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ที่อัปเดต: DAX VSTOXX Pre-Market Panel
# DAX VSTOXX Pre-Market Panel
## What this indicator does
This panel displays a real-time pre-market dashboard for DAX40 intraday traders, built on a statistical correlation study between the **VSTOXX volatility index (FVS1!)** and the **DAX40 cash session result**.
The core insight: when VSTOXX falls during the trading session, the DAX tends to rise — and vice versa. This inverse relationship is statistically robust and forms the backbone of the day-type classification shown in the panel.
---
## Statistical Foundation
**Dataset:** 68 trading days | January–May 2026 | 1H session data
| Predictor | Correlation r | r² (variance explained) |
|---|---|---|
| VSTOXX Δ | -0.771 | 0.594 |
| Brent Δ% | -0.608 | 0.369 |
| DE 10Y Δ (bp) | -0.558 | 0.311 |
| Combined model | — | 0.693 |
**Regression formula:** `DAX Δ (pts) = -160 × VSTOXX Δ + 19`
**Combined model:** `DAX Δ = -160 × VSTOXX - 1.9 × DE10Y(bp) - 5.1 × Brent(%) + 19`
The p-value for the VSTOXX/DAX relationship is `1.47e-14` — statistically near-certain, not a coincidence.
---
## VSTOXX Delta Thresholds
All thresholds are data-derived from the historical dataset, not arbitrary:
| VSTOXX Session Δ | Bull% | Range% | Bear% | Avg DAX Δ | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| < -1.50 | 100% | 0% | 0% | +516 pts | STRONG BULL |
| -1.50 to -0.70 | 33% | 67% | 0% | +102 pts | BULL / RANGE |
| -0.70 to -0.35 | 47% | 47% | 6% | +156 pts | BULL BIAS |
| ± 0.35 (neutral) | 27% | 65% | 8% | +23 pts | RANGE |
| +0.35 to +0.70 | 8% | 69% | 23% | -51 pts | RANGE / BEAR BIAS |
| +0.70 to +1.50 | 0% | 40% | 60% | -180 pts | BEAR TREND |
| > +1.50 | 0% | 14% | 86% | -340 pts | STRONG BEAR |
---
## Panel Sections Explained
### PRE-MARKET (available from 08:00 CET)
**VSTOXX @ 08:00**
The absolute VSTOXX level at Frankfurt pre-open. Determines the volatility class and expected session range:
- < 20 → Low volatility, expected range ~239 pts
- 20–25 → Medium, expected range ~342 pts
- 25–35 → High, expected range ~500+ pts
- > 35 → Extreme, expected range ~700+ pts
**Expected session range**
Historical average DAX high–low range (09:00–17:30 XETR cash) for the given VSTOXX level class. This is a pre-market estimate, not a live calculation.
**Frankfurt delta (08:00 → 09:00)**
VSTOXX movement during the Frankfurt pre-open hour. This is the **earliest directional signal** (r² = 0.22). A drop of more than 0.30 points suggests bull bias; a rise above 0.30 suggests bear bias. Updates live during the 08:00–09:00 window, then freezes.
**Daily delta (prev close → now)**
Total VSTOXX change since yesterday's 17:00 close. This is what your watchlist/broker dashboard shows as the daily percentage change. Gives overnight context.
### SESSION (available from 09:00 CET)
**VSTOXX Session delta (09:00 → now)**
The primary predictor (r² = 0.594). Measures VSTOXX movement from the cash market open. Updates every bar throughout the session.
**DAGTYPE (Day type)**
Automatic classification based on the session delta and the calibrated thresholds:
`STRONG BULL / BULL TREND / BULL BIAS / RANGE / BEAR BIAS / BEAR TREND / STRONG BEAR`
Green = bullish, Red = bearish, Yellow = range/neutral.
**DAX Verwachting (DAX Expected)**
Regression-based point estimate for the DAX session result (open → close).
Formula: `DAX Δ = -160 × (VSTOXX session Δ) + 19`
**1e uur DAX (First hour DAX)**
DAX price change from session open (09:00) to 10:00 close. Historical accuracy: **73% correct** directional match with the full session close. Available from 10:00 CET.
### MACRO (available from 08:00 CET)
Two supplementary macro inputs that add predictive power on top of VSTOXX:
**Brent Δ% (08:00 → now)**
Brent crude oil percentage change since 08:00. Rising oil = inflationary pressure = bearish for DAX (r² = 0.37). Green = oil falling = DAX bullish context.
**DE 10Y Δ bp (08:00 → now)**
German 10-year Bund yield change in basis points since 08:00. Rising yields = higher discount rates = bearish for DAX valuations (r² = 0.31). Green = yields falling = DAX bullish context.
