The Day Ahead

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Monday, September 15:

Markets are focused on China’s August data (retail sales, industrial output, property metrics) for signals on global demand, with stronger prints supportive of commodities and cyclicals, while weakness in property could weigh on sentiment. In the US, the Empire Manufacturing index offers an early read on September activity; softer figures would reinforce expectations for Fed easing. In Europe, Germany’s wholesale prices and ECB commentary (Lagarde, Schnabel, Kocher) will be parsed for disinflation and policy signals, with a dovish tone likely to pressure the EUR and support Bunds. Canada’s housing and manufacturing data could sway BoC expectations. Overall, equities will take their lead from China, bonds from US data and ECB tone, and FX from policy divergence.

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