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Livermore Trend Key Pro [LevelUp]

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Livermore Trend Key Pro gives a clear, rules-based answer to two questions: what is the trend, and what price changes it? It brings Jesse Livermore's Market Key method from How to Trade in Stocks (1940) to modern charts as a clean, at-a-glance display, with an optional table that rebuilds his six-column ledger.

🔹—— What Makes This Livermore Indicator Unique ——🔹

▪ The full Market Key. An original implementation that tracks all six of Livermore's columns, including Secondary Rally and Secondary Reaction, using his rules for swings, extensions and pivotal points. No fixed lookback: every decision comes from the recorded swings.
▪ Scaled for modern prices. Livermore's fixed 6- and 3-point thresholds are replaced with volatility-scaled values (ATR), keeping his 2:1 swing-to-confirmation ratio, so the method works the same on a $20 stock or a $1,000 stock.
▪ Fewer false trend change signals. Many trend tools flip direction on every pullback. Here a pullback is a pause, not a reversal, marked with a "P" label. A "U" (new uptrend) or "D" (new downtrend) label appears only when the trend actually changes direction, and a pause that resumes the trend adds no new label.
▪ Key level: the price that changes the trend. One line shows the next closing price that would confirm a change in trend direction or end a pause. It is found by following Livermore's rules forward from the current state to the next trend change, not by a fixed offset or lookback.
▪ True to Livermore's method. Livermore made his decisions on the close, not on intraday moves. This indicator does the same: by default, everything updates only when the bar closes, so nothing repaints. An optional live view (Allow Repainting) lets the shading and key level follow the current bar's price, while the U / D / P labels, ledger and trend alerts still wait for the close.
▪ Livermore's ledger, rebuilt. An optional table recreates his six-column record, with dated entries and pivotal points highlighted, so every trend state can be traced back to his rules. Pivotal lines mark the same prices on the chart, and the Pine Screener and alerts let you apply the method across a watchlist.

🔹—— How It Works ——🔹

Livermore sorted price action into six columns: Upward Trend, Downward Trend, Natural Rally, Natural Reaction, Secondary Rally and Secondary Reaction. Two thresholds move price between them:

▪ Swing (S) — a move big enough to count. Livermore used about six points. A smaller move against the trend is noise and is ignored.
▪ Confirmation (C) — the margin needed to decisively break a pivotal point. Livermore used about three points, half a swing. It stops a close a few cents past a pivot from flipping the trend. A close beyond the last uptrend high or downtrend low needs no margin.

Six points was a large move on a $40 stock in 1940 but is noise on a $1,000 stock today, so both are scaled to volatility using the Average True Range (ATR):
▪ S = 2 × ATR at Medium sensitivity (3 × at Low, 1.5 × at High). C = S ÷ 2, keeping Livermore's 2:1 ratio. Choose the sensitivity in Settings › Engine Settings › Sensitivity.
▪ Example: a $100 stock with an ATR of $5 has S = $10 and C = $5.

On every closed bar, using the closing price, the indicator checks in order: does the close move to a trend or Natural column; is it a new high or low for the current column; has price moved a full swing against the column. If none apply, nothing changes. A large move can cross more than one column on a single bar, so a gap that breaks a trend is recognized immediately.

The engine starts once 20 bars are available and records its first trend when price moves one swing from its running low or high. Bars before that are not shaded.

🔹—— Reading the Chart ——🔹

▪ Green = uptrend, red = downtrend, yellow = pause.
▪ U / D labels mark a change of trend direction.
▪ P labels mark the bar where a trend pauses.

The pause
A pause means the trend is on hold. It is not a reversal. It starts when price closes one full swing against the trend (below the uptrend's highest close, or above the downtrend's lowest close). It ends in one of two ways:
▪ The trend resumes: the color returns to the trend color, with no new U or D label, because the trend never reversed.
▪ The trend reverses: a U or D label appears.

A pause after an uptrend means the trend is no longer confirming. It is a time to reassess, not a sell signal on its own; many pauses resolve back into the trend. A pause can last a long time when the reference points from earlier swings are far away or missing, for example on recent IPOs or after long one-way moves. This is by design, as in Livermore's rules.

Example: on the DELL daily chart below, a U label marks the start of the uptrend. Over seven months the trend paused four times, and each time it resumed with no new U label and went on to new highs. In a healthy uptrend, pauses are rests, not reversals.
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🔹—— The Key Level ——🔹

The key level is the one closing price that would change what the indicator shows next. Its label tells you what that close would do:
▪ In an uptrend — Downtrend: a close at or below it turns the trend down.
▪ In a downtrend — Uptrend: a close at or above it turns the trend up.
▪ In a pause — Uptrend Resumes or Downtrend Resumes: a close beyond it puts the prior trend back in force.

