📊 Trade Plan:
🔻 Entry: 1.14050
🛑 Stop Loss: above 100 EMA / supply zone
🎯 Take Profit 1: 1.13630
🎯 Take Profit 2: 1.13220
📉 Technical Picture (H4 & Daily):
100 EMA: Price bounced clean off the 100 EMA. Dynamic resistance held.
MACD: Histogram below zero. Lines crossing below the zero mark — bearish momentum confirmed.
🐻 COT Report — Bearish Signal:
The latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report shows growing bearish sentiment on the euro:
Non-commercial longs cut by 9,410 contracts
Non-commercial shorts increased by 16,117 contracts
Net long position hit a 3-month low for large speculators
Hedgers' net position fell to a 16-month low
For two straight weeks, traders have reduced net EUR longs. The net position is attempting to break below a 2-month consolidation. If this trend continues, EURUSD could see further downside.
🗞️ Fundamental Note:
Trump ended the US-Iran MoU: "The memorandum of understanding with Iran is over." US airstrikes followed Iranian attacks on vessels in Hormuz. Flight-to-safety boosted the Dollar. ECB's Schnabel warned Iran conflict keeps core inflation elevated. Panetta flagged fragile outlook. Geopolitical chaos + hawkish ECB uncertainty = EUR under pressure.
❌ Invalidation:
A daily close above the 100 EMA voids the short setup.
🔻 Entry: 1.14050
🛑 Stop Loss: above 100 EMA / supply zone
🎯 Take Profit 1: 1.13630
🎯 Take Profit 2: 1.13220
📉 Technical Picture (H4 & Daily):
100 EMA: Price bounced clean off the 100 EMA. Dynamic resistance held.
MACD: Histogram below zero. Lines crossing below the zero mark — bearish momentum confirmed.
🐻 COT Report — Bearish Signal:
The latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report shows growing bearish sentiment on the euro:
Non-commercial longs cut by 9,410 contracts
Non-commercial shorts increased by 16,117 contracts
Net long position hit a 3-month low for large speculators
Hedgers' net position fell to a 16-month low
For two straight weeks, traders have reduced net EUR longs. The net position is attempting to break below a 2-month consolidation. If this trend continues, EURUSD could see further downside.
🗞️ Fundamental Note:
Trump ended the US-Iran MoU: "The memorandum of understanding with Iran is over." US airstrikes followed Iranian attacks on vessels in Hormuz. Flight-to-safety boosted the Dollar. ECB's Schnabel warned Iran conflict keeps core inflation elevated. Panetta flagged fragile outlook. Geopolitical chaos + hawkish ECB uncertainty = EUR under pressure.
❌ Invalidation:
A daily close above the 100 EMA voids the short setup.
📊 Follow for daily Market Summary, Technical & Fundamental Analysis
👉 t.me/elibrianalytics
👉 t.me/elibrianalytics
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, alım satım veya diğer türden tavsiye veya öneriler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Koşulları bölümünde daha fazlasını okuyun.
📊 Follow for daily Market Summary, Technical & Fundamental Analysis
👉 t.me/elibrianalytics
👉 t.me/elibrianalytics
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, alım satım veya diğer türden tavsiye veya öneriler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Koşulları bölümünde daha fazlasını okuyun.