GBP/JPY – Bearish Continuation Setup | Possible Pullback to 203
1️⃣ Technical Context
On the daily chart, GBP/JPY is trading around 201.12, moving inside a descending channel that began in mid-October. Price action has recently tested the lower boundary of the channel and the 200.00–200.70 demand zone, showing a short-term bullish reaction but no confirmed structural reversal yet.
The RSI daily near 30 suggests a potential short-term rebound but no confirmed bullish reversal.
Key Levels
Resistance: 203.50 / 204.50 (upper channel + previous supply)
Support: 200.00 / 199.00 (demand + psychological level)
Technical Bias: Bearish below 203.50; only a daily close above 204.00 would invalidate the bearish setup.
2️⃣ COT Data (stable due to shutdown)
Latest available report:
JPY: Net long positions increased by +14,727 among non-commercials, while commercials remain heavily short (hedging). This indicates a structural strengthening of the Yen.
GBP: Net short positions remain stable (-3,392), with a slight increase in non-commercial longs (+3,704) but not enough to shift sentiment.
→ Interpretation: The COT context confirms a pro-JPY bias and weak GBP outlook, maintaining a bearish fundamental bias for GBP/JPY.
3️⃣ Seasonality
November seasonality shows a negative pattern for GBP/JPY, especially on the 10–20 year horizon.
20-year avg: -0.69%
10-year avg: -1.31%
Only the 2-year cycle shows a mild positive move (+0.88%), suggesting that mid-term seasonality supports bearish pressure until mid-November, followed by a potential technical rebound later in the month.
4️⃣ Retail Sentiment
Short: 64%
Long: 36%
Most retail traders are short, with an average short entry around 195.98, well below the current market price at 201.
→ This means the majority are still in profit, which increases the likelihood of a short-term bullish squeeze before the next downward move resumes.
✅ COT favors JPY strength
✅ Seasonality remains negative for GBP/JPY
✅ Technical structure confirms lower highs
⚠️ Retail positioning suggests possible short-term fakeout to the upside
GBP/JPY remains in a bearish continuation context, consistent with Yen strength and negative seasonality. However, a technical pullback toward 203.00–203.50 is likely before a renewed bearish impulse targeting the 198.50 area.
On the daily chart, GBP/JPY is trading around 201.12, moving inside a descending channel that began in mid-October. Price action has recently tested the lower boundary of the channel and the 200.00–200.70 demand zone, showing a short-term bullish reaction but no confirmed structural reversal yet.
The RSI daily near 30 suggests a potential short-term rebound but no confirmed bullish reversal.
Key Levels
Resistance: 203.50 / 204.50 (upper channel + previous supply)
Support: 200.00 / 199.00 (demand + psychological level)
Technical Bias: Bearish below 203.50; only a daily close above 204.00 would invalidate the bearish setup.
2️⃣ COT Data (stable due to shutdown)
Latest available report:
JPY: Net long positions increased by +14,727 among non-commercials, while commercials remain heavily short (hedging). This indicates a structural strengthening of the Yen.
GBP: Net short positions remain stable (-3,392), with a slight increase in non-commercial longs (+3,704) but not enough to shift sentiment.
→ Interpretation: The COT context confirms a pro-JPY bias and weak GBP outlook, maintaining a bearish fundamental bias for GBP/JPY.
3️⃣ Seasonality
November seasonality shows a negative pattern for GBP/JPY, especially on the 10–20 year horizon.
20-year avg: -0.69%
10-year avg: -1.31%
Only the 2-year cycle shows a mild positive move (+0.88%), suggesting that mid-term seasonality supports bearish pressure until mid-November, followed by a potential technical rebound later in the month.
4️⃣ Retail Sentiment
Short: 64%
Long: 36%
Most retail traders are short, with an average short entry around 195.98, well below the current market price at 201.
→ This means the majority are still in profit, which increases the likelihood of a short-term bullish squeeze before the next downward move resumes.
✅ COT favors JPY strength
✅ Seasonality remains negative for GBP/JPY
✅ Technical structure confirms lower highs
⚠️ Retail positioning suggests possible short-term fakeout to the upside
GBP/JPY remains in a bearish continuation context, consistent with Yen strength and negative seasonality. However, a technical pullback toward 203.00–203.50 is likely before a renewed bearish impulse targeting the 198.50 area.
İşlem aktif
GBP/JPY - THe chart showes an ipotetic entry after the grab of liquidity on the daily gap on tuesday. On H1 chart is it possibile to see the entry during London session, perfect bullish BOS.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, alım satım veya diğer türden tavsiye veya öneriler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Koşulları bölümünde daha fazlasını okuyun.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, alım satım veya diğer türden tavsiye veya öneriler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Koşulları bölümünde daha fazlasını okuyun.