How it is set
The indicator follows Livermore's rules from the current state to the next trend change and finds the closing price that satisfies every step. In an uptrend, the close must be a full swing below the highest close and break support: below the last downtrend low, or at least C below the latest pivotal low. Usually the pivotal low decides it.
Example (S = 10, C = 5): uptrend high 130, latest pivotal low 100. The Downtrend level is 95 (100 − 5). If the last downtrend low were 97, a close below 97 would come first, so the level would be 97.

How to use it
▪ It is close-based. An intraday move through the line does not change the trend; only a close does.
▪ The distance from price to the line is the room the trend has. Use it to define risk before you enter: if it is too wide for you, use your own tighter stop and treat the line as the point where the trend thesis is wrong.
▪ It is recalculated every bar as volatility changes, so it can shift slightly. In an uptrend it tends to step up as higher pivotal lows are set.
▪ It is the level where the verdict changes, not a prediction or a sell signal on its own.

🔹—— Pivotal Lines ——🔹

Pivotal points are the last price of a swing, the prices Livermore underlined in his ledger. Orange lines mark the tops of rallies and blue lines the bottoms of pullbacks. Each line is fixed once set, so the chart shows a history of swings, while the key level is a single, current price at the right edge.

▪ A close above the latest orange line by C confirms the rally has resumed. A pullback that holds above the latest blue line, followed by a break of the orange line, is the sequence Livermore watched for.
▪ A close below the latest blue line by C says the pullback is turning into something more serious. In an uptrend the Downtrend key level is usually that blue line minus C. Turn on "Extend Most Recent Pivotal Low" to see it next to current price.
▪ Pivotal points often act as support and resistance when price returns to them, and a clearly broken level can switch roles. Treat them as areas, not exact prices; they are drawn at closes, so highs and lows can poke through.
▪ A line starts at the bar where the swing ended, but the color changes later, when price has moved far enough to confirm the swing is over. The color tells you what is confirmed; the line tells you where the swing turned.

Example: a pullback held at a blue line, the next rally set a new top (orange line, P label), and price pulled back to the latest blue line, dipped briefly below it and went on to new highs. The Downtrend key level sat below that line the whole time, so the trend paused but never turned down.
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🔹—— Ledger Table ——🔹

Rebuilds Livermore's six-column ledger. Read it top to bottom; the newest entry is at the bottom.
▪ A row is added when the close extends the current column or moves to a new column. Other bars are skipped, so the dates have gaps, as in his hand-kept ledger.
▪ Green entries are the Uptrend column, red the Downtrend column, gray the four pause columns. Highlighted cells are pivotal points.
▪ The title row shows the symbol, the current column and the swing size (S).

Example: on the DELL chart below, the 494.51 high on Aug 13 is a pivotal point (orange line). A close a full swing lower on Aug 24 starts a pause (P label, Nat React column). The 425.00 low on Sep 1 is the next pivotal point (blue line), and on Sep 2 the entries return to the Uptrend column with no new U label.
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🔹—— Settings ——🔹

▪ Chart: trend shading and its Up / Down / Pause colors, U / D labels, P labels, and the key level line and its style. Each can be turned on or off; alerts work either way.
▪ Livermore's Record: pivotal point lines, Extend Most Recent Pivotal Low, line length, style and colors.
▪ Ledger Table: show or hide the table, its position, rows, text size and colors.
▪ Engine Settings: Sensitivity — Low (3 ATR) for fewer, larger swings; Medium (2 ATR, default) for most growth stocks; High (1.5 ATR) for more, smaller swings. Allow Repainting — off by default; see below.
▪ Screener: Match Pine Screener (last 500 bars) — off by default; see Screening Limitations.

🔹—— Allow Repainting: On vs Off ——🔹

Off (default) — confirmed on close
▪ Chart: the shading, key level, U / D / P labels and ledger all update together when the bar closes. The current bar keeps the previous bar's state until it closes.
▪ Screener: results are based on the last closed bar. A screen run at 10 am and one run at 3 pm return the same list, and the screener's conditions agree with each other. Results can still differ from the chart on some stocks because the screener only sees 500 bars (see Screening Limitations).
▪ Alerts: every alert fires on the bar close.

On — live view
▪ Chart: the shading and key level follow the current bar's latest price, so you see a break as it happens. The color can change back before the close. Labels and the ledger still wait for the close, so a color change with no label means the turn is not confirmed yet.
▪ Screener: Trend Is and Turned Green / Red use the latest price and can change during the day. Trend Turned Up / Down and Trend Paused still wait for the close.
▪ Alerts: see Early Warning Alerts below.

