AUD/USD 
AUDUSD began the new trading week with a moderate bearish gap, retreating further from the two-and-a-half-week high of 0.6970 reached last Friday.
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✅ Macro-Geopolitics: IRGC Completely Blockades the Strait of Hormuz & Triggers Fed Inflation Alarm
- The main factors underlying the US Dollar's tactical rebound and triggering the Aussie's downward correction stem from critical developments in the global energy corridor:
- Kinetic Warfare & Waterway Closure: After the US military launched a massive airstrike, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) retaliated by raining missiles on US military bases in the Gulf.
- Fed Interest Rate Speculation Spikes (Now 90%): The complete blockade of this strategic waterway immediately triggered a sharp rally in crude oil prices due to concerns about global supply disruptions. Expectations of a secondary, energy-driven inflation spiral have soared.
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✅ Daily Chart Technical Analysis
Despite suffering a daily bearish gap, the Aussie's long-term technical setup still suggests a healthy structural defence from the June multi-month trough:
- Macro Positive Trend Support: The pair is impressively holding comfortably above 0.6878 and 0.6849 (calculated from the November 2025–May 2026 rally).
- Buyer Momentum Barrier: On the flip side, the RSI (14) is stuck around 42, reflecting a still-tentative and fragile momentum improvement. The Aussie's repeated failure to break and hold above 0.6951 confirms the presence of daily supply limiting gains ahead of the US superdata release.
- Sustained strength above 0.6951 is needed to pave the way for a rally towards 0.7077.
AUDUSD began the new trading week with a moderate bearish gap, retreating further from the two-and-a-half-week high of 0.6970 reached last Friday.--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
✅ Macro-Geopolitics: IRGC Completely Blockades the Strait of Hormuz & Triggers Fed Inflation Alarm
- The main factors underlying the US Dollar's tactical rebound and triggering the Aussie's downward correction stem from critical developments in the global energy corridor:
- Kinetic Warfare & Waterway Closure: After the US military launched a massive airstrike, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) retaliated by raining missiles on US military bases in the Gulf.
- Fed Interest Rate Speculation Spikes (Now 90%): The complete blockade of this strategic waterway immediately triggered a sharp rally in crude oil prices due to concerns about global supply disruptions. Expectations of a secondary, energy-driven inflation spiral have soared.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
✅ Daily Chart Technical Analysis
Despite suffering a daily bearish gap, the Aussie's long-term technical setup still suggests a healthy structural defence from the June multi-month trough:
- Macro Positive Trend Support: The pair is impressively holding comfortably above 0.6878 and 0.6849 (calculated from the November 2025–May 2026 rally).
- Buyer Momentum Barrier: On the flip side, the RSI (14) is stuck around 42, reflecting a still-tentative and fragile momentum improvement. The Aussie's repeated failure to break and hold above 0.6951 confirms the presence of daily supply limiting gains ahead of the US superdata release.
- Sustained strength above 0.6951 is needed to pave the way for a rally towards 0.7077.
İlgili yayınlar
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, alım satım veya diğer türden tavsiye veya öneriler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Koşulları bölümünde daha fazlasını okuyun.
İlgili yayınlar
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, alım satım veya diğer türden tavsiye veya öneriler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Koşulları bölümünde daha fazlasını okuyun.