, staking participation, stablecoin liquidity, and regulatory developments.
The next confirmed major macro event is the Federal Reserve meeting on September 15–16, 2026. Changes in interest-rate expectations could affect overall market liquidity and investor appetite for digital assets.
Ultimately, price reaction matters more than the headlines themselves. If positive news cannot lift Ethereum above 2,470–2,530, bullish expectations may already be reflected in price. Conversely, if negative news fails to push price below 2,400–2,340, it would suggest buyers continue absorbing selling pressure, and the broader uptrend remains intact.
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Please share your view below:
Do you expect Ethereum to reclaim 2,530 and resume its primary uptrend, or will the current pullback extend into a deeper correction?
More market structure and key level updates will be shared regularly. Bitcoin is the Uptrend Preparing for the Next Move?Market Structure
Bitcoin remains in a broader bullish structure despite the recent pullback. After an explosive rally toward the 80,000 area, price has entered a healthy consolidation phase characterized by higher lows within the short-term range. Although upside momentum has slowed, the overall market structure continues to favor buyers as long as key support levels remain intact.
Market Sentiment - Moderately Bullish
Market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic. Buyers are still defending the recent support zone, but conviction is weakening near resistance as traders wait for the next major catalyst before committing to directional positions.
Bullish Scenario
If buyers reclaim the first resistance around 79,500, bullish momentum could accelerate toward the second resistance near 81,000. A successful breakout above that level would confirm trend continuation and increase the probability of fresh all-time-high attempts.
Bearish Scenario
If Bitcoin loses the first support around 77,000, selling pressure may increase toward the second support near 75,500. A break below that area would indicate that the current consolidation is evolving into a deeper correction.
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Market Outlook
Bitcoin continues to consolidate after its powerful breakout, suggesting that the market is digesting recent gains rather than reversing the broader trend. The current sideways structure favors continuation as long as support continues to hold. However, a decisive breakout from the current range will likely determine the next directional move.
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Key Levels
First Resistance 79,500
Second Resistance 81,000
First Support 77,000
Second Support 75,500
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Future Scenarios
A sustained move above 79,500 would confirm renewed buying interest and could open the door toward 81,000, reinforcing the broader bullish structure.
On the other hand, a break below 77,000 would expose 75,500 and signal that sellers have gained temporary control over short-term momentum.
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Event Risk
Bitcoin remains highly sensitive to both macroeconomic developments and cryptocurrency-specific news.
Market participants continue to monitor U.S. monetary policy, institutional ETF flows, Treasury yields, inflation data, stablecoin regulation, blockchain network activity, and institutional adoption trends. Any significant change in liquidity expectations could quickly influence Bitcoin volatility.
The next confirmed major macro event is the Federal Reserve meeting on September 15–16, 2026. Changes in interest-rate expectations may affect overall market liquidity and investor appetite for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Ultimately, price reaction matters more than the headlines themselves. If bullish news cannot lift Bitcoin above 79,500–81,000, upside momentum may already be largely priced in. Conversely, if bearish news fails to push price below 77,000–75,500, it could indicate that buyers continue to absorb selling pressure and the broader uptrend remains intact.
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Please share your view below:
Do you expect Bitcoin to break above 81,000 and resume its primary uptrend, or will the current consolidation develop into a deeper correction first?
More market structure and key level updates will be shared regularly.