U / D / P labels, the trend event alerts and the ledger never repaint, even with Allow Repainting on.

🔹—— Screening ——🔹

Use the indicator in TradingView's Pine Screener to scan a watchlist:
▪ Trend Is Up / Down / Paused — the current color.
▪ Turned Green / Turned Red — the color changed on the latest bar: a new trend, or a trend resuming after a pause.
▪ Trend Turned Up / Down, Trend Paused — the trend events, matching the U, D and P labels.

🔹—— Screening Limitations ——🔹

TradingView's Pine Screener calculates only the most recent 500 bars of each stock, while your chart uses the full price history. Livermore's method builds on its own record of earlier swings, such as the last trend high and the pivotal points. When those come from more than 500 bars back, the screener can reach a different trend state than the chart.

▪ In testing on a 100-stock watchlist, about 1 in 10 screens showed a different trend state than the chart for at least one stock. Most stocks always matched; a few disagreed often.
▪ This affects every screener condition and does not depend on the repainting setting.
▪ On intraday timeframes, 500 bars covers only a few trading days, so differences are more likely.

What to do
▪ Treat screener results as a shortlist and confirm each stock on the chart. The chart is the more complete reading.
▪ To see exactly what the screener saw, turn on Settings › Screener › Match Pine Screener (last 500 bars). The chart then recalculates from the same 500 bars, and bars before them are not shaded.

🔹—— Alerts ——🔹

Confirmed Alerts (closing prices)
With Allow Repainting off (the default), every alert fires once, on the bar close where it happens.
▪ Trend Turned Up / Trend Turned Down — a new trend has started (U / D label).
▪ Trend Paused — a trend has gone on hold (P label).
▪ Turned Green / Turned Red — the color changed: a new trend or a trend resuming.
▪ Trend Is Up / Down / Paused — true on every bar in that state; mainly for screening.

How to set them up:
▪ One stock: create an alert on the indicator and choose a condition.
▪ A watchlist: create a watchlist alert with the indicator and choose a condition. It fires for each stock where it happens.
▪ All trend events in one alert: choose "Any alert() function call". It fires on Trend Turned Up, Trend Turned Down and Trend Paused, and each message says which event happened and at what price.

Early Warning Alerts (during the bar)
Use these to know a trend change may be happening before the bar closes. They are a heads-up, not a confirmed signal: the move is confirmed only if the bar closes beyond the key level.
▪ One stock: set a regular TradingView price alert at the key level price. It fires as soon as price crosses it. The key level shifts slightly from bar to bar, so the alert may need updating.
▪ A watchlist: on the chart, turn on Settings › Engine Settings › Allow Repainting. Then create a watchlist alert on Turned Green or Turned Red with the trigger set to "Once Per Bar". You can turn Allow Repainting back off on your chart afterward; an alert keeps the settings it was created with. It fires during the bar for any stock whose live price crosses its key level, and can fire on a move that reverses before the close.

🔹—— Timeframes ——🔹

Livermore kept daily records, and daily is the native timeframe. Weekly and intraday charts are supported as adaptations, not part of Livermore's original method: the rules are the same, and S and C come from the ATR of the chart's own timeframe.

Daily — intermediate-term trends and pauses that resolve back into the trend.
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Weekly — filters out short-term noise and highlights the primary trend. Swings are larger and pivotal points are set less often, so pauses can last longer.
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Intraday
▪ Expect more swings and more U, D and P labels. Low sensitivity gives fewer, larger swings.
▪ True range includes the gap from the previous close, so a large opening gap can lift the ATR for a while.
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🔹—— Best Practices ——🔹

▪ Trade in the direction of the trend, which Livermore called the "line of least resistance."
▪ Treat a pause as a time to reassess, such as taking partial profits or tightening a stop.
▪ Use the key level to define risk before entering a trade.
▪ Watch the pivotal lines for support and resistance when price returns to them.
▪ Confirm the trend on both daily and weekly charts.
▪ Favor stocks with strong relative strength, those outperforming the market.
▪ Focus on companies with accelerating earnings and sales growth.
▪ Be patient: Livermore made his biggest profits by sitting tight through strong trends.

Credit to Jesse Livermore, How to Trade in Stocks (1940), for the Market Key method.
Release Note
▪ Add percent change and ATR to Key Trend Line tooltip.
Release Note
Version 1.1

What's New

▪ Show Trend as Colored Bars/Candles
Color your price bars or candles by Livermore's trend: green for an uptrend, red for a downtrend and yellow for a pause. Each state has its own color setting, so you can match your chart theme. Use it with the background shading or turn the shading off for a cleaner chart, and see at a glance where the trend stands on every bar.
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