Fundamental analysis
The US dollar index remains supported by elevated Treasury yields, although recent data present a mixed outlook for further Fed tightening. Sep payrolls increased by just 29k (prev. 89k), while unemployment rose to 4.2% and annual wage growth slowed to 3.0% YoY. Meanwhile, the Sep ISM US Service PMI showed continuing strong expansion despite the slower growth, signaling resilience in US economic growth that may continue to add a premium to bond yields alongside the term premium on long-end bonds amid government debt concerns and robust funding demand for AI CAPEX.
Despite recent easing in CPI and PCE inflation and labor market cooling that tempered the Oct rush to hike rates, market expectations remain priced for nearly four additional rate hikes through July 2027.
Technical analysis
DXY trades near 101.95 within a rising four-hour channel, maintaining higher highs and higher lows above both rising moving averages. The bias remains bullish while 101.50 and the channel’s lower boundary hold, with resistance at 102.20.
A sustained close above 102.20 would confirm bullish continuation, opening the way toward 102.80, with the ascending channel’s upper boundary providing the next resistance area.
Conversely, a four-hour close below 101.50 and the channel floor would weaken the bullish structure, exposing 101.00 as the next support and increasing correction risk.
By Van Ha Trinh - Financial Market Strategist at Exness.
The US dollar index remains supported by elevated Treasury yields, although recent data present a mixed outlook for further Fed tightening. Sep payrolls increased by just 29k (prev. 89k), while unemployment rose to 4.2% and annual wage growth slowed to 3.0% YoY. Meanwhile, the Sep ISM US Service PMI showed continuing strong expansion despite the slower growth, signaling resilience in US economic growth that may continue to add a premium to bond yields alongside the term premium on long-end bonds amid government debt concerns and robust funding demand for AI CAPEX.
Despite recent easing in CPI and PCE inflation and labor market cooling that tempered the Oct rush to hike rates, market expectations remain priced for nearly four additional rate hikes through July 2027.
Technical analysis
DXY trades near 101.95 within a rising four-hour channel, maintaining higher highs and higher lows above both rising moving averages. The bias remains bullish while 101.50 and the channel’s lower boundary hold, with resistance at 102.20.
A sustained close above 102.20 would confirm bullish continuation, opening the way toward 102.80, with the ascending channel’s upper boundary providing the next resistance area.
Conversely, a four-hour close below 101.50 and the channel floor would weaken the bullish structure, exposing 101.00 as the next support and increasing correction risk.
By Van Ha Trinh - Financial Market Strategist at Exness.
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, alım satım veya diğer türden tavsiye veya öneriler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Koşulları bölümünde daha fazlasını okuyun.
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, alım satım veya diğer türden tavsiye veya öneriler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Koşulları bölümünde daha fazlasını okuyun.