---
## Color Logic (consistent throughout)
| Color | Meaning |
|---|---|
| 🟢 Green | Bullish for DAX |
| 🔴 Red | Bearish for DAX |
| 🟡 Yellow | Neutral / Range |
| Grey | No data yet |
---
## Setup Instructions
**Required chart:** Germany 40 Cash CFD (IG Markets or equivalent) — **15M timeframe**
> ⚠️ This indicator **must be applied to a 24/7 CFD chart** (not the XETR cash chart). The XETR cash market only opens at 09:00 CET, which means the 08:00 VSTOXX capture is impossible on that chart. The CFD chart runs around the clock, allowing pre-market data to be captured correctly.
**Data sources pulled automatically:**
- `EUREX:FVS1!` — VSTOXX continuous futures
- `TVC:DE10Y` — German 10Y Bund yield
- `OANDA:UKOIL_USD` — Brent crude CFD (real-time, no 15-minute delay)
**Settings (all adjustable in indicator inputs):**
- VSTOXX symbol (default: `EUREX:FVS1!`)
- DE 10Y symbol (default: `TVC:DE10Y`)
- Brent symbol (default: `OANDA:UKOIL_USD`)
- Timezone (default: `Europe/Amsterdam`)
- Frankfurt threshold: 0.30 (first directional signal)
- Bias threshold: 0.35
- Trend threshold: 0.70
- Strong signal threshold: 1.50
- Table position: top-right, top-left, bottom-right, bottom-left
- Background color: on/off
---
## How to Use in Practice
**Before 08:00 CET:** Panel shows "waiting" — no actionable data yet.
**08:00 CET — Frankfurt opens:**
- Check VSTOXX @ 08:00 level → determine volatility class and expected range
- Monitor Frankfurt delta as it builds live → first directional hint
- Check Brent and DE 10Y direction for macro context
**08:00–09:00 CET — Frankfurt hour:**
- If Frankfurt delta > +0.30: bear bias forming
- If Frankfurt delta < -0.30: bull bias forming
- If within ±0.30: neutral, wait for session confirmation
**09:00–09:15 CET — Observation window (no trades):**
- Watch opening bar direction
- Does it confirm or contradict the Frankfurt signal?
**09:15+ CET — Session active:**
- Session delta starts building → day type classification activates
- DAX Expected updates with every VSTOXX tick
- Strong signals (|delta| > 1.50) have 85–100% historical precision
**10:00 CET:**
- First hour result confirms or rejects the pre-market bias
- 73% historical directional accuracy with full session close
---
## Alerts
Four built-in alerts:
1. **Frankfurt BULL signal** — VSTOXX Frankfurt delta crosses below threshold
2. **Frankfurt BEAR signal** — VSTOXX Frankfurt delta crosses above threshold
3. **BULL TREND confirmed** — Session delta crosses into BULL TREND / STRONG BULL zone
4. **BEAR TREND confirmed** — Session delta crosses into BEAR TREND / STRONG BEAR zone
---
## Important Notes
- **Gray zone (±0.35 neutral):** Within this range, VSTOXX alone is insufficient. Use Brent and DE 10Y for additional context. When in doubt, classify as RANGE and trade selectively or not at all.
- **Regression formula accuracy:** r² = 0.594 means VSTOXX explains ~59% of daily DAX variance. The remaining 41% is driven by news, earnings, geopolitics, and other factors not captured in this model.
- **Lead-lag is zero:** Statistical testing confirms that yesterday's VSTOXX, S&P500, or VIX has no meaningful predictive power for today's DAX session. Markets discount overnight information immediately at the open.
- **Recalibration:** Thresholds are based on 68 trading days (January–May 2026). Recalibrate monthly by re-running the correlation analysis on fresh data to ensure thresholds remain accurate as market regimes evolve.
---
## Disclaimer
This indicator is a statistical tool based on historical data. Past correlations do not guarantee future results. Always use proper risk management. This is not financial advice.
## What this indicator does
This panel displays a real-time pre-market dashboard for DAX40 intraday traders, built on a statistical correlation study between the **VSTOXX volatility index (FVS1!)** and the **DAX40 cash session result**.
The core insight: when VSTOXX falls during the trading session, the DAX tends to rise — and vice versa. This inverse relationship is statistically robust and forms the backbone of the day-type classification shown in the panel.
---
## Statistical Foundation
**Dataset:** 68 trading days | January–May 2026 | 1H session data
| Predictor | Correlation r | r² (variance explained) |
|---|---|---|
| VSTOXX Δ | -0.771 | 0.594 |
| Brent Δ% | -0.608 | 0.369 |
| DE 10Y Δ (bp) | -0.558 | 0.311 |
| Combined model | — | 0.693 |
**Regression formula:** `DAX Δ (pts) = -160 × VSTOXX Δ + 19`
**Combined model:** `DAX Δ = -160 × VSTOXX - 1.9 × DE10Y(bp) - 5.1 × Brent(%) + 19`
The p-value for the VSTOXX/DAX relationship is `1.47e-14` — statistically near-certain, not a coincidence.
