AUD/USD is the key pair to watch right now ahead of critical US data releases, with Non-Farm Payrolls today and CPI on Friday. The pair has rallied significantly off the 0.69 bottom recently, sitting between two powerful forces.
On one side, the US dollar has weakened following softer-than-expected retail sales and reports of China urging banks to curb exposure to US Treasuries. On the other, the Australian dollar has been buoyed by the RBA’s unique hawkish stance.
From a technical perspective, the break above 0.7000 brings a critical "Magnet Zone" at 0.7216 into focus—a level where multiple Fibonacci projections converge. A clear break here could signal a medium-term structural shift towards 0.7300.
Key topics covered
AUD/USD scenarios
Are you buying the dip or fading the rally at the magnet zone? Share your thoughts in the comments.
This content is not directed at residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analysis, prices or other information provided are for general market commentary only and do not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets accepts no liability for any loss or damage, including loss of profit, arising directly or indirectly from reliance on this information.
On one side, the US dollar has weakened following softer-than-expected retail sales and reports of China urging banks to curb exposure to US Treasuries. On the other, the Australian dollar has been buoyed by the RBA’s unique hawkish stance.
From a technical perspective, the break above 0.7000 brings a critical "Magnet Zone" at 0.7216 into focus—a level where multiple Fibonacci projections converge. A clear break here could signal a medium-term structural shift towards 0.7300.
Key topics covered
- USD weakness: How missed retail sales and China’s directive on US Treasuries have pressured the greenback, fuelling the move away from the 0.6940 support.
- RBA hawkishness: Why the RBA remains the only major bank outside Japan maintaining a tightening cycle, with markets pricing a 70% chance of another hike in May following Deputy Governor Hauser’s comments.
- The Magnet Zone: Why the 0.7216 level is a critical target, representing both the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the 100% extension of two different legs.
- Elliott Wave structure: Identifying the current move as a potential 3rd wave impulse, but why RSI divergence suggests a correction (Wave 4) may be likely after hitting the magnet zone.
AUD/USD scenarios
- Bullish: A sustained push through the 0.7216 magnet zone signals strong momentum, targeting the 0.7300 analyst forecast and potentially the 0.8000 structural high in the medium-long term.
- Bearish: RSI divergence triggers a rejection at the 0.7216 cluster, leading to a Wave 4 correction back towards the 0.7000 handle before any further upside.
Are you buying the dip or fading the rally at the magnet zone? Share your thoughts in the comments.
This content is not directed at residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analysis, prices or other information provided are for general market commentary only and do not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets accepts no liability for any loss or damage, including loss of profit, arising directly or indirectly from reliance on this information.
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Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, alım satım veya diğer türden tavsiye veya öneriler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Koşulları bölümünde daha fazlasını okuyun.
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, alım satım veya diğer türden tavsiye veya öneriler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Koşulları bölümünde daha fazlasını okuyun.