The macro narrative as we head into this week is dominated by the delicate balance between geopolitical tension and shifting liquidity expectations 🏦. With the dust settling from recent volatility in the Middle East and oil prices retracing, market chatter suggests a "redemption trade" is underway. Interestingly, general online sentiment is heavily leaning into a cautious "rebound" narrative, yet we remain in a regime of "Extreme Fear" globally. This disconnect tells me that while retail is fearful of further downside, institutional flows via spot ETFs—which now hold nearly 6% of the total supply—are quietly forming a structural floor. We are essentially in a high-stakes standoff ahead of the March 17-18 FOMC meeting, where any deviation in inflation data could serve as the catalyst to either validate this recovery or flush out the remaining late-cycle longs.
We are seeing a clear Distribution-to-Reaccumulation transition phase on the H4 timeframe 📈. Applying Wyckoff logic, the recent sweep below the $65,000 zone appears to have acted as a "Spring" or a massive liquidity grab, clearing out the weak hands before the current markup toward the range high. Widespread community chatter is currently calling for a "double top" at the $73,000 resistance, but the price action is showing aggressive absorption. We are currently in a state of Discovery above the primary high-volume node, suggesting that if we can flip this resistance into support, the path toward a "Value Area" expansion is wide open.
Key Zone: The confluence of the Weekly VWAP and the Volume Profile shows a glaring High Volume Node (HVN) centered around $68,475 📉. This is the "fair value" where the most business has been conducted. The current price action is testing the Value Area High (VAH) near $73,000. If we fail to sustain trade above this level, the "Gravity" of the Point of Control (POC) at $68k will likely pull us back into a balanced range.
We are currently trading at the very edge of the range, effectively the "Decision Point" for the monthly trend 🧹. I am watching for a 'run on liquidity' to sweep the late buyers who are chasing the $72,000 break before a potential institutional "re-test" of the breakout zone. My view is that the market is baiting retail to go long at the top; I prefer to see a confirmed "SFP" (Swing Failure Pattern) or a successful back-test of the $71,500 level before committing to the next leg of price discovery.
My Trade Plan 🎯
Bias: Bullish (with extreme patience).
Entry Protocol: I am looking for a Value Area Flip. Specifically, a H4 candle close above $73,500 followed by a "retest and reject" of the former resistance (now support) at $73,000. Alternatively, if the market rejects here, I will wait for a mean-reversion entry at the VWAP/POC confluence near $68,500 to catch the bounce from the value floor.
We are seeing a clear Distribution-to-Reaccumulation transition phase on the H4 timeframe 📈. Applying Wyckoff logic, the recent sweep below the $65,000 zone appears to have acted as a "Spring" or a massive liquidity grab, clearing out the weak hands before the current markup toward the range high. Widespread community chatter is currently calling for a "double top" at the $73,000 resistance, but the price action is showing aggressive absorption. We are currently in a state of Discovery above the primary high-volume node, suggesting that if we can flip this resistance into support, the path toward a "Value Area" expansion is wide open.
Key Zone: The confluence of the Weekly VWAP and the Volume Profile shows a glaring High Volume Node (HVN) centered around $68,475 📉. This is the "fair value" where the most business has been conducted. The current price action is testing the Value Area High (VAH) near $73,000. If we fail to sustain trade above this level, the "Gravity" of the Point of Control (POC) at $68k will likely pull us back into a balanced range.
We are currently trading at the very edge of the range, effectively the "Decision Point" for the monthly trend 🧹. I am watching for a 'run on liquidity' to sweep the late buyers who are chasing the $72,000 break before a potential institutional "re-test" of the breakout zone. My view is that the market is baiting retail to go long at the top; I prefer to see a confirmed "SFP" (Swing Failure Pattern) or a successful back-test of the $71,500 level before committing to the next leg of price discovery.
My Trade Plan 🎯
Bias: Bullish (with extreme patience).
Entry Protocol: I am looking for a Value Area Flip. Specifically, a H4 candle close above $73,500 followed by a "retest and reject" of the former resistance (now support) at $73,000. Alternatively, if the market rejects here, I will wait for a mean-reversion entry at the VWAP/POC confluence near $68,500 to catch the bounce from the value floor.
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👉🔗 youtu.be/mxF2qol_hjA
👀 👇🏻Copy my VIP Telegram signals for FREE:
🚀🔗 anthonyfx.com/anthonyfx_copy/
📲 Telegram: t.me/anthonys_forex
💬 Discord: discord.com/invite/PcBeCdwVQq
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, alım satım veya diğer türden tavsiye veya öneriler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Koşulları bölümünde daha fazlasını okuyun.
👀 👇🏻 EASY Forex Signals:
👉🔗 youtu.be/mxF2qol_hjA
👀 👇🏻Copy my VIP Telegram signals for FREE:
🚀🔗 anthonyfx.com/anthonyfx_copy/
📲 Telegram: t.me/anthonys_forex
💬 Discord: discord.com/invite/PcBeCdwVQq
👉🔗 youtu.be/mxF2qol_hjA
👀 👇🏻Copy my VIP Telegram signals for FREE:
🚀🔗 anthonyfx.com/anthonyfx_copy/
📲 Telegram: t.me/anthonys_forex
💬 Discord: discord.com/invite/PcBeCdwVQq
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, alım satım veya diğer türden tavsiye veya öneriler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Koşulları bölümünde daha fazlasını okuyun.