---
## VSTOXX Delta Thresholds
All thresholds are data-derived from the historical dataset, not arbitrary:
| VSTOXX Session Δ | Bull% | Range% | Bear% | Avg DAX Δ | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| < -1.50 | 100% | 0% | 0% | +516 pts | STRONG BULL |
| -1.50 to -0.70 | 33% | 67% | 0% | +102 pts | BULL / RANGE |
| -0.70 to -0.35 | 47% | 47% | 6% | +156 pts | BULL BIAS |
| ± 0.35 (neutral) | 27% | 65% | 8% | +23 pts | RANGE |
| +0.35 to +0.70 | 8% | 69% | 23% | -51 pts | RANGE / BEAR BIAS |
| +0.70 to +1.50 | 0% | 40% | 60% | -180 pts | BEAR TREND |
| > +1.50 | 0% | 14% | 86% | -340 pts | STRONG BEAR |
---
## Panel Sections Explained
### PRE-MARKET (available from 08:00 CET)
**VSTOXX @ 08:00**
The absolute VSTOXX level at Frankfurt pre-open. Determines the volatility class and expected session range:
- < 20 → Low volatility, expected range ~239 pts
- 20–25 → Medium, expected range ~342 pts
- 25–35 → High, expected range ~500+ pts
- > 35 → Extreme, expected range ~700+ pts
**Expected session range**
Historical average DAX high–low range (09:00–17:30 XETR cash) for the given VSTOXX level class. This is a pre-market estimate, not a live calculation.
**Frankfurt delta (08:00 → 09:00)**
VSTOXX movement during the Frankfurt pre-open hour. This is the **earliest directional signal** (r² = 0.22). A drop of more than 0.30 points suggests bull bias; a rise above 0.30 suggests bear bias. Updates live during the 08:00–09:00 window, then freezes.
**Daily delta (prev close → now)**
Total VSTOXX change since yesterday's 17:00 close. This is what your watchlist/broker dashboard shows as the daily percentage change. Gives overnight context.
### SESSION (available from 09:00 CET)
**VSTOXX Session delta (09:00 → now)**
The primary predictor (r² = 0.594). Measures VSTOXX movement from the cash market open. Updates every bar throughout the session.
**DAGTYPE (Day type)**
Automatic classification based on the session delta and the calibrated thresholds:
`STRONG BULL / BULL TREND / BULL BIAS / RANGE / BEAR BIAS / BEAR TREND / STRONG BEAR`
Green = bullish, Red = bearish, Yellow = range/neutral.
**DAX Verwachting (DAX Expected)**
Regression-based point estimate for the DAX session result (open → close).
Formula: `DAX Δ = -160 × (VSTOXX session Δ) + 19`
**1e uur DAX (First hour DAX)**
DAX price change from session open (09:00) to 10:00 close. Historical accuracy: **73% correct** directional match with the full session close. Available from 10:00 CET.
### MACRO (available from 08:00 CET)
Two supplementary macro inputs that add predictive power on top of VSTOXX:
**Brent Δ% (08:00 → now)**
Brent crude oil percentage change since 08:00. Rising oil = inflationary pressure = bearish for DAX (r² = 0.37). Green = oil falling = DAX bullish context.
**DE 10Y Δ bp (08:00 → now)**
German 10-year Bund yield change in basis points since 08:00. Rising yields = higher discount rates = bearish for DAX valuations (r² = 0.31). Green = yields falling = DAX bullish context.
---
## Color Logic (consistent throughout)
| Color | Meaning |
|---|---|
| 🟢 Green | Bullish for DAX |
| 🔴 Red | Bearish for DAX |
| 🟡 Yellow | Neutral / Range |
| Grey | No data yet |
---
## Setup Instructions
**Required chart:** Germany 40 Cash CFD (IG Markets or equivalent) — **15M timeframe**
> ⚠️ This indicator **must be applied to a 24/7 CFD chart** (not the XETR cash chart). The XETR cash market only opens at 09:00 CET, which means the 08:00 VSTOXX capture is impossible on that chart. The CFD chart runs around the clock, allowing pre-market data to be captured correctly.
**Data sources pulled automatically:**
- `EUREX:FVS1!` — VSTOXX continuous futures
- `TVC:DE10Y` — German 10Y Bund yield
- `OANDA:UKOIL_USD` — Brent crude CFD (real-time, no 15-minute delay)
**Settings (all adjustable in indicator inputs):**
- VSTOXX symbol (default: `EUREX:FVS1!`)
- DE 10Y symbol (default: `TVC:DE10Y`)
- Brent symbol (default: `OANDA:UKOIL_USD`)
- Timezone (default: `Europe/Amsterdam`)
- Frankfurt threshold: 0.30 (first directional signal)
- Bias threshold: 0.35
- Trend threshold: 0.70
- Strong signal threshold: 1.50
- Table position: top-right, top-left, bottom-right, bottom-left
- Background color: on/off
---
## How to Use in Practice
**Before 08:00 CET:** Panel shows "waiting" — no actionable data yet.
**08:00 CET — Frankfurt opens:**
- Check VSTOXX @ 08:00 level → determine volatility class and expected range
- Monitor Frankfurt delta as it builds live → first directional hint
- Check Brent and DE 10Y direction for macro context
**08:00–09:00 CET — Frankfurt hour:**
- If Frankfurt delta > +0.30: bear bias forming
- If Frankfurt delta < -0.30: bull bias forming
- If within ±0.30: neutral, wait for session confirmation
**09:00–09:15 CET — Observation window (no trades):**
- Watch opening bar direction
- Does it confirm or contradict the Frankfurt signal?
**09:15+ CET — Session active:**
- Session delta starts building → day type classification activates
- DAX Expected updates with every VSTOXX tick
- Strong signals (|delta| > 1.50) have 85–100% historical precision
**10:00 CET:**
- First hour result confirms or rejects the pre-market bias
- 73% historical directional accuracy with full session close
---
## Alerts
Four built-in alerts:
1. **Frankfurt BULL signal** — VSTOXX Frankfurt delta crosses below threshold
2. **Frankfurt BEAR signal** — VSTOXX Frankfurt delta crosses above threshold
3. **BULL TREND confirmed** — Session delta crosses into BULL TREND / STRONG BULL zone
4. **BEAR TREND confirmed** — Session delta crosses into BEAR TREND / STRONG BEAR zone
---
## Important Notes
- **Gray zone (±0.35 neutral):** Within this range, VSTOXX alone is insufficient. Use Brent and DE 10Y for additional context. When in doubt, classify as RANGE and trade selectively or not at all.
- **Regression formula accuracy:** r² = 0.594 means VSTOXX explains ~59% of daily DAX variance. The remaining 41% is driven by news, earnings, geopolitics, and other factors not captured in this model.
- **Lead-lag is zero:** Statistical testing confirms that yesterday's VSTOXX, S&P500, or VIX has no meaningful predictive power for today's DAX session. Markets discount overnight information immediately at the open.
- **Recalibration:** Thresholds are based on 68 trading days (January–May 2026). Recalibrate monthly by re-running the correlation analysis on fresh data to ensure thresholds remain accurate as market regimes evolve.
---
## Disclaimer
This indicator is a statistical tool based on historical data. Past correlations do not guarantee future results. Always use proper risk management. This is not financial advice.
Release Note
Update — May 2026New in this version:
Macro section added (Brent & DE 10Y)
Two additional macro predictors are now live in the panel alongside VSTOXX. Statistical research on 68 trading days shows Brent crude (r²=0.37) and German 10Y Bund yield (r²=0.31) add meaningful context on top of VSTOXX alone. Combined model R²=0.693 vs 0.594 for VSTOXX only. Green = bullish for DAX, red = bearish.
Live session range (replaces static estimate)
The expected day range now updates dynamically throughout the session. Pre-09:00 it uses the VSTOXX level at 08:00 (formula: 28.6 × level − 281). From 09:00 onwards it switches to the session delta formula (189.4 × |delta| + 199, r²=0.495). Validated on May 7: model gave 369 pts, actual was 389 pts.
Live week range tracker
New row showing the current week's high-low range with color-coded context: green (<600 pts, room to expand), yellow (600–900 pts, normal), orange (900–1200 pts, elevated), red (>1200 pts, expect consolidation/pullback). Based on 18-week historical average of 925 pts.
Settings update required
Three new symbol inputs have been added: DE 10Y (default: TVC:DE10Y) and Brent (default: OANDA:UKOIL_USD). Please verify these in your indicator settings after updating.
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ด้วยเจตนารมณ์หลักของ TradingView ผู้สร้างสคริปต์นี้ได้ทำให้เป็นโอเพนซอร์ส เพื่อให้เทรดเดอร์สามารถตรวจสอบและยืนยันฟังก์ชันการทำงานของมันได้ ขอชื่นชมผู้เขียน! แม้ว่าคุณจะใช้งานได้ฟรี แต่โปรดจำไว้ว่าการเผยแพร่โค้ดซ้ำจะต้องเป็นไปตาม กฎระเบียบการใช้งาน ของเรา
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน